美国财政部预计将在本周的季度再融资公告中维持票面拍卖规模不变，但投资者关注的是2027年可能出现的变化，以帮助为不断扩大的财政赤字以及未来几年将到期的政府债券潮融资。
The US Treasury is widely expected to leave coupon auction sizes unchanged at this week's quarterly refunding announcement, but investors are focused on possible changes in 2027 that will help finance growing deficits and a wave of government debt maturing in the coming years.
一级交易商普遍预计，财政部明年某个时间点将削减20年期和30年期债券的拍卖规模，同时增加2年期至10年期期限的发行量，以抵消因长期借贷减少而产生的资金缺口。这一举措可能通过减少收益率曲线远端的债券供应来帮助限制长期借贷成本，该端的收益率一直居高不下。
Primary dealers broadly expect that the Treasury will at some point next year cut auction sizes of 20-year and 30-year bonds while boosting issuance of 2-year to 10-year maturities to offset the funding gap created by reduced long-dated borrowing. The move could help limit long-term borrowing costs by reducing the supply of debt at the far end of the curve, where yields have remained elevated.
财政部将于周一晚些时候发布季度融资估计，随后于周三发布再融资公告。再融资公告概述了第四季度及2027年头三个月的政府融资计划，包括3年期和10年期票据以及30年期债券的拍卖规模。
The Treasury will release its quarterly financing estimates later on Monday, followed by the refunding announcement on Wednesday. The refunding outlines government financing plans for the fourth quarter and the first three months of 2027, including auction sizes for 3-year and 10-year notes as well as 30-year bonds.
“市场普遍预期美国财政部可能会在此次再融资公告中预示一些变化，特别是削减远端拍卖规模，”法国巴黎银行纽约分行美国利率策略主管古尼特·丁格拉（Guneet Dhingra）表示。
"Expectations have been built up that the US Treasury might foreshadow some changes at this refunding announcement, particularly cuts to the long-end auction sizes," said Guneet Dhingra, head of US rates strategy at BNP Paribas in New York.
“请记住，财政部已表示，未来几个季度将维持票面规模不变。因此，任何实际变化都将在未来几个季度之后，这意味着最早也要到2027年8月之前不会有任何变动，”丁格拉表示。
"Keep in mind, the Treasury has said they'll be holding coupon sizes steady for the next several quarters. So anything that actually changes is going to be after the next several quarters, which probably means nothing before August 2027 at the earliest," Dhingra said.
在财政部的一份问卷中询问一级交易商，鉴于预期的借款需求和投资者需求，应考虑哪些“未来拍卖规模的变化”后，对调整票面拍卖规模的论点更加充分。
The case for changes to coupon auction sizes strengthened after the Treasury asked primary dealers in a questionnaire what "future changes to auction sizes" should be considered given expected borrowing needs and investor demand.
近几周，关于财政部可能削减20年期和30年期债券发行的猜测日益增多，这反映了政策制定者可能寻求减缓长期收益率上升的预期。财政部已将10年到20年期债务的回购规模提高至每期高达60亿美元，但收益率仍居高不下。
Speculation that the Treasury could trim issuance of 20-year and 30-year bonds has grown in recent weeks, reflecting expectations that policymakers may look for ways to slow the climb in long-term yields. The Treasury has already increased buybacks of debt maturing in the 10- to 20-year sector to as much as $6 billion, yet yields have remained stubbornly elevated.
富国银行美国利率策略师安杰洛·马诺拉托斯表示，更重要的因素正在推高美国国债长期收益率，限制了财政部供应变化对降低收益率可能产生的影响。
Angelo Manolatos, US rates strategist at Wells Fargo, said more significant factors are pushing long-term Treasury yields higher, limiting the impact any changes in Treasury supply may have on lowering them.
“债券收益率要下行，我们需要看到经济增长和增长预期放缓，”马诺拉托斯说。“我们还需要看到能源价格下降，这些才是推动长端收益率下行的真正驱动因素。”财政部在未来几个季度预计将大量依赖短期国库券发行来满足其借款需求。TD证券预测，2026年11月至2027年1月期间的国库券净供应量为6780亿美元。
"For bond yields to move lower, we'll need to see a slowing in growth and growth expectations," Manolatos said. "We also need to see lower energy prices and those are going to be the real drivers of lower longer-end yields." The Treasury is also expected to rely on short-term bill issuance heavily in the upcoming quarters to address its borrowing needs. TD Securities is forecasting net bill supply of $678 billion for the November 2026 to January 2027 period.
TD证券美国利率策略主管根纳季·戈德堡表示，国库券供应增加、利率预期上升以及货币市场基金流入减少，推高了国库券收益率。“我们预计对国库券供应的大量依赖将持续，”戈德堡说。
Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities, said the increase in bill supply, rising rate expectations and diminishing money market fund inflows have pushed their yields higher. "We look for heavy reliance on bills supply to continue," Goldberg said.
中长期来看，富国银行预计国库券在国债市场中的份额将达到24%，高于疫情前水平，但接近二战后平均水平的23%。财政部借款咨询委员会（TBAC）建议，国库券份额应保持在15%至20%之间。预期中的国库券发行增加发生在借款需求大体稳定的背景下。
Over the medium term, Wells Fargo expects the T-bill share of the Treasury market to hit 24%, higher than the pre-pandemic level but near the post-World War Two average of 23%. The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) has recommended that the T-bill share should be maintained at a level between 15% and 20%. The expected rise in bill issuance comes against a backdrop of largely stable borrowing needs.
自上次再融资公告在八月发布以来，情况几乎没有变化，2026财年的赤字为1.992万亿美元。对于2027年，摩根大通预计赤字将保持不变，仍为1.960万亿美元，鉴于关于进一步和解方案或政府融资的信息有限。
Since the last refunding announcement in August, little has changed, with the deficit coming in at $1.992 trillion in fiscal year 2026. For 2027, J.P. Morgan expects the deficit to remain unchanged at $1.960 trillion, given limited information about further reconciliation packages or government financing.
摩根大通全球利率策略主管杰伊·巴里表示，该行的预测不太可能受到周二美国中期选举的影响，国会控制权正处于争夺之中。
Jay Barry, J.P. Morgan head of global rates strategy, said the bank's forecast is not likely to be affected by the US midterm elections on Tuesday, with control of Congress at stake.
“绝大多数道路似乎都通向某种形式的分裂政府，以及不利于通过广泛财政方案的环境，尽管我们认为，如果共和党保持对两院的控制，支出方面存在一些上行风险，”巴里在一份研究报告中表示。
"Most roads appear to lead to some form of divided government and a less conducive environment for passing broad fiscal packages, though we see some upside risk to spending if Republicans retain control of both chambers," Barry said in a research report.