
随着民主党在选举之夜赢得国会控制权,众议院监督委员会首席民主党议员、众议员罗伯特·加西亚发出了警告:“请好律师吧。”美国一些最大的公司已经这么做了。
As Democrats swept control of Congress on election night, Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, had a warning: “Lawyer up.”Some of America’s biggest companies already have.
在花了两年时间讨好唐纳德·特朗普总统后,它们正为加西亚以及将在1月掌握传票权力的其他民主党人做准备,加西亚有望出任该委员会主席。据熟悉情况的律师和国会调查人员透露,一些预计会成为重点调查目标的公司已悄悄与民主党建立了后台联系——这是为了应对民主党酝酿了一年的清算。
After two years spent courting President Donald Trump, they are bracing for Garcia, who is in line to chair the committee, and the other Democrats who will wield subpoena power come January. Some that expect to land near the top of the target lists have quietly opened back channels to the party, according to lawyers and congressional investigators familiar with the matter — a hedge against the reckoning Democrats have spent the year previewing.
每届现代政府都在一定程度上抵制国会监督。但在特朗普的第一个任期里,白宫走得更远,拒绝配合众议院民主党人发出的一系列传票,并宣布完全不配合2019年的弹劾调查。这一次,民主党可能找到了变通办法。国会现在想要的大量信息掌握在私营部门手中,这些公司与这届白宫留下了书面记录。上市公司受到监管、对股东负责,且容易遭遇股价下跌和声誉受损,这使它们面临着特别大的配合压力。
Every modern administration has resisted congressional oversight to some degree. But in Trump’s first term, the White House went further, refusing to comply with a string of House Democrats’ subpoenas and declaring that it would not cooperate with the 2019 impeachment inquiry at all. This time, Democrats may have found a workaround. Much of the information Congress wants now sits in the private sector, with companies that have left a paper trail with this White House. Publicly traded companies are regulated, answerable to shareholders and vulnerable to stock drops and reputational damage, putting them under particular pressure to cooperate.
在华盛顿的白鞋律所内部,处理国会调查的律师们开始接到惊慌失措的电话。“人们对声誉问题感到恐惧,”一位代表客户的律师说,其客户已成为民主党监督的目标,该律师获准匿名发言,以便坦诚谈论客户策略。“归根结底,许多公司不相信会有全面赦免——他们相信只会赦免特朗普喜欢的人。”十多名人士,包括代表调查对象的律师和从事调查工作的国会工作人员,告诉《MS NOW》,他们预计绝大多数调查目标都会在一定程度上配合民主党调查人员。
Inside Washington’s white-shoe firms, lawyers who handle congressional investigations have started fielding panicked calls. “People are terrified of the reputational issues,” said a lawyer who represents clients that have already been the target of Democratic oversight and was granted anonymity to speak candidly about client strategy. “At the end of the day, a lot of corporations don’t believe there will be a blanket pardon — they believe there’s going to be a pardon for people that Trump loves.”More than a dozen people, including lawyers who represent subjects of investigations and congressional staff who work on investigations, told MS NOW they expect the vast majority of those targets to cooperate with Democratic investigators to some degree.
他们描述了高管们的担忧:与其说担心单个负面标题,不如说担心下届总统大选后可能发生的事情——一个司法部,可能会根据特朗普的司法部预计将予以忽视的移交建议采取行动。
They described executives who are less worried about a single bad headline than about what could come after the next presidential election: a Justice Department that could act on the referrals Trump’s Justice Department is expected to ignore.
“世界很长,权力会更迭,”一位代表客户处理国会调查的律师说。“如果是一家公司,而且是个你以前听过名字的公司,它大概率希望在特朗普政府结束后,你还能听到它的名字。”即使撇开法律风险不谈,律师们说,接受调查的公司依然有很多担忧。首当其冲的是声誉受损。一家公司可能成为民主党议员议院发言和竞选广告的常客,或成为2028年总统候选人渴望证明自己对企业影响力强硬态度的试金石。
“The world is long, power shifts,” said a lawyer who represents clients in congressional investigations. “If it’s a company and it’s a name that you’ve heard of before, it probably wants to be a company that you’ve heard of after the Trump administration is over.”Even short of legal jeopardy, lawyers say, companies under investigation have plenty to worry about. First is reputational harm. A company could become a fixture of Democratic floor speeches and campaign ads, or a litmus test for 2028 candidates eager to prove they are tough on corporate influence.
还有财政大权。多位律师表示,客户担心民主党人可能利用拨款法案惩罚与特朗普有关联的公司。其中一个例子是加入条款,禁止接受总统家庭成员投资的公司竞标联邦合同。只要特朗普在白宫,此类条款不大可能成为法律。但即使只是委员会争辩或全院辩论,也可能损害一家公司,而且如果民主党同时控制国会和白宫,这种威胁可能延续到下一届政府。
Then there is the power of the purse. Several lawyers said clients fear Democrats could use spending bills to punish companies tied to Trump. One example would be language barring firms that have taken investment from a member of the president’s family from winning federal contracts. Such provisions would be unlikely to become law with Trump in the White House. But even a committee fight or a floor debate could hurt a company, and the threat could follow it into the next administration if Democrats control both Congress and the White House.
但给民主党留出可乘之机的第三方策略,也是白宫开始构建防线的地方。8月,司法部法律顾问办公室发布意见,将行政特权延伸至与私人当事人的部分通信。
But the third-party strategy that gives Democrats their opening is also where the White House has begun building its defense. In August, the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel issued an opinion extending executive privilege to some communications with private parties.
“就行政部门而言,该意见提供了一个潜在的新框架,但尚未经过检验,可用于抵制披露涉及外部当事人的通信,”Covington & Burling律师事务所的律师在一篇分析该意见的博客文章中写道。“对于经常与白宫或高级政府官员打交道的任何人来说,在回应日益常见的各类国会针对私人当事人的调查询问时,该意见将增加更多需要应对的复杂性。”
“For the executive branch, the opinion provides a potential new, but untested, framework for resisting disclosure of communications involving outside parties,” lawyers at the firm Covington & Burling wrote in a blog post analyzing the opinion. “And for anyone who regularly interacts with the White House or senior administration officials, the opinion will add further complexity to navigate when responding to an increasingly common variety of congressional inquiries directed to private parties.”
白宫将以何种力度援引特权以阻挠文件请求,目前尚不得而知。“正如总统所说,他愿意与任何人合作,继续为勤劳的美国人带来胜利,”白宫发言人Lauren Bis在一份声明中说。“如果民主党人选择追究虚假调查并推行激进左派政策,他们就是选择与美国人民为敌。”但特权主张的扩大可能会进一步鼓舞一小群潜在目标:特朗普的盟友以及将自身命运与总统绑定的高管。他们可能更愿意无视国会,摆脱让大多数公司保持顺从的压力。
It remains to be seen how aggressively the White House will invoke privilege to block document requests. “As the President has said, he’s willing to work with anyone to continue delivering victories for hardworking Americans,” White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said in a statement. “If Democrats choose to pursue sham investigations and radical left policies, they are choosing to work against the American people.”But the expanded claim of privilege could further embolden a narrow group of potential targets: Trump allies and executives who have tied their fortunes to the president. They may be more willing to defy Congress and shrug off the pressures that keep most companies in line.
Elon Musk已经预演了这种做法。他警告民主党人,如果他们来针对他,他就会反击,一位律师称之为“竖中指策略”。像Musk这样的潜在拒不配合者有理由相信,他们将获得比近期记忆中任何国会调查目标都多的庇护。在周一接受《纽约邮报》采访时,特朗普表示,如果有必要,他准备向Musk和其他人发出预防性赦免。这种赦免可以在任何人被指控犯罪之前授予。
Elon Musk has already previewed that approach. He warned Democrats that he would come after them if they came after him, which one lawyer called “the middle finger strategy.”Potential holdouts like Musk have reason to believe they will have more cover than the targets of any congressional investigation in recent memory. In an interview with the New York Post on Monday, Trump said he was prepared to issue preemptive pardons to Musk and others if he needed to. Such pardons can be granted before anyone is charged with a crime.
对一些国会山资深人士来说,这加起来构成了一套削弱国会监督的剧本。
To some Capitol Hill veterans, that adds up to a playbook for defanging congressional oversight.
“谁能说特朗普不会向所有与他们有过交往的人发布全面赦免?这将使他们免受国会审查,”一位前国会高级调查员说。“民主党已经宣布要调查谁……只要把所有人都赦免了,民主党就完了。他们还可以辩称,[乔] 拜登也曾为1月6日[调查]委员会成员和工作人员以及亨特·拜登这样做过。”然而,赦免无法保护公司的股价。周三,特斯拉和SpaceX股价大幅下跌,投资者在权衡民主党掌控多数席位对马斯克旗下公司意味着什么。
“Who is to say that Trump won’t issue blanket pardons for everyone who has had dealings with them? It will spare them from congressional scrutiny,” said a former senior congressional investigator. “The Democrats have already announced who they’re investigating … Just cover everyone and Democrats are screwed. And they can challenge that [Joe] Biden did it for Jan. 6 [committee] members and staff and Hunter Biden.”A pardon, however, cannot shield a company’s share price. On Wednesday, Tesla and SpaceX shares fell sharply, with investors weighing what Democratic majorities mean for Musk’s companies.
从事国会调查工作的律师还指出,赦免无法触及的一个武器是:法院。赦免可以使某人免受刑事处罚,但无法保护公司或个人免受旨在强制执行传票的民事诉讼,或免受可能随之而来的法院命令。一位客户已被民主党锁定的律师说,采取强硬立场可以拖延进程,但无法阻止进程。
Lawyers who work on congressional investigations also point to a weapon a pardon cannot touch: the courts. A pardon can shield someone from criminal penalties, but it does nothing to protect a company or an individual from a civil suit to enforce a subpoena, or from the court order that could follow. Taking a hard line can slow the process, said a lawyer whose clients Democrats have already targeted, but it cannot stop it.
“采取强硬立场并最终被众议院判定藐视国会的公司,基本上就是在赌2028年大选的结果,”这位律师补充道。
“Companies that take a hard line and end up being held in contempt by the House will basically be gambling on the outcome of the 2028 election,” the lawyer added.
但对民主党监督的最大障碍,可能不是来自白宫或其盟友,而是来自民主党自身。现任和前任国会调查员质疑,该党是否已准备好开展有纪律、协调一致、信息连贯的调查,而不让各委员会为争夺关注度而相互竞争。
But some of the biggest obstacles to Democratic oversight may come not from the White House or its allies but from Democrats themselves. Current and former congressional investigators have questioned whether the party is ready to run disciplined, coordinated investigations with a coherent message, without committees competing for attention.
另一个悬而未决的问题是范围:民主党是否会试图同时调查太多事情,而不是集中资源。一位曾在国会调查中为高管和公司提供咨询的律师说,调查铺得太开,可能导致无法有效调查任何事情。
The other question looming is scope: whether Democrats will try to investigate too many things at once, instead of concentrating their resources. Spreading investigations too thin risks leaving them unable to investigate anything effectively, said a lawyer who has counseled executives and companies in investigations before congress.
但缩小名单本身也存在风险。“这确实会让公司抱有希望,觉得也许可以置身事外,不必上那份简短名单,”这位律师说。
But narrowing the list carries its own risks, too. “It does sort of give companies the hope that maybe they can sort of hang out on the sidelines and not be on that short list,” the lawyer said.