11月4日，佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯（共和党）站在塔拉哈西的讲台上，称周二的选举结果是“全美共和党面临的灭绝级事件”。他并非夸大其词。据早期估算，民主党有望以13至14个百分点的优势赢得全国众议院普选票，这是自1974年以来任何一方取得的最大优势。两年前，民主党在同一项普选中落后2.6个百分点。这是单个周期内超过15个百分点的摆动。要理解这是如何发生的，请看民主党在哪里获胜。
On Nov. 4, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) stood at a podium in Tallahassee and called Tuesday’s results “an extinction-level event for Republicans across the country.”He wasn’t exaggerating. By early estimates, Democrats are on track to win the national House vote by 13 to 14 points, the largest margin for either party since 1974. Two years ago, Democrats lost that same vote by 2.6 points. That is a swing of more than 15 points in a single cycle. To understand how, look at where Democrats won.
周二，民主党翻转了七个参议院席位，且未失去任何一个。他们在得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州、北卡罗来纳州、缅因州获胜。在众议院，民主党至少翻转了40个席位。民主党在得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州、爱荷华州和佐治亚州赢得了州长职位。仅在爱荷华州，民主党就翻转了三个众议院席位。民主党还夺回了10个州议会的控制权，并新增了585个州议会席位。
Democrats flipped seven Senate seats on Tuesday and lost none. They won in Texas, Ohio. Iowa. Kansas. South Carolina. North Carolina. Maine. In the House, Democrats have flipped at least 40 seats. Democrats won governorships in Texas, Ohio, Iowa and Georgia. In Iowa alone, Democrats flipped three House seats. Democrats also flipped control of 10 statehouses and gained 585 statehouse seats.
昨天的选举版图大多覆盖特朗普总统曾赢下的州。多年来，民主党将许多这样的州视为无望之地。它们之所以翻转，并非因为选举日或选前几周发生的事情。昨天胜利的基础始于21个月前。
Most of yesterday’s map runs through states President Trump carried. For years, the Democratic Party treated many of those states as lost causes. None of them flipped because of what happened on Election Day, or even the few weeks before. The groundwork for yesterday’s victories began 21 months ago.
2025年2月，肯·马丁出任民主党全国委员会主席时，做出了一项押注。他说，民主党全国委员会必须“到处组织、到处竞争，这样我们才能在任何地方获胜”。他以前打过这仗——作为明尼苏达州民主-农民-劳工党主席，他在全州范围选战中取得25胜0负的战绩。
When Ken Martin became chairman of the Democratic National Committee in February 2025, he made a bet. He said that the DNC must “organize everywhere and compete everywhere so we can win anywhere.”He had run that play before — as chair of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, he went 25-0 in statewide races.
这笔押注的早期回报在周二之前很久就已显现。在马丁领导下，自特朗普就职以来，民主党已将31个州议会席位从红翻蓝，且未失去任何一个。在民主党全国委员会跟踪的竞选中，民主党获胜或表现优于预期的比例约为90%。
The early returns on that bet came in long before Tuesday. Under Martin, Democrats flipped 31 state legislative seats from red to blue since Trump took office, and lost none. Democrats won or overperformed in roughly 90 percent of the races the DNC tracked.
明尼苏达州25胜0负。州议会翻转31胜0负。参议院7胜0负。众议院翻转40席。
25-0 in Minnesota. 31-0 in statehouse flips. 7-0 in the Senate. 40 seats flipped in the House. That record was built, one efficient dollar at a time. Here’s what the DNC did.
这一战绩是一美元一美元高效投入建立起来的。民主党全国委员会做了什么，如下所示。
First, it provided money for every state party, every month.
首先，它为每个州党部提供每月资金。通过其“州合作伙伴计划”，更非正式地称为“57州战略”，民主党全国委员会（DNC）每月向每个州和领地党部拨付1.75万美元，并向共和党控制的州额外拨付每月5000美元。截至9月，民主党全国党部委员会本周期累计向州党部拨付3890万美元。
Through its State Partnership Program, more informally known as the 57 State Strategy, the DNC sent $17,500 a month to every state and territorial party, plus another $5,000 a month to Republican-controlled states. In total, the Democrats’ national party committees moved $38.9 million into state parties this cycle through September.
这笔稳定的资金既提高了下限，也拔高了周二选举可能达到的上限。当选民对特朗普政府感到不满时，民主党已有人员在一线与他们接触。在缅因州，该计划增加了人员编制，建立起全职专业运作团队。昨晚，缅因州终于让参议员苏珊·柯林斯（共和党）落选。
That steady money raised both the floor and the ceiling of what was possible on Tuesday. When voters turned on the Trump administration, Democrats already had people on the ground to meet them. In Maine, the program added staff to build a full-time professional operation. And last night, Maine finally retired Sen. Susan Collins (R).
其次，民主党倾听选民心声。通过“本地倾听者计划”，民主党全国委员会致电45万名在2020年投票但在2024年弃权的民主党选民，并在61个关键选区与他们进行了1万次真实对话。这些对话很难开展，但我们需要了解为何失去这些选民，以便吸取教训、改进不足。
Second, Democrats listened to the voters. Through its Local Listeners program, the DNC called 450,000 Democrats who voted in 2020 and stayed home in 2024, and held 10,000 real conversations with them in 61 battleground districts. These were difficult conversations to have, but we needed to know why we lost these voters so we could learn and improve.
周二，这些选民——以及许多类似的选民——回归了。拉美裔对民主党的支持率从2024年的55%上升至今年的65%。两年前大体势均力敌的独立选民，这次以约17个百分点的优势转向民主党。
On Tuesday, those voters — and many more like them — came back. Latino support for Democrats rose from 55 percent in 2024 to 65 percent this year. Independents, who split roughly evenly two years ago, broke for Democrats by about 17 points.
第三，民主党全国委员会投资于人才培养。全国党部在全美50个州的地区训练营中，培训了2.5万名组织者和近350名竞选工作人员。它支付薪酬聘用120多名研究员深入选民中间，仅亚利桑那州就增加了7200多名，并为亚利桑那、内华达和宾夕法尼亚等关键摇摆州提供高级职员经费。
Third, the DNC invested in people. The national party trained 25,000 organizers and nearly 350 campaign staffers in regional bootcamps across all 50 states. It paid more than 120 fellows to voters, adding more than 7,200 in Arizona alone, and funded senior staff in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
最后，民主党全国委员会致力于保护投票权。去年仅有5个州设有选民保护项目；如今已有37个州。民主党全国委员会法律团队还针对特朗普的两项有关选举的行政命令赢得了禁令。
Finally, the DNC worked to protect the vote. Last year, five states had voter protection programs; today, 37 do. The DNC’s legal team also won injunctions against both of Trump’s executive orders on elections.
这些工作都不光鲜亮丽。但得益于马丁领导的民主党全国委员会，所有这些工作都在第一条广告播出前就已就绪。共和党做出了不同的押注。
None of this is glamorous work. But thanks to Martin’s DNC, all of it was in place before the first ad aired. Republicans made a different bet.
埃隆·马斯克斥资约4.46亿美元助选共和党人，其中包括通过一个参议院超级政治行动委员会（超级竞选委员会）投入的1.58亿美元，用于支持得克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿。外部团体单单在帕克斯顿身上就花费了超过3.16亿美元。他仍然以约12个百分点的差距败给了詹姆斯·塔拉里科。
Elon Musk spent roughly $446 million to elect Republicans, including $158 million that flowed through a Senate super PAC to back Ken Paxton in Texas. Outside groups spent more than $316 million on Paxton alone. He still lost to James Talarico by about 12 points.
自劳动节以来，共和党团体向国会竞选倾注了超过7.4亿美元。民主党人周二依然横扫战场。
Since Labor Day, Republican groups poured more than $740 million into congressional races. Democrats swept on Tuesday anyway.
这正是许多华盛顿顾问希望民主党全国委员会（DNC）遵循的计划：攒下现金，秋季投放电视广告，选举翌晨收拾走人。但马丁拒绝玩这套陈规旧戏。
That was the plan a lot of D.C. consultants wanted the DNC to follow: bank the cash, spend it on television in the fall, pack up the morning after. But Martin refused to play the same old game.
民主党深谙“后期砸钱”模式，因为我们自己也运作过。我坐过那些会议室，眼看着我们这么干。一份对2024周期的独立“尸检”报告发现，民主党花了近90亿美元，却未留下任何永久性基础设施。共和党刚刚在马斯克的代价下学到了同一个教训。
Democrats know the late-money model well, because we’ve run it ourselves. I’ve sat in those rooms. I watched us do it. An independent autopsy of the 2024 cycle found that Democrats spent nearly $9 billion and left no permanent infrastructure behind. Republicans just learned the same lesson at Musk’s expense.
怀疑论者会说这是一场浪潮，任何民主党全国委员会主席都能乘风破浪。但浪潮造不出船。只需看看得克萨斯州。
The skeptics will say this was a wave, and that any DNC chair would have ridden it. But waves don’t build boats. All you need to do is look at Texas.
得克萨斯州一代人以来一直是民主党的“白鲸”。32年来无民主党人在全州范围内获胜。2018年，贝托·奥罗克在参议院竞选中仅以3个百分点之差落败，民主党在全州范围内依然一无所获。
Texas has been Democrats’ white whale for a generation. No Democrat had won statewide there in 32 years. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of a Senate flip, and Democrats still won nothing statewide.
但这一次，船已经造好。塔拉里科不仅赢得了参议员席位，吉娜·伊诺霍萨（民主党）还击败了州长格雷格·阿博特（共和党）。在几乎所有选票统计完毕的情况下，民主党似乎横扫了得克萨斯州的全州职位，从副州长到铁路委员。
But this time, the boat was already built. Not only did Talarico win his Senate seat, but Gina Hinojosa (D) unseated Gov. Greg Abbott (R). And with nearly every vote counted, Democrats appear to have swept Texas’s statewide offices, from lieutenant governor to railroad commissioner.
如果民主党能竞争得克萨斯州的40张选举人票，2028年的选举版图将不再像我们以前绘制的任何版图。马丁和民主党造好了船。现在他们必须守住它。
If Democrats can compete for Texas’s 40 electoral votes, the 2028 map no longer looks like any map we have drawn before. Martin and the Democratic Party built it. Now they need to keep it.
迈克尔·卡普是民主党全国委员会成员及其规则与章程委员会成员。
Michael Kapp is a member of the Democratic National Committee and its Rules and Bylaws Committee.