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佩尔托拉在阿拉斯加州参议院竞选中略微领先Peltola takes slight lead in Alaska Senate race

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民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉在阿拉斯加参议院竞选中以约500票的微弱优势领先,决策台总部(DDHQ)的结果显示,这使得参议院可能出现第八个席位易手的局面。截至周三上午近11点,佩尔托拉以48.2%对47.9%领先参议员丹·沙利文(共和党),已统计预期选票的70%。阿拉斯加没有县,而是按州众议院选区划分选票。DDHQ显示,佩尔托拉在40个州众议院选区中有26个超过了她的“基准线”——即她为在全州范围内获胜而需要达到的预估结果。

Democrat Mary Peltola has taken a slight lead in Alaska’s Senate race by about 500 votes, results from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) show, putting a possible eighth flip in the Senate in reach. As of almost 11 a.m. Wednesday, Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with 48.2 percent to his 47.9 percent with 70 percent of the expected vote counted. Alaska does not have counties, instead separating its votes by state house district. DDHQ shows that Peltola is exceeding her “benchmarks” — the estimated result she would need to be on track to win statewide — in 26 out of 40 state house districts.

DDHQ显示,沙利文在另外14个选区超过了他的基准线。佩尔托拉目前在多数州众议院选区领先,共24个。剩余选票还表明,这位前众议员可能有更多空间扩大领先优势——她领先的选区平均已报告预期选票的68.6%,而沙利文领先的选区平均已报告预期选票的73.2%。尽管如此,如果没有候选人获得50%以上的选票,阿拉斯加将启用其排序复选制(RCV)进行即时决选。

Sullivan is exceeding his marks in the other 14, DDHQ shows. Peltola now leads in a majority of state house districts, at 24. The outstanding vote also suggests that the former congresswoman may have more room to grow her lead — districts where she is ahead are averaging 68.6 percent of the expected vote reported, while districts where Sullivan is ahead are averaging 73.2 percent of the expected vote reported. Still, if neither candidate reaches 50 percent, Alaska will proceed with an instant runoff using its ranked choice voting (RCV) system.

如果选民对所有候选人进行了排序,RCV将统计选民的第二、第三和第四选择票,并将其加到剩余候选人的得票率中,直到某位候选人获得多数票。但这一过程要等到阿拉斯加所有选票统计和处理完毕后才能进行。考虑到该州地域辽阔且多为农村地区,选票在选举后有15天时间送达。今年阿拉斯加的选票上有一项废除RCV的提案,根据DDHQ的数据,该提案以近4个百分点的差距落后。

RCV will tally up voters’ second, third and fourth place votes, if they ranked all candidates, and add to the remaining candidates’ vote shares until one candidate has the majority. But that process cannot happen until all voters are counted and processed in Alaska. Given the rural and expansive nature of the state, ballots have 15 days after the election to arrive. A proposition to repeal RCV was on this year’s ballot in Alaska, and it is losing by a nearly 4-point margin, according to DDHQ.

据非党派选举新闻网站Votebeat报道,阿拉斯加要到11月10日才会公布更多选票,届时大部分剩余的提前投票和邮寄选票将被统计。最终选票将于11月18日计入统计,届时州政府将在必要时进行RCV计票。

Alaska will not report more votes until Nov. 10, when most remaining early and mail ballots will be counted, according to nonpartisan election news site Votebeat. The final votes will be included in the count on Nov. 18, when the state will run RCV if necessary.

在阿拉斯加获胜一度被认为是民主党夺回参议院控制权的必要条件。如今,那只是多赢得一个席位而已。根据DDHQ的预测,民主党已经赢得了七个参议院席位,阿拉斯加和密西西比州的结果仍未出炉。这些胜利是民主党在全国范围内大获全胜的一部分,他们以健康的优势重新夺回了国会控制权。

A win for Democrats in Alaska was once thought to be a necessity for the party to win back control of the Senate. Now, it would just be one more seat. Democrats already picked up seven Senate seats, DDHQ projections show, with Alaska and Mississippi still outstanding. The gains were part of a big night for Democrats nationally in which they reclaimed control of Congress with healthy margins.

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