
当第120届国会于2027年1月召开时,大企业可能会发现自己处于众矢之的。仅次于政府官员、特朗普家族本身和政治操盘手,企业界美国可能位居民主党雄心勃勃的监督议程的前列。迹象表明,企业领袖将面临异常艰难的两年,许多左派人士认为他们在总统压力下畏缩不前。这对企业界美国的影响深远。那些与白宫建立亲密关系、为总统倡议提供资金、获得丰厚政府合同、或从宽松执法中获益的公司,很快可能会在激烈的国会听证会上坐上“热板凳”。
When the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027, Big Business could find itself in the crosshairs. Second only to administration officials, the Trump family itself and political operatives, corporate America may sit near the top of Democrats' ambitious oversight agenda. Signs point to an exceptionally tough two years for business leaders, whom many on the left believe cowered under pressure from the president. And the implications for corporate America are consequential. Companies that cultivated cozy White House relationships, financed presidential initiatives, secured lucrative government contracts, or benefited from lax enforcement could soon find themselves in the hot seat during contentious congressional hearings.
或许最尖锐的问题将不在于公司做了什么,而在于为什么。公开承诺是否被悄悄拿来换取准入?董事会是否用原则换取了利润?高管们知道什么,何时知道的?认为审查将止步于政治捐赠者和硅谷的首席执行官们,忽略了更大的图景。银行业、保险业、媒体、医疗保健、交通运输、能源、制造业和国际贸易,都是国会调查的合理目标。
Perhaps the sharpest questions will concern not what companies did, but why. Were public commitments quietly traded for access? Did boardrooms trade principle for profit? What did executives know, and when? CEOs who think scrutiny will stop at political donors and Silicon Valley are missing a bigger picture. Banking, insurance, media, health care, transportation, energy, manufacturing and international trade are all fair targets for congressional investigations.
当民主党寻求惩罚他们认定为从政治中牟利的亿万富翁和高调商业领袖时,没有任何行业应该觉得能免受一个被排除在权力之外的政党积压已久的愤怒。高管们也不应误将分裂政府等同于国会无力。民主党控制的众议院若无参议院和总统配合,无法推行其全部立法议程,但它可以要求提交文件、传唤证人,并在其管辖范围内开展调查。
As Dems seek to punish billionaires and high-profile business leaders for what they consider political profiteering, no industry should feel immune from the pent-up scorn of a party that has been shut out of power. Nor should executives mistake divided government for congressional impotence. A Democratic House cannot enact its entire legislative agenda without the Senate and president, but it can demand documents, summon witnesses and conduct investigations within its jurisdiction.
传票、文件要求和其他调查工具,带来的麻烦不亚于——甚至超过——不利的立法或监管。立法可能死在白宫门口,但调查可以持续数月,有时甚至数年。
Subpoenas, document demands and other investigative tools can be just as troublesome — if not more — as adverse legislation or regulation. While legislation may die at the doorstep of the White House, an investigation can live on for months, sometimes years.
如果民主党同时控制参议院,赌注将进一步升高。两院的委员会可能会从不同角度调查同一家公司,同时还会推进反垄断、金融、数据隐私、劳工和贸易方面的立法。民主党双重控制国会将意味着一个激进且雄心勃勃的立法议程,旨在弥补失去的阵地。试想一位首席执行官在宣誓作证时,被要求为一封关于政府合同、并购审查或与高级政府官员私下谈话的内部邮件做出解释。
Should Democrats also capture the Senate, the stakes rise. Committees in both chambers could investigate the same company from different angles, while also advancing legislation on antitrust, finance, data privacy, labor and trade. Dual Democratic control would mean an aggressive and ambitious legislative agenda designed to make up for lost ground. Imagine a CEO, under oath, being asked to justify an internal email about a government contract, a merger review or a private conversation with a high-ranking administration official.
经过剪辑以达到最大媒体效果、在24小时循环播放并作为突发新闻呈现,这一场景预示着一家公司最可怕的噩梦。媒体对政治戏剧的胃口,无论真假,都是无底洞,而首席执行官在风口浪尖上挣扎,极大地提升了收视率。K街的律师、游说者和顾问已经看到了商业机会。对他们而言,国会的清算是一个增长市场:传票回复、文件审查、模拟听证、证人准备、与委员会工作人员谈判、危机公关,以及监督往往引发的后续诉讼。
Edited for maximum media effect, broadcast on a 24-hour loop and presented as breaking news, this scenario portends a company’s biggest nightmare. The media’s appetite for political drama, real or manufactured, is bottomless, and a CEO twisting in the wind makes for great ratings. K Street lawyers, lobbyists and consultants already see the commercial possibilities. For them, a congressional reckoning is a growth market: subpoena responses, document reviews, mock hearings, witness prep, negotiations with committee staff, crisis communications and the follow-on litigation that oversight tends to spawn.
与此同时,他们的企业客户应为一场现代版的宗教审判做好准备,审视他们过去两年的商业行为和优先事项——并准备好为此支付高昂代价。然而,听证会只是开始。公开的审判在市场上还有其他同样具有破坏性的后果。国会的审查可能会动摇投资者信心,壮大行动主义股东声势,引发股东诉讼,刺激州级执法行动,并激起消费者抵制,即使指控最终被证明站不住脚。
Their corporate clients, meanwhile, should prepare for a modern-day inquisition into their business practices and priorities over the last two years — and be prepared to pay handsomely for it. Hearings, however, are only the beginning. Public spectacle has other, equally damaging, consequences in the market. Congressional scrutiny can rattle investors, embolden activists, invite shareholder lawsuits, stimulate state enforcement and provoke consumer backlash, even when accusations prove unfounded.
对股价、市场和企业声誉的直接打击实时显现,恢复可能需要数月时间。美国的银行业对此深有体会。去银行化、消费者费用、信贷可得性、数字资产,以及它们与联邦监管机构的关系,已经给它们带来了棘手的问题。
The direct hit on stock prices, the market and corporate reputation is registered in real time, and could takes months to recover. America’s banks should know. Debanking, consumer fees, credit availability, digital assets and their relationships with federal regulators already present thorny problems for them.
民主党人可能将聚焦于贷款公平性、账户关闭、高管薪酬以及据称来自华盛顿的优待等问题。保险公司同样难逃审视。保费上涨、理赔争议、保障限制、承保做法和高管薪酬几乎自动构成了听证会的议程。媒体和娱乐行业也可能面临类似审查,不容忽视。广播所有权、大型并购、广告做法、传输费纠纷、流媒体服务,以及与政府和联邦通信委员会的顺从关系,都招致审视。
Democrats could spotlight lending fairness, account closures, executive pay and alleged preferential treatment from Washington. Insurance companies are no less vulnerable. Rising premiums, disputed claims, coverage limitations, underwriting practices and executive compensation practically write their own hearing agendas. Not to be overlooked, media and entertainment industries could face similar examination. Broadcast ownership, mega mergers, advertising practices, carriage disputes, streaming services and a deferential relationship with the administration and the Federal Communications Commission invite scrutiny.
围绕媒体审查、第一修正案以及限制新闻界接触政府的问题也是如此。但大型科技公司可能是最显眼的靶子。那些全盘接受政府政策的高管,可能会被问及政府合同、监管优惠、政治捐款,以及他们对联邦政策的影响力。关于隐私、竞争、消费者保护和人工智能的合理问题,理应从大型科技公司领袖那里得到合理的回答。
So do questions surrounding media censorship, the First Amendment and restrictions on press access to government. But Big Tech may be the most conspicuous target. Executives who embraced the administration’s policies lock, stock and barrel may be asked about government contracts, regulatory favors, political contributions, and their influence over federal policy. Legitimate questions about privacy, competition, consumer protection and artificial intelligence deserve legitimate answers from Big Tech leaders.
还有数据中心。很少有问题能像全国各地巨大的 AI 设施那样,凝聚起如此意想不到的盟友。它们承诺带来就业和投资,同时引发了对电价、用水、土地、税收激励和社区经济发展的担忧。虽然民主党和共和党议员都寻求限制、暂停甚至彻底禁止新建项目,但对国会民主党人而言,数据中心可能是他们需要摘取的“触手可及的果实”,以便与政治独立人士建立更紧密的联系。
And then there are data centers. Few issues have brought together such unlikely allies as the enormous AI facilities throughout the country. They have promised jobs and investment while prompting concerns about electricity rates, water use, land, tax incentives and community economic development. While both Democratic and Republican members have sought restrictions, moratoria and outright bans on new development, for congressional Democrats, data centers may be the low-hanging fruit they need to connect even more intimately with political independents.
数据中心辩论之外,还在于美国电网完整性、个人隐私、岗位流失以及与中国的全球竞争等更大的问题。其他行业也应保持警惕。交通、能源、贸易和医疗保健也都是民主党审查的合法目标。
Beyond the data center debate lie even larger questions about the integrity of America’s electric grid, personal privacy, job displacement, and global competition with China. Other industries should be on alert. Transportation, energy, trade, and health care are also fair game for Democratic review.
航空公司可能面临关于安全和服务的重新质疑。零售商可能被迫就关税、海外采购和供应链作出回应。能源、石油和天然气行业将不得不就许可、定价、环境和利润回答问题。而医疗保健行业则面临关于成本上升和保障范围缩减的长期质询。美国企业界不仅应预期委员会领导层的更替,更应预期视角的转变。涉及大企业、大科技和大银行的议题关乎经济重大影响、公众高度关注,且蕴含丰富的政治机遇,不可能被搁置不管。
Airlines may face renewed questions about safety and service. Retailers could be pressed about tariffs, overseas sourcing and supply chains. Energy, oil and gas industries stand to answer questions on permits, pricing, the environment and profits. And the health care industry faces perennial questions about rising costs and shrinking coverage. Corporate America should expect more than a change in committee leadership — it should expect a change in perspective. Issues involving Big Business, Big Tech and Big Banks are too consequential to the economy, too visible to the public and too rich in political opportunity to be left alone.
但这对民主党也是一个警示。无论他们控制国会一院还是两院,民主党必须记住,惩罚企业不等于保护公众。他们可以要求企业问责,而不必向商界宣战。美国公司雇佣数百万员工、投资数十亿美元,并在全球经济中与决心夺取并控制我方市场的外国竞争对手角逐。国会应当铭记,政治表演要付出经济代价,而这代价很少仅由首席执行官承担。
But there is a cautionary tale for Democrats as well. Whether they control one house of Congress or two, Democrats must remember that punishing business is not the same as protecting the public. They can demand corporate accountability without declaring war on business. American companies employ millions of people, invest billions of dollars and compete in a global economy against foreign rivals determined to capture and control our markets. Congress should be mindful that political spectacle carries an economic price, and that price is rarely paid by CEOs alone.
它落在员工、股东、消费者和社区身上。中国、俄罗斯和外国竞争对手不会在华盛顿算计政治账目时暂停其努力和野心。他们将利用每一次分心、每一笔延迟投资和每一个自伤之举。民主党应当明白,国会需要的是警惕,而非报复。美国选民希望领导人负责,而非仇视。除此之外,都是对美国公民和美国宪法职责的渎职。
It falls on employees, shareholders, consumers and communities. China, Russia and foreign competitors will not suspend their efforts and ambitions while Washington settles political scores. They will exploit every distraction, every delayed investment and every self-inflicted wound. Democrats should understand that Congress needs vigilance, not vengeance. American voters want accountability, not animosity, from its leaders. Anything else is a dereliction of their duty to American citizens and the United States Constitution.
阿多尼斯·霍夫曼撰写商业、法律和政策文章。他曾在美国众议院和联邦通信委员会担任高级法律职务。
Adonis Hoffman writes on business, law and policy. He served in senior legal roles in the U.S. House of Representatives and at the Federal Communications Commission.