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民主党掌控国会或促使美国数十年来对以色列的支持面临考验Democratic Congress could test decades of US support for Israel

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华盛顿,11月4日——民主党夺取国会控制权,加上共和党内对以色列的不安日益加剧,可能引发数十年来对美国对其最亲近的中东盟友支持的最大规模重新评估。这场部分由对伊朗战争的愤怒所塑造的选举,可能成为这一转变的催化剂。

WASHINGTON, Nov 4 - Democrats’ takeover of Congress and growing Republican unease over Israel could trigger the biggest reassessment of US support for its closest Middle East ally in decades, after an election shaped in part by anger over the Iran war. Democrats won both the Senate and House in Tuesday’s midterms.

民主党在周二的中期选举中赢得了参议院和众议院的控制权。许多获胜候选人是进步派,他们在竞选中主张停止对以色列的军事援助以及美国与以色列针对伊朗的战争。

Many winning candidates were progressives who campaigned against military aid to Israel and the US-Israeli war on Iran. Israel’s campaign in Gaza and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s embrace of President Donald Trump and other Republicans had already strained decades of bipartisan support for Israel.

以色列在加沙的军事行动,以及总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡对总统唐纳德·特朗普和其他共和党人的拥护,此前已经使数十年来对以色列的两党支持紧张起来。

Democratic control could bring greater scrutiny of military aid and West Bank violence, along with hearings and challenges to Trump nominees, although the president’s veto limits the party’s ability to force major policy changes.

民主党控制国会可能会对军事援助和西岸暴力行为带来更严格的审查,并可能举行听证会并挑战特朗普的提名,但总统的否决权限制了该党推动重大政策变革的能力。

One successful progressive was Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate despite Republican attempts to win over Jewish voters who might have been uncomfortable with his faith and his criticism of Israel.

一位成功的进步派候选人是来自密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德,他是首位当选美国参议员的穆斯林,尽管共和党试图争取那些可能对他的信仰及其对以色列的批评感到不安的犹太选民。

There were also signs that Republicans might reexamine their party's traditional support for Israel.

也有迹象表明,共和党可能会重新审视其党内对以色列的传统支持。

Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday blamed the election rout on the war against Iran and identified Israel as an issue for Republicans.

副总统JD·万斯周三将选举惨败归咎于对伊朗的战争,并将以色列列为共和党需要关注的问题。他在社交媒体帖子中表示,一位民调人士指出了四项可让不满的特朗普选民回归的行动:“1)结束战争 2)关注生活成本/通货膨胀 3)实行美国优先 4)改变我们与以色列的关系。”特朗普周二在福克斯新闻的采访中宣布,他已与内塔尼亚胡达成协议,华盛顿将停止每年向以色列提供的安全援助。

He said in a social media post that one pollster identified four actions that would bring disgruntled Trump voters back: "1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel." Trump announced in a Fox News interview on Tuesday that he had made a deal with Netanyahu that Washington would end annual security assistance to Israel. However, it was not immediately clear that he had the legal authority to stop the billions of dollars in military assistance Washington sends Israel each year.

然而,他能否依法停止华盛顿每年向以色列提供的数十亿美元军事援助,目前尚不清楚。

Policy toward Israel has emerged as a generational divide in US politics.

对以色列的政策已成为美国政治中的代际分歧。民意调查显示,年轻选民(包括一些共和党人)认为,美国对以色列的支持过度,而对巴勒斯坦领土居民的支持不足。

Opinion polls show younger voters, including some Republicans, feel the country has been too supportive of Israel and insufficiently supportive of residents of the Palestinian territories. SENTIMENT SHIFTING Congressional sentiment had already been shifting.

情绪转变 国会情绪此前已在转变。去年9月,47名参议院民主党党团成员中有46人投票支持一项决议,要求特朗普政府向国会报告以色列定居者在西岸对巴勒斯坦人实施暴力行为日益增加的情况。

In September, 46 of the 47 members of the Senate Democratic caucus voted for a resolution to force Trump's administration to report to Congress on increasing violence against Palestinians by Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Republicans blocked the measure, but the near-unanimous Democratic vote was a sharp departure from decades of reliable bipartisan backing for Israel.

共和党人阻止了该提案,但民主党近乎一致的投票,是几十年来对以色列可靠两党支持的一次显著背离。民主党人可能会再次关注西岸暴力问题。

Democrats will likely focus again on West Bank violence. "We need to make sure that we apply our laws and international law and our policies uniformly across the board when it comes to the actions of countries.

“我们需要确保,在国家行为方面,我们的法律、国际法和政策得到统一适用,不应有以色列例外,”马里兰州民主党参议员克里斯·范·霍伦说,他一直领导着对以色列援助施加人权条件的努力。

There should not be an Israel exception," said Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, who has led attempts to put human rights conditions on Israel aid.

然而,民主党的权力仍然有限。特朗普承诺要当“否决总统”,如果总统拒绝签署他们的法案,他们不太可能凑齐推翻其否决所需的三分之二多数票。

Democrats’ power remains limited, however. Trump promised to be “Mr. Veto,” and they are unlikely to muster the two-thirds majorities needed to override his vetoes if the president refuses to sign their bills.

不过,可能有足够的反对将美国纳税人的钱送往国外的情绪,以及对伊朗战争的愤怒,足以让共和党“美国优先”派别也进行反击。

Still, there might be enough resistance to sending US tax dollars abroad, and anger over the Iran war, for the "America First" wing of the Republican Party to also push back.

选举结果可能会出现“左右两翼的奇怪同盟,共同谴责以色列”,普赖斯·弗洛伊德说,他是一名前美国官员,也是伦敦战略传播公司阿盖尔战略的高级顾问。

The election result could see "weird bedfellows of left and right come together in condemnation of Israel," said Price Floyd, a former US official and senior adviser with Argyll Strategy, a London-based strategic communications firm.

制造声响 多数席位也意味着民主党可以传唤政府官员出席公开听证会,这在特朗普的共和党人执政期间属于罕见情况。

MAKING NOISE Majorities also mean Democrats can summon administration officials to public hearings, a rarity under Trump's Republicans.

威廉·韦斯勒(William Wechsler)说:“国会能做的是制造……很多噪音。他们可以威胁要搁置提名。他们可以就各种援助协议制造大量问题,迫使总统做出豁免(如果他解除制裁的话)。”韦斯勒是大西洋理事会中东项目高级主任。

"What Congress can do is they can make ... a lot of noise. They can threaten to hold up nominees.

民意调查显示,对伊朗战争的担忧是选举的主要议题。许多美国人将物价上涨——尤其是汽油价格上涨——归咎于特朗普二月发起的这场冲突。

They can create lots of questions about various assistance deals and force the president to do waivers (if he lifts sanctions)," said William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council. Opinion polls showed the Iran war was a top election issue.

乔纳森·申泽(Jonathan Schanzer)说,以色列领导层的变化可能会改变两国交往的“氛围”。申泽是倡导美以强大联盟的“民主防卫基金会”智库的执行主任。

Many Americans blamed higher prices – especially for gasoline – on the conflict Trump began in February. Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, which advocates for a strong US-Israel alliance, said Israel's changing leadership could change the "mood music" of dealings between the two countries.

内塔尼亚胡在10月27日的以色列选举中失去了执政多数,但没有给反对派留下明确的赶下台路径。组建新政府的谈判预计将持续较长时间。

Netanyahu lost his governing majority in an October 27 Israeli election, but denied opponents a clear path to unseat him. Negotiations to form a new government are expected to be protracted.

申泽说,一个新的以色列政府,特别是一个与共和党关系不那么密切的政府,可能会以更合作的方式与民主党打交道。

A new Israeli government, particularly one less closely tied to Republicans, could engage in a more cooperative way with Democrats, Schanzer said.

申泽说:“在美国,直到国会议员在一月就职之前,情况都不会改变,到那时,可能会有一个新的以色列政府,这也会对此产生影响。”

"Nothing is going to change in the United States until January when Congress takes their seats and by then, there may be a new Israeli government that would also have an impact on this," Schanzer said.

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