周二的选举跻身前十大“浪潮”选举之列，国会党派控制权发生大幅倒向。
Tuesday's election ranks in the Top 10 "wave" elections with a massive shift in party control in Congress.
2026年大选仍在计票中，目前形势显示这将成为执政党自2018年以来最大的失利。
The 2026 election is still being tallied and is shaping up to be the biggest loss for a party in power since 2018.
据MS NOW统计，民主党有望净增至少41个众议院席位，已翻转至少43个共和党把持的席位。
Democrats are set to gain at least 41 House seats, having flipped at least 43 Republican-held seats, according to a MS NOW tally.
用冲浪术语来说，持续时间长的浪称为“长浪”。投资者关心的关键问题是：周二席卷全国的“蓝色浪潮”是否属于这种长浪，能否把民主党送上2028年大选的胜利彼岸。从统计学角度看，答案是它几乎不会产生影响。
In surfer slang, a wave that lasts a long time is a "runner." A key question for investors is whether the blue wave that washed over the country Tuesday was that kind of wave, and could it ferry Democrats to victory in 2028. Statistically, the answer is it should have little effect.
CNBC分析了1938年以来的选举，考察执政党在白宫丢失席位最多的中期“浪潮”选举，以判断它们是否预示着两年后总统大选的走向。
CNBC analyzed elections since 1938 and looked at the biggest midterm wave elections where the party in the White House lost seats to determine whether they portend anything about the presidential election two years later.
周二的选举是白宫执政党在众议院丢失席位最多的一次，自2018年以来首见，但仅勉强挤进历史前十。按CNBC的分析，以反对党预估净增41个众议院席位计算（临近竞选仍在计票中），本次选举排名第10位。最大失利发生在1938年，当时民主党丢失72个众议院席位，背景是经济再度衰退、罗斯福总统扩充最高法院计划遭反对，以及总统与本党保守派发生冲突。两年后的1940年，罗斯福成功连任。
Tuesday's election was the biggest House seat loss for the incumbent party in the White House since 2018, but it only barely makes the historical Top 10. It ranks 10th in CNBC's analysis using an estimate of 41 House seats gained by the opposition party as close races are still being tallied The largest loss came in 1938 when Democrats lost 72 House seats amid a renewed recession, opposition to court-packing by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the president's battle with conservatives in his own party. Roosevelt went on to win reelection two years later in 1940. Midterm elections 2026 live updates: Economy, inflation and voter concerns 5 midterm election takeaways: Tech billionaires suffer as Democrats drub Republicans Elon Musk’s record election bet backfired.
2026年中期选举实时更新：经济、通胀与选民关切 5条中期选举要点：民主党大胜共和党，科技亿万富翁受损 埃隆·马斯克的创纪录选举赌注适得其反。反弹可能波及一名亿万富翁之外 分析：民主党有一个机会从特朗普那里争取让步。市场将讨厌这一点 在更现代的时期，共和党在2010年赢得众议院控制权，当时是贝拉克·奥巴马第一个总统任期的第二年，民主党失去了64个席位，尽管保留了参议院控制权。
The backlash may reach beyond one billionaire Analysis: The Democrats have one chance to extract concessions from Trump. Markets will hate it In more modern times, Republicans swept to power in the House in 2010 two years into Barack Obama's first presidential term, with Democrats losing 64 seats, though retaining control of the Senate. Obama went on to reelection two years later.
奥巴马两年后连任成功。在前四次浪潮选举中，这些选举都发生在总统最后一个任期之前，现任总统每次都连任成功。
Of the top four wave elections, which all occurred before a president's final term, the incumbent went on to win reelection each time. But for the next five waves, the incumbent party lost, including John F. Kennedy beating Richard Nixon in 1960 after Republicans lost seats under President Dwight Eisenhower in 1958; and Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in 2020 after Republicans lost seats in 2018.
但在接下来的五次浪潮选举中，执政党都失利了，包括1960年约翰·肯尼迪击败理查德·尼克松，此前共和党在1958年德怀特·艾森豪威尔总统任期内失去了席位；以及2020年乔·拜登击败唐纳德·特朗普，此前共和党在2018年失去了席位。
Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Associates, the Democratic pollster for the CNBC All-America Economic Survey said the reason midterm waves may not carry forward is the importance of individual characters in presidential elections.
CNBC全美经济调查的民主党民调机构哈特研究协会合伙人杰伊·坎贝尔表示，中期选举浪潮可能不会延续到总统选举，原因是总统选举中个人候选人的重要性。
"A lot can happen in two years.
“两年内可能发生很多事情。虽然总统选举当然受整体政治环境影响，但也很大程度上取决于每个党的候选人，”坎贝尔说。“如果候选人素质在国会选举中很重要，那么在总统选举中重要一千倍。”距离2028年还有很长一段路要走，这次浪潮，无论它有多么棘手，都可能像把民主党重新送回白宫一样，轻易地统计上消退殆尽。
And while presidential elections are certainly subject to the overall political environment, they are also very much about each party's nominee," Campbell said. "If candidate quality matters in congressional elections, it matters 1,000 times more in presidential ones." It's a long way to 2028 and this wave, gnarly as it may have been, could statistically peter out just as easily as it could wash Democrats back into the White House.