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美国财政部调整措辞,为拍卖规模变化打开大门US Treasury shifts language, opening door to auction size changes

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2026年7月11日,美国华盛顿特区,美国财政部大楼。路透社/丹尼尔·霍伊尔/资料照片The US Department of the Treasury Building in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 11, 2026. REUTERS/Daniel Heuer/File Photo

美国财政部周三调整了关于未来拍卖规模的措辞,这一转变令分析师预期将为短期和中期债务的更大规模发行铺平道路,并可能削减长期拍卖规模。

The US Treasury Department on Wednesday altered its language regarding future auction sizes in a shift that analysts expect will pave the way for larger sales of short- and intermediate-dated debt and possible cuts to longer-dated auctions.

此举紧随上个月一场惨烈的债券抛售,当时10年期和30年期美国国债收益率升至2002年以来的最高水平。

The move follows a bruising bond selloff last month that pushed 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2002.

财政部在其指引中删去了“至少”一词,声称预计将在“未来几个季度”内维持浮息债券和固定利率债券的拍卖规模不变。许多解读认为,“几个”意指两个季度,这意味着可能的变动将出现在2027年上半年。

Treasury dropped the term "at least” in its guidance, stating that it expects to keep floating-rate note and coupon auction sizes unchanged “for the next several quarters.”Many analysts interpret “several” to mean two quarters, which would mean possible changes in the first half of 2027.

20年期和30年期拍卖有时难以吸引需求,被视为最可能被削减的品种。固定利率债券的增发规模可能集中在2年至7年期领域,并可能包括10年期债券。

The 20- and 30-year auctions, which have at times struggled to attract demand, are seen as the most likely to be cut. Coupon increases would probably be concentrated in the 2- to 7-year sector, and possibly in 10-year notes.

关于未来拍卖规模削减的猜测始于8月,当时财政部表示,继续评估对其固定利率和浮息债券拍卖规模进行潜在未来调整的可能性。这与5月再融资公告形成对比,后者曾指向可能的增发。

Speculation about future auction size cuts was sparked in August when Treasury said that it continued to evaluate potential future changes to its coupon and floating-rate auction sizes. That was a change from its May refunding announcement, which had pointed to possible increases.

不过,并非所有人都预期长期债务会被削减,如果财政部的融资需求增长快于预期,其可能难以缩减拍卖规模。未偿还国债在过去十年间翻了一倍多,从14万亿美元增至33万亿美元。

Not everyone expects cuts to longer-dated debt, though, and Treasury may struggle to reduce auction sizes if its funding needs grow faster than expected. Outstanding Treasury debt has more than doubled over the past decade, from $14 trillion to $33 trillion.

财政部还表示,将根据结构性需求趋势以及各种发行概况的潜在成本和风险,评估对拍卖规模进行潜在未来调整的可能性。

The Treasury also said it will evaluate potential future changes to auction sizes based on trends in structural demand and the potential costs and risks of various issuance profiles.

这将包括财政部与市场参与者接触,以更好地了解不断演变的国债供需动态,政府将寻求随时间推移以最低成本进行融资。

This will include the Treasury engaging with market participants to better understand evolving Treasury supply and demand dynamics, and the government will seek financing at the lowest cost over time.

美国财政部表示,将把7年期国债转为季度拍卖,并附带两次重新开放拍卖。财政部还预计将在12月削减短期国库券拍卖规模,并根据季节性财政支出流出,在1月全面提高国库券拍卖规模。

The Treasury said it will convert the 7-year Treasury into a quarterly auction with two reopenings. It will also expect to cut short-term bill auction sizes in December, and raise them across the bill curve in January based on seasonal fiscal outflows.

财政部预计将为流动性目的,在全期限范围内回购高达700亿美元国债,并将继续评估回购操作可能的改进措施,例如调整最大购买金额。

It expects to buy back up to $70 billion in Treasuries across the curve for liquidity purposes and will continue to evaluate possible enhancements to the buyback operations such as changes to maximum purchase amounts.

财政部表示,下周将发售1250亿美元国债。这将包括580亿美元3年期票据、420亿美元10年期票据和250亿美元30年期债券。

The Treasury said it will sell $125 billion next week. This will include $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year bonds.

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