佛罗里达州奥兰多，11月4日电 - 投资者周三积极入市，在民主党从特朗普总统所属的共和党手中夺得国会两院控制权的历史性美国中期选举后，资金涌入股票、债券、非美元货币和黄金。全球油价大幅下跌也助推了普遍的看涨情绪。
ORLANDO, Florida, Nov 4 - Investors put money to work on Wednesday, piling into stocks, bonds, non-dollar currencies and gold following historic US midterm elections that saw the Democrats win control of both houses of Congress from President Donald Trump's Republican Party. The widespread bullishness was also fueled by a steep fall in global oil prices.
在今天的专栏中，我将探讨高通胀和负担能力危机在美国中期选举中扮演的角色，这场选举以现任共和党总统在有生之年遭遇的最大惨败之一告终。今日重点阅读
In my column today, I look at the part high inflation and the affordability crisis played in the US midterm elections, which ended in one of the biggest defeats for an incumbent Republican president in living memory. Today's Key Reads
- 今日关键市场动向 股票：日本 -1.5%，中国 +2.3%。欧洲 +1.8%，英国 +1%。巴西 +1%，终结六连跌。纳斯达克 +1.4%，标普500指数 +1.6%，道琼斯指数 +3%。板块/个股：标普500指数九个板块上涨，两个下跌。五个板块涨幅达3%或以上，非必需消费品 +4.2%。能源 -4.8%。数据中心、国防股下跌。大型医疗健康股涨幅达两位数，但CVS -12.5%。外汇：美元跌至9月30日以来最低。新兴市场货币反弹，尤其是墨西哥比索和智利比索。比特币涨3%重回8万美元上方。债券：德国国债收益率跌至两个月低点，30年期英国长期国债收益率录得5月以来最大跌幅，10年期收益率跌至7月以来低点。美国收益率全线下跌3-7个基点。油价暴跌，布伦特原油、西德克萨斯中质原油 -8%。黄金 +3.5% 重回4000美元/盎司上方，录得8月19日以来最佳单日表现。今日谈点：僵局，算什么僵局 等等，华盛顿的政治僵局和“跛脚鸭”总统，难道不是股市的坏消息吗？若以周三华尔街的飙升为准，答案是否定的。随着民主党“大获全胜”的消息于周二晚间传出，纳斯达克期货一度下跌 2.5%。这只科技股为主的指数周三收盘上涨近 1.5%，道琼斯指数录得去年 4 月以来最大单日涨幅。
• Democratic sweep adds new twist to markets' Iran, AI, and debt worries • Election stiffens the Fed's guardrails, but independence risks remain • US trade deficit narrows slightly in September; imports hit record high • ECB rate hike looks nearly certain after inflation rises to three-year high • Global central banks hit pause in October after September hiking spree • Today's Key Market Moves STOCKS: Japan -1.5%, China +2.3%. Europe +1.8%, UK +1%. Brazil +1%, snaps six-day losing streak. Nasdaq +1.4%, S&P 500 +1.6%, Dow +3%.SECTORS/SHARES: Nine sectors on the S&P 500 rise, two fall. Five sectors +3% or more, consumer discretionaries +4.2%. Energy -4.8%. Data center, defense shares fall. Big healthcare stocks post double-digit gains, but CVS -12.5%.FX: Dollar lowest since September 30. Emerging FX rallies, especially Mexican and Chilean pesos. Bitcoin +3% above $80,000.BONDS: German bund yield lowest in two months, 30-year gilt yield posts biggest fall since May, 10-year yield lowest since July. US yields down 3-7 bps across theOil tumbles, Brent, WTI -8%. Gold +3.5% back above $4,000/oz, best day since August 19. Today's Talking Points: Gridlock, schmidlock Wait, aren't political gridlock and a "lame duck" president in Washington meant to be bad news for stock markets? Not if Wall Street's whoosh on Wednesday is anything to go by. As news of the Democrats' "clean sweep" hit the wires late on Tuesday night, Nasdaq futures were down as much as 2.5%. The tech-heavy index closed Wednesday up nearly 1.5%, and the Dow had its best day since April last year.
原来，对于未来两年华盛顿由谁掌控什么这一确定性，市场颇为欢迎。这提供了一种可预期性，并降低了实施更激进政策的可能性。若属实，政治背景将更为平静。此外，历史显示总统任期第二年的市场表现往往疲软，因此中期选举后的反弹门槛较低。这一次会有所不同吗？石油成为改变局势的因素？
As it turns out, the certainty of knowing who controls what in Washington for the next two years is rather welcome. It offers a sense of predictability, and reduces the likelihood of more radical policies being implemented. If so, the political backdrop is calmer. Also, history shows market performance in the second year of a presidential term is often weak, so the bar for recovery after the midterms is low. Will this time be different? Game-changer oil?
本周刚过半，但周三油价暴跌使布伦特原油和 WTI 原油期货有望录得 2020 年 4 月全球疫情白热化阶段以来最大单周跌幅。布伦特原油本周迄今下跌近 20%，WTI 原油下跌 15%。这将缓解通胀压力，在其他条件不变的情况下，对股市和债市构成利好。
We're only at the midpoint of the week, but the plunge in oil prices on Wednesday puts Brent and WTI crude futures on course for their biggest weekly decline since the white heat of the global pandemic in April 2020. Brent is down nearly 20% so far this week, WTI is down 15%. This will cool inflationary pressures and, ceteris paribus, is bullish for stocks and bonds.
特朗普承认，伊朗战争的不受欢迎是其党派败选的主要因素。他本周还表示，美国将在今年后停止每年 40 亿美元对以色列的资助。与此同时，卡塔尔加强斡旋努力，以结束美伊冲突。战争终结最终、这一次真的在望了吗？油市的交易表现得仿佛真是这样。
Trump admitted that the unpopularity of the Iran war was a major factor in his party's defeat. He also said this week that the US will stop its $4 billion annual funding of Israel after this year. Meanwhile, Qatar has stepped up mediation efforts to end the US-Iran conflict. Could an end to the war finally, this time, be in sight? The oil market is trading as if it is.
英格兰银行将于周四决定利率，预计将最终加入大多数十国集团（G10）同行行列，加息以对抗通胀。这将是该行三年多来的首次加息。英国目前已拥有四国集团（G4）中最高的实际利率，加息将进一步扩大这一差距。利率期货市场显示，到明年底预计将累计紧缩约100个基点。
Take it to the Bank The Bank of England decides interest rates on Thursday, and is expected to finally join most of its G10 peers in raising borrowing costs to combat inflation. It would be the Bank's first hike in more than three years. The UK already boasts the highest real rates in the G4, so a hike would widen that gap even further. Around 100 basis points of tightening is priced in by the end of next year, rates futures markets show.
对英镑是利好？很可能。英镑兑美元周三升至七周高位，接近测试1.35美元关口。英镑兑欧元徘徊在去年3月以来的最高水平附近。外汇走强将有助于降温通胀，但对缩窄贸易赤字帮助不大。明日何因素可能推动市场？
Good news for sterling? Probably. The pound rose to a seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday, and is close to testing $1.35. It is hovering around its highest level against the euro since March last year. FX strength will help cool inflation, but won't do much to narrow the trade deficit. What could move markets tomorrow? • Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak include Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin