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民主党全国委员会视有色人种选民为中期选举大胜的“驱动力”DNC Sees Voters of Color as ‘Driving Force’ Behind Midterm Rout

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周二的“蓝色浪潮”由有色人种选民推动。这是两党战略家在研读选举结果时得出的一个关键结论。周三,《时代》独家获得的一份备忘录即将在民主党全国委员会的高层中传阅,民主党的两位资深战略家在文中指出,如果没有这一关键的选民重组,这场大胜是不可能实现的,而这一变化对2028年的总统竞选格局影响深远。

Tuesday’s Blue Wave was powered by voters of color. That’s a key takeaway strategists in both parties are clocking as they pore through the results. In a memo obtained exclusively by TIME on Wednesday and soon to circulate among the Democratic National Committee’s bigwigs, two of the Democratic Party’s veteran strategists argue that the blowout would not have been possible without that crucial realignment, one that has enormous consequences for 2028’s presidential field.

“与2024年总统大选相比,西班牙裔和黑人选民不仅以巨大比例投票,而且在支持率上也大幅回流民主党,”汤姆·博尼耶和西蒙·罗森伯格在周三的备忘录中写道。

“Hispanic and Black voters not only turned out at a massive rate, but also swung back towards Democrats in terms of support levels, relative to the 2024 presidential election,” Tom Bonier and Simon Rosenberg wrote in Wednesday’s memo.

必须明确的是,每一个主要人口群体在这次中期选举中都向左转移,这对唐纳德·特朗普总统及其品牌的共和党构成了惊人的谴责。“众议院最终的普选票差距还需数周才能确定,但目前民主党有望获得自1974年以来中期选举中最大的普选票优势,”博尼耶和罗森伯格写道。“有色人种选民是这场蓝色海啸背后的驱动力量。”

To be clear, every major demographic group shifted left in these midterms, offering a stunning rebuke of President Donald Trump and his brand of the Republican Party. “The final popular vote margin for the House will take weeks to determine, but at this point Democrats are on track to have the largest popular vote margin in a midterm election since 1974,” Bonier and Rosenberg write. “Voters of color were the driving force behind the blue tsunami.”

但在许多情况下,有色人种选民的转向起到了决定性作用。据《纽约时报》分析,与2024年总统大选水平相比,西班牙裔选民向左转移了28个百分点。黑人选民转移了9个百分点。亚裔美国选民呢?他们转移了17个百分点。

But the shift in voters of color proved pivotal in many cases. Hispanic voters had a 28-point move leftward from 2024’s presidential levels, according to a New York Times analysis. Black voters moved nine points. Asian American voters? They moved 17 points.

用一位民主党战略家周三的话说,该党的基本盘“回归”了。“回归常态”是另一位战略家的定论。

The party’s base “came home,” in the words of one Democratic strategist on Wednesday. “Back to normal” was the verdict of another.

西班牙裔选民表现出了特别高的投票热情。博尼耶-罗森伯格对早期投票数据的分析显示,西班牙裔投票率轻松超过了2022年中期选举,甚至可能在选举日前超越2024年总统大选的水平。

Hispanic voters proved particularly enthusiastic to cast their ballots. A Bonier-Rosenberg analysis of early-vote data showed Hispanic turnout easily surpassing 2022’s midterms, and potentially topping even the 2024 presidential numbers, before Election Day.

这一转变将对正在考虑竞选总统的候选人产生重大影响,同时也对该党去年重新安排初选日程的决定产生重大影响。民主党全国委员会(DNC)决定将南卡罗来纳州的总统初选提升为2028年的首场初选,这一决定在党内曾引发一些质疑。现在这一决定显得更具前瞻性,因为它进一步赋予了民主党真正脊梁力量。根据出口民调,周二南卡罗来纳州26%的选民是有色人种选民。这与爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州——总统竞选的传统起跑线——形成鲜明对比,根据出口民调,这两个州的有色人种选民不足10%。

This shift will have big implications for the candidates mulling presidential runs, but also for the party’s decision last year to rearrange its primary calendar. The DNC’s choice to elevate South Carolina’s presidential primary to lead-off position for 2028 drew some second-guessing from within the party. That decision now looks even more prescient, as it further empowers the true spine of the Democratic Party. A full 26% of South Carolina voters on Tuesday were voters of color, according to exit polls. That’s a far cry from Iowa and New Hampshire—the traditional starting pistols in the presidential race, where less than 10% were voters of color, per exit polls.

本周期民主党花费大量精力争取2024年流失的有色人种选民,主张特朗普的经济政策让他们被抛在身后。博尼耶和罗森伯格在备忘录中指出,周二的结果似乎证明了这一努力的明智之处,并以得克萨斯州韦伯县为典型例证。将特朗普2024年的得票数与当选参议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科的胜利进行比较,该县西班牙裔选民的支持率整整向共和党方向反向摆动了50个百分点。

Democrats spent much of this cycle courting voters of color they had lost in 2024 by arguing that Trump’s economy had left them behind. Tuesday’s results appeared to prove the wisdom of that effort, Bonier and Rosenberg argue in their memo, pointing to Texas’ Webb County as a prime example. Comparing Trump’s 2024 tally with Sen.-elect James Talarico’s win, the Hispanic vote there swung a full 50 points away from Republicans.

“明确地说,仅靠投票率无法产生50个百分点的摆动。事实上,这一结果的一个巨大组成部分显然是特朗普选民跨党派支持民主党候选人,”这两位民主党策略师在致党内人士的备忘录中写道。

“To be clear, 50-point swings don’t happen on turnout alone. In fact, a huge component of this result was clearly due to Trump voters crossing over to support Democrats in this election,” the Democratic strategists wrote to other insiders.

“在这次选举中,有色人种选民采取了立场,一个捍卫他们未来的立场,”备忘录写道。“民主党现在有机会在共和党失败的地方兑现承诺。”

“Voters of color took a stand in this election, a stand to protect their future,” the memo reads. “Democrats now have the opportunity to deliver where Republicans have failed.”

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