美国财政部修改了自2024年初以来一直沿用的附息国债和债券销售指引，此举可能为2027年削减最长期限债务的发行打开大门。
The US Treasury revamped the guidance on sales of notes and bonds it has used since early 2024, in a move that may open the door to cuts in the issuance of the longest-dated debt in 2027.
财政部在周三的一份声明中表示：“基于当前预测的借款需求，财政部预计在未来几个季度将维持名义附息国债和浮动利率国债的拍卖规模不变。”官员们两年多来一直表示，此类拍卖将在“至少”几个季度内保持不变。
“Based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for the next several quarters,” the department said in a statement Wednesday. FRNs refers to floating rate notes. Officials had for more than two years said such auctions would be unchanged for “at least” several quarters.
去掉“至少”这一限定词，可能使市场最早在2027年就看到长期债务发行量减少。财政部表示，“将与各类市场参与者接触，以更好地了解不断变化的美国国债供需动态。”多数交易商此前预计指引会出现某种调整，这是财政部长斯科特·贝森特为抑制今年长期收益率上升所做努力的最新例证。此前，他在8月债务管理计划发布仅两周后出人意料地扩大了财政部的存量证券回购计划。
Dropping the “at least” qualification potentially brings into view for as soon as 2027 reduced issuance of long-dated debt. The Treasury said it “will engage with a variety of market participants to better understand evolving Treasury supply and demand dynamics.”Most dealers had expected some alteration in guidance to emerge as the latest example of efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to temper this year’s rise in longer-term yields. That’s after his shock expansion of the department’s buyback program for outstanding securities just two weeks after the August debt-management plan.
这一举措未能阻止收益率上升，30年期利率上月进一步飙升至2002年以来的最高水平。市场参与者对周三声明可能带来何种变化看法分歧很大，一些人在收益率已从10月初高点回落后认为几乎不会有变化或完全没有变化。
That maneuver failed to halt the rise in yields, with 30-year rates going on to surge to the highest since 2002 last month. The range of views among market participants was wide on what Wednesday’s statement might bring, with some seeing little or no change after yields had come off their early-October highs.
关于回购，财政部周三表示，即将进行的较长期美国国债操作的最高购买金额将为60亿美元。这与近期做法一致，而近期做法已将此前金额提高了两倍。
With regard to the buybacks, the Treasury said Wednesday that upcoming operations for longer-dated Treasuries would have a maximum purchase amount of $6 billion. That’s in line with recent practice, which marked a tripling of previous amounts.
声明称：“财政部将继续评估回购操作可能的改进措施，例如调整最高购买金额、回购操作的时间安排和频率、证券资格以及执行流程。”
“Treasury will continue to evaluate possible enhancements to buyback operations such as changes to maximum purchase amounts, buyback operation scheduling and frequency, security eligibility, and execution process,” the statement said.
在8月5日发布的上一份再融资声明中，财政部对其债券发行指引做出了微妙调整，称官员们正在评估未来可能对附息债券和浮动利率票据发行进行的“变化”，而非“增加”——这为未来减少供应打开了大门。
The Treasury had made a subtle shift to its debt-sales guidance at its last refunding statement, on Aug. 5, saying officials were evaluating potential future “changes” in coupon and floating-rate note sales rather than “increases” — opening the door to a future reduction in supply.
在为周三的声明做准备时，财政部利用其例行的再融资前一级交易商问卷调查，询问了“投资者对国债需求的结构性变化”以及“财政部应考虑对拍卖规模做出哪些未来调整”。官员和市场参与者都注意到，近年来，固定收益养老金基金等机构对长期资产的需求正在减弱。
And in preparing for Wednesday’s statement, the Treasury used its regular pre-refunding questionnaire of primary dealers to ask about “structural changes in investor demand” for Treasuries, and “what futures changes to auction sizes should Treasury consider.”Both officials and market participants had noted waning demand for long-dated assets from the likes of defined-benefit pension funds in recent years.
至于下周的再融资拍卖——连续第11次总额为1250亿美元——将由以下部分组成：政府每年的赤字约为2万亿美元，需要越来越多的国债发行。这体现为对短期国库券的日益依赖，此类债券期限最长可达一年。
As for next week’s refunding auctions — totaling $125 billion for the 11th straight time — they will be made up of: The government is running annual deficits of around $2 trillion, requiring greater and greater Treasury issuance. That’s featured increasing reliance on bills, which mature in up to a year.
然而，短期国库券占未偿债务的比例已经高于历史常态，而且由于它们必须按市场现行利率进行再融资，美国的偿债成本正变得对冲击更加敏感。与此同时，美联储自2023年以来首次上调了关键利率，投资者押注未来几个月还会有进一步行动。
However, the ratio of bills to outstanding debt is already above historical norms, and since they must be refinanced at prevailing market interest rates, the nation’s debt-servicing costs are becoming more sensitive to shocks. That’s at a time when the Federal Reserve has hiked its key rate for the first time since 2023, with investors betting on further moves in coming months.
自从贝森特的继任者、前任财政部长珍妮特·耶伦确立了当前指引——即预计未来几个季度将保持中期票据和长期债券发行稳定——以来，交易商一直预期增发终将恢复。
Ever since Bessent’s predecessor, Janet Yellen, established the current guidance about expecting to hold note and bond sales steady for quarters to come, dealers have expected increases to resume in time.
早在2025年2月，财政部借款咨询委员会——一个由债券投资者、交易商及其他市场参与者组成的小组，财政部在作出再融资决定前会向其征询意见——就建议财政部取消或修改其前瞻指引。今年8月，该委员会建议“财政部考虑更新其前瞻指引措辞，以在进入2027财年之际保留灵活性”。
As far back as February 2025, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee — a panel of bond investors, dealers and other market participants that the Treasury consults ahead of refunding decisions — recommended that the department remove or modify its forward guidance. In August of this year, they recommended that the “Treasury consider updating its forward-guidance language to preserve flexibility” heading into the 2027 fiscal year.
在周三的一份声明中，财政部借款咨询委员会建议财政部修改其前瞻指引措辞，并“强调清晰的沟通加上定期且可预测的操作框架，对于帮助市场参与者适应未来变化仍然十分重要”。
In a statement Wednesday, the TBAC recommended that the Treasury change its forward-guidance language and “emphasized that clear communication alongside a regular and predictable operating framework remains important to help market participants adjust to future changes.”