欧洲天然气价格延续跌势，市场普遍押注美国中期选举民主党大胜可能加速解决中东冲突的努力。
European natural gas extended its slide as broader markets bet a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections could accelerate efforts to find a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East.
基准期货连续第四天下跌，本周迄今累计下跌约18%。副总统万斯周三将共和党中期选举失利归咎于政府不得人心的对伊朗战争，总统特朗普似乎也承认了这一点。民主党赢得国会两院控制权，使其在政府支出上拥有更大杠杆，并可能限制特朗普推动冲突的能力。
Benchmark futures fell for a fourth day, losing about 18% so far this week. Vice President JD Vance on Wednesday blamed Republican midterm losses on the administration’s unpopular war with Iran, a point which President Donald Trump appeared to acknowledge. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, giving them greater leverage over government spending and potentially constraining Trump’s ability to pursue the conflict.
这场战争已使全球近五分之一的液化天然气出口退出市场，导致欧洲今冬燃料库存异常偏低，并引发欧洲与亚洲争夺供应的前景。两地天然气价格近期飙升至2022年以来最高水平，较年初上涨两倍多。
The war has taken nearly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas exports off the market, leaving Europe with abnormally low fuel inventories for this winter and raising the prospect of intense competition with Asia for supplies. Gas prices in both regions recently surged to their highest levels since 2022, more than triple where they started the year.
荷兰国际集团策略师沃伦·帕特森和埃娃·曼特海在报告中表示：“美国中期选举民主党全胜后，能源市场承受巨大压力，因市场期待政治变局能加速结束与伊朗的战争。然而，从基本面看，欧洲天然气市场依然紧张。”随气温下降，欧洲交易商开始动用天然气储存，而风能和太阳能发电量下降。欧盟天然气储存水平降至74%——低于五年同期平均的90%。最大经济体德国的储存水平更低于61%。
“Energy markets are under significant pressure following the Democrats’ clean sweep in the US midterms as hopes grow that the political shift could accelerate efforts to bring the war with Iran to an end,” ING Groep NV strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note. “However, fundamentally, the European gas market remains tight.”European traders have started tapping into gas storage as temperatures fell this week, while wind and solar power output dipped. Gas-storage levels across the European Union fell to 74% — down from a five-year seasonal average of 90%. In the biggest economy, Germany, those levels are below 61%.
作为欧洲天然气基准的荷兰下月期货在阿姆斯特丹时间上午8:59下跌2.6%，报每兆瓦时85.83欧元。价格一度触及两周多来最低水平。
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, traded 2.6% lower at €85.83 a megawatt-hour by 8:59 a.m. in Amsterdam. Prices briefly touched their lowest levels in over two weeks.