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纽约时报

阿拉斯加和密西西比州参议院竞选:关于计票和结果公布时间的已知情况Alaska and Mississippi Senate Races: What We Know About Vote Counts and Result Timing

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已知与未知:阿拉斯加和密西西比州参议院选票统计情况民主党在两州均保持微弱领先,胜者可能要过很久才能揭晓。

What We Know (and Don’t Know) in the Alaska and Mississippi Senate Vote Counts Democrats are clinging to small leads in both states, and it may take quite a while until the winners are known.

美国参议院控制权已尘埃落定,35场参议院竞选中有33场在投票结束后数小时内即宣布了结果。然而,在阿拉斯加和密西西比州,参议院选战均未宣布胜者,即使未来几天还会陆续出炉一些额外的得票数,这两场竞选的最终结果可能还要过相当长一段时间才能揭晓。

Control of the U.S. Senate has already been determined, with 33 of the 35 contests being called within hours of polls closing. In Alaska and Mississippi, however, no race calls have been made for the Senate and it could be quite some time until either contest is decided, even as some additional vote totals trickle out in the coming days.

在这两个州,民主党提名人均以微弱优势领先,但未宣布胜者的原因截然不同。阿拉斯加参议院选战已知情况阿拉斯加的参议院选战可能需要数天甚至数周才能宣布结果。截至周三下午,民主党提名人玛丽·佩尔托拉领先不足1000票,但预计近四分之一的选票仍未统计。

In both cases, the Democratic nominee is clinging to a slim lead, but the reasons for the lack of a call are far different. What We Know in the Alaska Senate Race Alaska’s Senate race could take days or weeks to be called. Mary Peltola, the Democratic nominee, had a lead of fewer than 1,000 votes as of Wednesday afternoon, but nearly a quarter of the expected votes remain uncounted.

剩余选票主要为邮寄选票。部分选票是在接近选举日时投出,另一些则在选举日或之前盖上邮戳,将在选举日后几天内送达。还有一小部分提前现场投票的选票也尚未统计。

The bulk of the remaining vote is in the form of mail-in ballots. Some were cast close to Election Day, while others were postmarked by Election Day and will be received in the days after. A smaller chunk of early in-person ballots are also outstanding.

统计所有选票(包括临时选票)的截止日期是11月18日。如果佩尔托拉女士和共和党现任参议员丹尼尔·S·沙利文均未在首轮获得超过50%的得票率以直接获胜,排序选择制计票也将于当天开始。

The deadline to tabulate all ballots, including provisional ballots, is Nov. 18. That is also the date that ranked-choice tabulation will begin, should neither Ms. Peltola nor Senator Daniel S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, cross the 50 percent threshold needed to win the election in the first round.

虽然晚到的邮寄选票通常倾向民主党,但多种因素可能削弱佩尔托拉女士的潜在优势,包括最终将收到多少选票,以及有多少选票来自未在第一志愿之外再排名其他候选人的选民。此外,选票上还有另外两名候选人杰拉尔德·L·海克斯和丹尼尔·J·沙利文二世,他们的存在也可能使局势更加扑朔迷离。

While the late mail vote typically leans toward Democrats, multiple factors could undercut Ms. Peltola’s possible advantage, including how many ballots will be received and how many are from voters who did not rank additional candidates beyond their first choice. There is also the potentially confounding presence of the other two candidates on the ballot, Gerald L. Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

《纽约时报》对从每张选票中提取的可用排序选择数据进行分析显示,将希克斯或小丹尼尔·J·沙利文列为首选的选民中,超过三分之一没有对其他候选人进行排序。这意味着这些选票在后续的排序选择计票轮次中,将不会计入佩洛塔女士或沙利文参议员的得票数。

A New York Times analysis of the available ranked-choice data pulled from each voter’s ballot shows that more than a third of voters who ranked Mr. Heikes or Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. as their first choice did not rank another candidate. That means these ballots would not count toward either Ms. Peltola or Senator Sullivan in subsequent rounds of the ranked-choice tabulation.

关于密西西比州参议院竞选的已知情况 截至周三晚间,密西西比州民主党提名人斯科特·科洛姆领先共和党现任参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯约1000票。由于差距极小,美联社可能无法宣布胜选者,直到该州认证胜选结果。

What We Know in the Mississippi Senate Race As of Wednesday evening, Scott Colom, the Democratic nominee in Mississippi, had a lead of roughly 1,000 votes over Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, the Republican incumbent. Because the margin is so tight, The Associated Press may not be able to make a race call until the state certifies a winner.

密西西比州属于特例,该州没有自动重新计票的机制,也没有候选人对选举提出争议的途径,因此需要法院命令才能启动重新计票。

Mississippi is somewhat of an outlier in that it does not have a mechanism for automatic recounts, and has no method for a candidate to contest the election, so a court order would be required to initiate a recount.

该竞选的几乎所有选票都已计完,但仍有少量临时选票——即发给资格存疑选民的选票——等待计数,一些晚到的邮寄选票也在等待计数。根据密西西比州州务卿的说法,大约有3600张未决邮寄选票可能及时送达并被计数。

Nearly all of the votes have been counted in the race, but a smattering of provisional ballots — which are ballots given to those with questions about their eligibility to vote — are still waiting to be counted, as are some late-arriving mail ballots. According to Mississippi's secretary of state, there are approximately 3,600 outstanding mail ballots that could arrive in time to be counted.

密西西比州最高法院6月裁定,该州必须接受选举日后周二(今年为11月10日)前送达的邮寄选票。该州的临时选票也必须在当天完成计数。临时选票要被接受,选民须向选举官员提供适当身份证明、获取州选民身份证,或提交宗教豁免申请。

Mississippi’s Supreme Court ruled in June that the state must accept mail-in ballots that arrive by the Tuesday after Election Day — this year, Nov. 10. And provisional ballots in the state must be tallied by that day as well. For a provisional ballot to be accepted, the voter is required to provide proper identification to elections officials, obtain a state voter ID card, or submit a religious exemption.

该州部分县表示,希望于周三开始公布部分临时选票的计票结果。目前尚不清楚全州还有多少选票未完成计票。让情况更加复杂的是,选票处理和计票——包括对临时选票作出裁定——由各县的五人选举委员会负责,而非由单一选举官员负责。

Some counties in the state have said they hope to begin releasing some results of provisional ballots on Wednesday. It is currently unknown how many ballots remain uncounted statewide. Adding a layer of complexity, ballot processing and counting, which includes ruling on provisional ballots, is conducted by each county’s five-person elections commission rather than a single elections official.

2024年,该州临时选票数量略低于1.5万张,其中70%被接受。2022年,该州约有5700张临时选票,其中75%被接受。埃文·彭对报道有贡献。

In 2024, the state had just under 15,000 provisional ballots, of which 70 percent were accepted. In 2022, the state had about 5,700 provisional ballots, of which 75 percent were accepted. Evan Peng contributed reporting.

卡罗琳·索勒是《纽约时报》研究员,专注于收集和分析民调与选举数据。张克里斯汀是《纽约时报》记者,专攻图表和数据新闻。

Caroline Soler is a Times researcher focused on collecting and analyzing polling and election data. Christine Zhang is a Times reporter specializing in graphics and data journalism.

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