伊朗是周二大选最大赢家——至少德黑兰很可能会得出这一结论。
Iran is the biggest winner of Tuesday’s election Iran is the biggest winner of Tuesday’s election — or at least, that is what Tehran will likely conclude.
回顾上个月，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发言人侯赛因·莫赫比将军在一封致“尊敬的美利坚合众国人民”的25页信中，鼓励“美国人在中期选举前投票反对特朗普总统，以改变美国对德黑兰的政策，并接受‘和平共处’的提议。”他们照做了。伊朗得到了他们想要的政权更迭。发生了什么？俗话说，“美国人爱赢家。”无论出于何种原因，特朗普向伊朗发起挑战却未能给予决定性打击，转而寻求打平、达成“协议”，正如他常说的那样。
Recall that last month, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Gen. Hossein Mohebbi, in a 25-page letter to the “Honorable People of the United States of America,” encouraged “Americans to vote against President Trump ahead of the midterm elections to change U.S. policy toward Tehran and accept the offer of a “peaceful coexistence.” They did. Iran got the regime change they wanted. What happened? As the saying goes, “American’s love a winner.” For whatever reason, Trump took on Iran but failed to deliver a decisive blow, opting instead to play for the tie and make “a deal,” as he likes to say. Trump told the American public that the war with Iran — Operation Epic Fury — would “last four to five weeks but could “go far longer than that.” And it has — 250 days. Nearly 36 weeks.
特朗普曾告诉美国公众，与伊朗的战争——“史诗般的愤怒”行动——将“持续四到五周，但可能‘远超这一时间’。”而实际已持续——250天。近36周。“史诗般的愤怒”行动仅持续了38天——略超五周。
Epic Fury lasted just 38 days — a little over five weeks.
伊朗最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊及许多政权高层领导人在首轮空袭中被击毙。当时的假设是政权将崩溃，伊朗民众最终会起来“接管他们的政府”。但政权并未崩溃。在伊斯兰革命卫队和巴西吉准军事力量的部分支撑下，政权继续掌权。政权生存是他们的信条。当特朗普要求伊朗“无条件投降”时，他们更加坚定抵抗。长达47年的专制神权统治与灌输，为他们的抵抗奠定了基础。
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many of the regime’s senior leaders were killed in the opening airstrike. The assumption was that the regime would collapse and the Iranian people would eventually rise up and “take over [their] government.”But it did not collapse. The regime remained in power, thanks in part to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary. Regime survival was their mantra. When Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” they dug in deeper. Forty-seven years of autocratic theocracy and indoctrination provided the foundation for their resistance.
特朗普告诉我们，他的目标已经实现：“摧毁伊朗的弹道导弹武库和生产能力，歼灭其海军，切断其对恐怖代理人的支持，并确保世界头号恐怖主义国家赞助者永远无法获得核武器。” 按常规标准，德黑兰已被击败。美国摧毁了伊朗的海军和空军，以及其核威胁能力。伊朗的防空系统和制造导弹的能力也在很大程度上被摧毁。
Trump told us his objectives had been achieved: “obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and production capability, annihilate its navy, sever its support for terrorist proxies and ensure the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism never acquires a nuclear weapon.”Conventionally, Tehran was defeated. The U.S. destroyed Iran’s Navy and Air Force, along with its nuclear threat capability. Iran’s anti-aircraft systems and missile-building capabilities were largely knocked out as well.
尽管这很重要，但该政权依然掌权，并继续对其能控制的事物施加影响：石油价格。
As important as that is, the regime has remained in power and continued to exert influence over what it could control: the price of oil.
最初，伊朗成功封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，并袭击了邻国海湾国家的炼油厂。随后，他们利用代理人——也门胡塞武装和伊拉克什叶派民兵——袭击沙特阿拉伯的炼油厂及其东西向输油管道。胡塞武装后来还威胁在其他关键咽喉要道——红海、曼德海峡和亚丁湾——攻击航运。
Initially, Iran was able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz and attacked oil refineries in neighboring Gulf nation states. Then they leveraged their proxies — Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq — to attack Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries and their East-West pipeline. Houthi rebels would later threaten shipping at other key choke-points — the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden.
在非对称层面上，他们仍在战斗。而白宫不得不吸取的教训是，仅靠空中力量无法击败该政权——军事航空发展一百多年本应早已证明这一点。
Asymmetrically they were still in the fight. And as the White House would have to learn, air power alone was not going to defeat the regime — something more than a century of military aviation should have already made clear.
特朗普发起的永久停火始于4月7日。至今已达212天——30周。这给了伊朗所需的喘息空间以进行周旋，并顺应了其强项，即谈判。
Trump’s forever cease-fire was initiated on April 7. It has now reached 212 days — 30 weeks. It provided Iran the breathing room it needed to maneuver and played to its strength, which is negotiations.
在巴基斯坦和卡塔尔调解人的协助下，德黑兰干脆在谈判桌上击败了特朗普的谈判团队——副总统万斯、特使威特科夫和女婿库什纳。伊朗人将这场不流血的战争拖延至大选日，推高了石油和柴油成本，并将负担转嫁给美国选民最承受不起的地方——他们的钱包。
With the assistance of mediators from Pakistan and Qatar, Tehran simply outplayed the Trump negotiation team of Vice President J.D. Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner. The Iranians dragged the non-shooting war out to election day, driving up the cost of oil and diesel and shifting the burden onto American voters where they could least afford it — their pocket books.
当白宫将国家力量的主要手段从军事工具转向经济工具时，时间已所剩无几。
By the time the White House had shifted its primary effort from the military instrument of national power to the economic instrument, they were running short on time.
“经济贱民行动”虽取得成效，但实施过晚，无法在大选前结束战争，即便我们确实帮助海湾合作伙伴获得了15亿桶原油，同时通过封锁阻止了伊朗出口本国石油。
As successful as Operation Economic Outcast was, it was implemented too late to bring the war to a close prior to the election, even if we did help Gulf partners get 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil while preventing Iran with a blockade from exporting its own oil.
伊朗提高了特朗普政府的经商成本——具体而言，是保险费用和军事护航成本。对白宫和伊朗而言，终点线是11月3日。伊朗比华盛顿更持久。但正如国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥所描述，这个“由疯子——宗教狂热疯子”统治、怀有“拥有核武器野心”的政权依然掌权。
Iran raised the cost of doing business for the Trump administration — specifically, the cost of insurance and military escorts. For the White House and Iran, the finish line was Nov. 3. Iran outlasted Washington. But the regime, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described as, “run by lunatics — religious fanatic lunatics” with “an ambition to have nuclear weapons” is still in power.
那么现在的计划是什么？放弃伊朗、允许该政权继续掌权绝不能成为最终状态。这无非是用永久停火换取该地区的永久动荡。
So what’s the plan now? Walking away from Iran and allowing the regime to remain in power cannot be the end state. It simply trades out a forever cease-fire for forever instability in the region.
解决之道始于应对伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的杠杆作用。必须实现两个关键要素：确保海峡安全，并推翻该政权。
The solution begins with addressing Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Two critical elements must be achieved: Secure the strait and remove the regime from power.
美国控制着海峡，但未将其安全化；美国削弱了政权，但未将其推翻。伊朗很可能会利用周二大选的结果强化其谈判立场，并在过程中保住其核武器计划。
The U.S. has control of the strait but has not secured it. The U.S. has weakened the regime, but has not removed it from power. Iran will likely use the outcome of Tuesday’s elections to harden its negotiating position and save its nuclear weapons program in the process.
乔纳森·斯威特上校（退役）曾担任30年军事情报官，于2012至2014年领导美国欧洲司令部情报接触处。马克·托思撰写国家安全与外交政策文章。二人为INTREP360及Substack平台INTREP360情报报告的联合创始人。
Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the cofounders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.