约翰内斯堡，11月5日电——南非执政党非洲人国民大会（ANC）在周四市政选举的早期计票结果中领先，但得票率大幅下降，尽管计票仍处于初步阶段，局势仍可能发生重大变化。
JOHANNESBURG, Nov 5 - South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) led in early results from municipal elections on Thursday but with a sharply reduced share of the vote, although counting was still at a preliminary stage and the picture could change significantly.
选举委员会公布的结果显示，截至格林威治标准时间0424（按：即北京时间1224），约12%的选票已完成计数，非国大获得约32%的选票，以微弱优势领先民主联盟（DA）的31%。
With around 12% of votes counted by 0424 GMT, the ANC had about 32% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the Democratic Alliance (DA) on 31%, results from the election commission showed.
此次结果将有助于塑造2029年大选前的政治版图，并可能影响非国大内部的继任角力，因为总统西里尔·拉马福萨作为党魁的任期将于2027年届满。
The outcome will help shape the political landscape ahead of the 2029 national election and could influence the succession battle within the ANC as President Cyril Ramaphosa nears the end of his term as party leader in 2027.
由于人口稠密的豪登省和夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省——南非一些最大城市所在地——仅有极少数选区报告了结果，市政选举的早期计票可能无法反映最终结果。
The early tally in the municipal elections may not mirror the final results, with only a small proportion of districts reporting in populous Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, home to some of the country's biggest cities.
但南非科学与工业研究委员会（CSIR）给出的预测显示，非国大最终得票率可能与目前持平。
But a projection given by South Africa's Council for Scientific and Industrial Research suggested the ANC could end up in the final tally with the same percentage of votes as it has now.
这家领先的本土研究机构告诉公共广播机构，其基于11.5%投票区已宣布结果的预测显示，非国大最终将获得约32%的选票，民主联盟将获得26%。
The CSIR, a leading local research organisation, told public broadcaster that its projections based on 11.5% of voting districts having declared results showed the ANC would get about 32% in the final tally and the DA 26%.
11月4日的投票普遍预计将导致非国大全国得票率下滑，选民因高犯罪率、腐败丑闻以及水电等基本公共服务失灵而惩罚该党。
The Nov. 4 vote was widely predicted to see the ANC lose ground nationally as voters punished it for high crime rates, corruption scandals and failing basic services such as water and electricity.
非国大在2021年上届市政选举中获得46%选票，较2011年的62%已大幅下滑。其主要竞争对手民主联盟近年得票率徘徊在22%左右，多个小党也在争夺生存空间。
The ANC won 46% of votes in the last municipal elections in 2021, down from 62% in 2011. Its main competitor, the Democratic Alliance, has hovered around 22% of votes in recent years, while a number of smaller parties have vied for space.
包括约翰内斯堡在内的主要大都市预计不会出现明显赢家，这意味着各党将不得不进行谈判以组建联合政府。
Major municipalities including Johannesburg are not expected to have any clear winner, meaning that parties will have to negotiate to form coalition governments.
从结果宣布之日起——预计周日宣布——它们将有两周时间完成这一进程。
They will have two weeks from the declaration of results - expected on Sunday - to do so.
分析人士表示，对于约翰内斯堡等城市的稳定而言，最佳选择是非洲人国民大会与民主联盟合作，效仿他们在国家政府中的安排。
Analysts have said that best option for stability in cities such as Johannesburg would be for the ANC to partner with the DA, mirroring the arrangement they have in national government.
但两党在种族补偿等关键问题上意识形态对立。非洲人国民大会也可能决定与左翼的经济自由斗士党以及前总统雅各布·祖马领导的民族之矛党联手，将亲商的民主联盟排除在外。
But the two are ideologically opposed on key issues such as racial redress. The ANC could also decide to team up with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters and former president Jacob Zuma's party uMkhonto weSizwe, cutting out the pro-business DA.