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彭博社

选举令数据中心IPO难度加大,此前同行股价大跌Election Raises Hurdle for Data Center IPOs After Peers Tumble

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11月3日,选民在俄亥俄州布鲁克帕克的投票站投票。摄影师:达斯汀·弗朗茨/彭博社Voters cast their ballots at a polling location in Brook Park, Ohio on Nov. 3. Photographer: Dustin Franz/Bloomberg

选民对人工智能基础设施的愤怒情绪,提高了那些为这项技术迅猛增长提供算力的IPO候选企业的门槛。

A flash of anger from voters toward artificial intelligence infrastructure raised the bar for IPO candidates providing computing power to fuel the technology’s surging growth.

民主党在国会选举中大获全胜,并在若干州长竞选中胜出,导致所谓“新云”公司的股价暴跌。随着选情倒向承诺对建设数据中心及其他基础设施施加更严格限制的候选人,投资者和管理团队正在重新评估成本上升和工期延误的风险。

The Democratic sweep of Congress and a handful of governor races sent stock prices spiraling for so-called neoclouds. With contests swinging toward candidates promising tougher restrictions on building data centers and other infrastructure, investors and management teams are re-assessing the risk of increased cost and delayed timelines.

CoreWeave公司和Nebius Group NV周三股价下挫,受到Nscale Ltd.等新云公司潜在投资者的密切关注。Nscale已在美国监管机构公开提交首次公开募股(IPO)申请。

Slumps in shares of CoreWeave Inc. and Nebius Group NV on Wednesday were being closely watched by prospective investors in neoclouds such as Nscale Ltd. which is on file publicly with US regulators for an initial public offering.

波动还波及英伟达等芯片制造商,以及GE Vernova Inc.等为运营提供电力的公司。此前,临时电力系统供应商Aggreko Inc.和软银集团支持的AI基础设施开发商SB Energy Inc.可能即将上市。

Volatility also rippled across chipmakers like Nvidia Corp. and firms that power operations including GE Vernova Inc., ahead of potential debuts for temporary power systems provider Aggreko Inc. and SoftBank Group Corp.-backed AI infrastructure developer SB Energy Inc.

Nscale的一位发言人拒绝置评。Aggreko和SB Energy的代表未立即回应置评请求。

A spokesperson for Nscale declined to comment. Representatives for Aggreko and SB Energy didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

投资者以吉娜·伊诺霍萨当选得克萨斯州州长为例,说明这一转变:对数据中心持更多怀疑态度的候选人获胜,改变了形势的考量。

Investors pointed to Gina Hinojosa’s election as governor of Texas as an example of a shift where the more data center-skeptical candidate’s win changes the calculus.

“在这些地方开发的障碍将会更高,”Janus Henderson全球房地产股票投资组合经理格雷格·库尔表示。“开发将更具挑战性,我们还认为,经验更丰富、资产负债表稳健的运营商——无论上市还是非上市——将更有条件与市政当局合作。”投资者表示,对华尔街而言一个关键区别在于,数据中心生态系统内的公司是否能够获得已经投运项目所提供的算力容量。

“The hurdle is going to get higher to develop in these places,” said Greg Kuhl, global property equity portfolio manager at Janus Henderson. “Development will be more challenging, and we also think more experienced operators — public or private — with good balance sheets will be well placed to work with municipalities.”A critical distinction for Wall Street is whether companies within the data center ecosystem have access to computing-power capacity with projects that are already online, investors say.

Gallo Partners首席投资官迈克尔·阿尔法罗表示:“已经拥有算力的公司将成为赢家,因为任何新建数据中心都会面临问号。”Gallo Partners是一家多空策略和事件驱动型对冲基金。

“Names that already have compute are going to be the winners because there is going to be a question mark around any new data center buildings,” said Michael Alfaro, the chief investment officer of Gallo Partners, a long-short and event-driven hedge fund.

此次选举是Anthropic PBC预计下周启动正式IPO路演之前的最后一个重大日程事件。这笔备受期待的交易一直在推进过程中,尽管选举可能给一些投资者提供了压低估值预期的理由。

The election was the last major calendar event before Anthropic PBC’s expected kickoff of its formal IPO marketing next week. The highly-anticipated deal has continued to advance through the process, though the election could give some investors a reason to talk down valuation expectations.

据彭博新闻社报道,投资者已向参与IPO的银行家表示,他们对公允估值的估计已转向约1.4万亿至1.5万亿美元,不过接近1.75万亿美元的估值也有可能实现。

Investors have told bankers on the IPO that their estimate of a fair valuation has shifted to around $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion, though a valuation of closer to $1.75 trillion is potentially achievable, Bloomberg News has reported.

Gallo Partners的阿尔法罗认为,Anthropic的目标估值需要在1.3万亿至1.4万亿美元之间,“才能构建一份高质量的簿记”。Anthropic的一位发言人拒绝置评。

Gallo Partners’ Alfaro sees Anthropic targeting a valuation between $1.3 trillion and $1.4 trillion needed “in order to build a quality book.”A spokesperson for Anthropic declined to comment.

过去一个月对部分最知名的上市AI基础设施股票来说颇为艰难。截至周三收盘,CoreWeave下跌了45%,而Nebius的市值蒸发了39%。数据中心REITs的表现则较好,Equinix Inc.上涨3%,Digital Realty Trust Inc.股价攀升2.8%。

The past month has been tough for some of the most prominent publicly-traded AI infrastructure stocks. CoreWeave is down 45% as of Wednesday’s close, while Nebius has wiped out 39% of its value. Performance has been better for data center REITs, with Equinix Inc. up 3% while Digital Realty Trust Inc. shares have climbed 2.8%.

库尔表示:“现实情况是,IPO定价是相对于市场上现有公司来确定的,而这些可比公司在很多情况下已经变得更便宜了,所以这一点已经反映在定价中了。”

“The reality is IPOs are priced relative to the existing companies in the market and those comps, in a lot of cases, have gotten cheaper, so that’s already in the mix,” Kuhl said.

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