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选民民调分析:美国广播公司新闻选民民调解析民主党如何赢得美国众议院ABC News Voter Polls explain how Democrats won the US House: Voter Poll analysis

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2026年11月3日,华盛顿,选举日傍晚的美国国会大厦日落景象。凯文·迪奇/盖蒂图片社The sun sets on the U.S. Capitol on Election Day evening on November 3, 2026 in Washington. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

民主党预计将时隔四年再次夺回众议院控制权。在一场唐纳德·特朗普总统的阴影笼罩整个选举进程的选举中,民主党预计将自2020年以来首次夺回众议院控制权。

Democrats are projected to retake the House for the first time since 2020. Democrats are projected to retake the House for the first time since 2020 in an election where President Donald Trump’s shadow loomed large over the proceedings.

民主党在许多群体中的得票率均实现了虽小但实质性的提升,并得益于特朗普的极度不受欢迎以及选民对经济的负面看法。

Democrats made small but substantive improvements in their share of the vote across many groups and benefited from Trump’s deep unpopularity and voters' negativity about the economy.

根据美国广播公司(ABC News)的选民民调,约60%在众议院选举中投票的美国人不认可特朗普作为总统的表现,其中53%强烈不认可。

According to ABC News Voter Polls, about 6 in 10 Americans who voted on U.S. House races disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, including 53% who strongly disapprove.

强烈不认可特朗普的选民以89个百分点的优势支持民主党众议院候选人。仅有两成左右的众议院选举选民强烈认可特朗普,他们以96个百分点的优势支持共和党。

Voters who strongly disapproved of Trump supported Democrats for the House by an 89-percentage point margin. Just 2 in 10 voters in U.S. House races strongly approved of Trump and they supported Republicans by a 96-point margin.

根据美国广播公司的选民民调,超过一半的众议院选举选民强烈不认可特朗普作为总统的表现,这是自2008年大选(当时乔治·W·布什为总统、贝拉克·奥巴马当选)以来,任何在任总统面临的最高强烈不认可比例。

And more than half of voters for U.S. House strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, according to ABC News Voter Polling, that's the highest strong disapproval share for any president dating back to the 2008 election when George W. Bush was president and Barack Obama was elected.

约三分之二的众议院选举选民认为特朗普的优先事项错误,比例相近的选民认为他将个人利益置于国家利益之上。根据美国广播公司的选民民调,这两类选民分别以69个百分点和73个百分点的优势选择民主党而非共和党的众议院候选人。

About two-thirds of those who voted in House races say Trump has the wrong priorities and a similar share says he prioritizes his own personal interests over those of the country. These voters chose Democrats for the U.S. House over Republicans by 69 percentage points and 73 points, respectively, according to ABC News voter polling.

根据美国广播公司的选民民调,在众议院选举中投票的美国人中,表示投票是为了表达对特朗普的反对而非支持的人数比为43%对16%,其中96%投给了民主党。

More Americans who voted in U.S. House races say their vote was to express opposition to Trump rather than support for him in ABC News voter polling, 43% to 16% and 96% of them voted for Democrats.

2026年11月3日,加利福尼亚州贝克斯菲尔德,选民在克恩县选举办公室填写选票。马里奥·塔马/盖蒂图片社Voters mark their ballots in the Kern County Elections Office, Nov. 3, 2026, in Bakersfield, Calif. Mario Tama/Getty Images

四分之三的这些选民对经济状况给予,他们以40个百分点的优势支持民主党。在约三分之一给予经济“差”评价的选民中,他们以71个百分点的优势支持民主党。

Three-quarters of these voters rated the state of the economy negatively and they supported Democrats by 40 percentage points. Among the roughly one-third of voters who rated the economy poorly, they supported Democrats by 71 points.

大约七成在众议院选举中投票的美国人认为,美国经济体系总体上偏向富人,而非对大多数美国人公平,他们以约三比一的比例支持民主党。

About 7 in 10 Americans who voted on House races say the U.S. economic system generally favors the wealthy rather than being fair to most Americans and they supported the Democrats by about a 3-to-1 margin.

更多人表示,过去两年自家财务状况变差而非变好,这一比例超过二比一,他们大多支持民主党。

More say their family’s financial situation has gotten worse than better in the past two years by more than a 2-to-1 margin and they largely supported Democrats.

2026年11月3日,缅因州南波特兰,中期选举选举日当天,人们在一个投票站投票。安吉拉·韦斯/法新社通过盖蒂图片社People vote at a polling location on Election Day during the midterm elections in South Portland, Maine on Nov. 3, 2026. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

约八成在众议院选举中投票的美国人认为,过去一年通胀给其家庭造成了严重或 moderate 的困难,其中大多数人支持民主党。据ABC新闻选民民调,62%的这类选民将高于平常的物价归咎于特朗普的政策,而非他无法控制的因素。

About 8 in 10 Americans who voted in House races felt inflation had caused their family severe or moderate hardship in the past year, with most of them supporting Democrats. And 62% of these voters blamed Trump’s policies for higher than usual prices rather than factors outside of his control, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

据ABC新闻选民民调,民主党的好感度略高于共和党——分别为47%和41%——并且在对两党都不抱好感的15%“双重厌恶者”中,以25个百分点的优势领先。

The Democratic Party held a slight advantage in favorability over Republicans -- 47% vs 41% -- and also won a 25-percentage point lead among the 15% of "double haters" who are unfavorable of both parties, per ABC News Voter Polls.

ABC新闻选民民调发现,民主党在30岁以下众议院选举选民中扩大了其通常的大幅领先优势,如今赢得约四分之三的选票,而2024年仅略高于一半。

ABC News Voter Polls find that Democrats improved on their typical wide lead among voters in House races who are under 30, winning roughly three quarters of their votes today, compared with just more than half in 2024.

据ABC新闻选民民调,约三分之一选民不认同任何主要政党,但他们在美国众议院选举中以56%对39%的比例支持民主党。

About a third of voters don't identify with either major political party but they backed Democrats in U.S. House races by a 56% to 39% margin, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

据爱迪生研究公司,在此前两次选举中,独立选民在两党之间大致平分。

In the previous two elections, independent voters split roughly evenly between the two parties, according to Edison Research.

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