数千名军事人员本周调往雅加达，加剧了外界对印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃·苏比安托与其前任佐科·维多多之间裂痕扩大的猜测，同时也暴露了该国军警之间长期存在的紧张关系。
The mobilization of thousands of military personnel to Jakarta this week has intensified speculation about a widening rift between Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and his predecessor, Joko Widodo, while exposing long-running tensions between the country’s military and police.
这一异常事态发展，源于佐科任命的前国家警察总长因涉嫌与其他高级警官非法窃听普拉博沃而被捕，总统府称该行为可能构成叛国罪或企图推翻政府罪。
The unusual development followed the arrest of a Widodo-appointed former national police chief on suspicion that he and other senior officers had illegally wiretapped Prabowo, conduct the president’s administration said could amount to treason or an attempt to overthrow the government.
尽管有这一惊人指控，但周四雅加达并无迫在眉睫的安全威胁迹象。商业活动似乎正常，市中心几无大规模军事部署的痕迹。股市收盘上涨2.2%，盾兑美元汇率从18,165升至18,082。
Despite that dramatic claim, there was no indication of an imminent security threat in the capital on Thursday. Business activity appeared normal, and there was little evidence of a heavy military presence downtown. The stock market closed 2.2% higher, while the rupiah strengthened against the greenback to 18,082 per dollar from 18,165.
战略咨询公司FGS Global副总监德迪·迪纳托表示：“几乎没有迹象表明对普拉博沃总统职位存在可信威胁，鉴于他获得军方和执政联盟的强力支持。”“大规模军事调动可能是一种预防性举措，旨在防止安全部门内部的紧张局势升级，”迪纳托说，并提到这位前警方领导人在警方内部长期拥有影响力。
“There is little to suggest a credible threat to Prabowo’s presidency, given his strong backing from the military and the ruling coalition,” said Dedi Dinarto, associate director at strategic advisory firm FGS Global. “The large-scale military deployment could be a precautionary move to prevent tensions within the security establishment from escalating,” Dinarto said, citing the former police leader’s longstanding influence within the police.
军方为雅加达安保调动了近21,000名海军人员，部署7,840人，另有13,140人处于待命状态。分析人士称，如此详细的作战计划公之于众，包括涉及部队、部队调动和运输安排，实属罕见。
The military mobilized nearly 21,000 Navy personnel for security in Jakarta, deploying 7,840 and placing another 13,140 on standby. Analysts said it was unusual for such a detailed operational plan to become public, including the units involved, troop movements and transport arrangements.
军方表示，此次调动既关乎国家安全，也关乎计划中的军事演习，并称其警戒等级仍维持在最低级别。过去在发生公众骚乱（包括抗议活动）时，该等级曾被上调。
The military, which has said the mobilization is related both to national security and planned military drills, also said its alert status remained at its lowest level. It has been raised in the past during episodes of public unrest, including protests.
“如果没有进一步的证据，我会对将此部署归因于特定政治动机持谨慎态度，”新加坡拉惹兰姆国际关系学院的海事安全研究员约瑟夫·克里斯坦托说。
“Without further evidence, I would be hesitant to attribute a specific political motivation to the deployment,” said Joseph Kristanto, a maritime security researcher at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
但事态的发展给普拉博沃与已故的乔科威（亦称约科威）之间那份脆弱的政治协议带来了新的压力。正是这份协议帮助普拉博沃赢得了2024年总统选举。他将多位约科威的盟友提升至重要政府职务，其中包括约科威的长子吉布兰·拉卡布明·拉卡，任命其为副总统。吉布兰的政治前景如今因其学历资历正接受调查而变得不明朗，该调查可能影响其继续执政的能力。
But the sequence of events puts fresh strain on the tenuous political pact Prabowo forged with Widodo, also known as Jokowi, that helped Prabowo win the 2024 presidency. He elevated several Jokowi allies to prominent government positions, including Jokowi’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as vice president. Gibran’s political future is now unclear amid an ongoing investigation into his educational credentials that could affect his ability to remain in office.
窃听事件的发展可能为普拉博沃提供“进一步巩固政治权威、削弱与约科威有关人物”的机会，迪纳托说。
The wiretapping development could give Prabowo “an opportunity to further consolidate his political authority and weaken figures associated with Jokowi,” Dinarto said.
政府传播局未对普拉博沃与约科威的关系现状作出评论。该局表示，部队部署是军方“履行国家职责、保护印尼人民、维护国家统一”的准备工作。此事也凸显了军方（普拉博沃曾是将领并与之有深厚联系和忠诚）与警察（约科威在任期间在警界建立了强大支持基础）之间的持续竞争。
The Government Communication Agency didn’t comment on the state of Prabowo-Jokowi ties. It said the troop deployment was part of the military’s “readiness to carry out state duties, protect the Indonesian people and safeguard national unity.”The episode also highlights the ongoing rivalry between the military, where Prabowo was a former general and has strong ties and loyalties, and the police, where Jokowi built a strong base of support during his presidency.
“这里存在两层冲突，”雅努阿尔·努格罗霍说，他曾任佐科维副幕僚长，现为新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院（ISEAS）访问高级研究员。“普拉博沃与佐科维，以及军队与警方。”
“There are two levels of conflict here,” said Yanuar Nugroho, a former deputy chief of staff to Jokowi and now a visiting senior fellow at ISEAS in Singapore. “Prabowo and Jokowi, and the military versus the police.”
前警方总长的被捕凸显了这种双重动态。作为佐科维盟友的利斯蒂约·西吉特·普拉博沃最初被普拉博沃留任。但普拉博沃上月决定将其从国家警察总长调任为总统幕僚长，早已引发外界对利斯蒂约地位以及普拉博沃与佐科维之间妥协能否持久的质疑。（尽管同名，利斯蒂约与总统并无亲属关系。）“利斯蒂约与前总统佐科维的关系为此案增添了政治维度，”欧亚集团的奥尔加·莱蒂西娅在一份报告中写道。
The arrest of the former police chief encapsulates that dual dynamic. Listyo Sigit Prabowo, a Jokowi ally, was initially retained by Prabowo. But Prabowo’s decision last month to shift him from national police chief to presidential chief of staff had already raised questions about Listyo’s standing and the durability of Prabowo’s accommodation with Jokowi. (Despite sharing a name, Listyo and the president are not related.)“Listyo’s ties to former president Jokowi add a political dimension to the case,” Olga Letticia at Eurasia Group wrote in a note.
这位前警方总长“被视为佐科维最有影响力的盟友之一。因此，调查可能引发猜测，即此案是否反映了普拉博沃与佐科维关系的破裂。”十月的改组还将佐科维的前国务秘书普拉蒂克诺从普拉博沃内阁中调离，改任顾问角色。
The ex-police chief is “seen as one of Jokowi’s most influential allies. The investigation could therefore fuel speculation about whether the case reflects a breakdown in relations between Prabowo and Jokowi.”The October reshuffle also moved Pratikno, Jokowi’s former state secretary, out of Prabowo’s cabinet and into an advisory role.
动荡发生之际，普拉博沃曾经的高支持率正在下滑，随着该国股市面临全球指数编制公司MSCI公司降级风险，其总统任期面临的经济险境加剧。这一举措可能引发数百亿美元资金外流，并导致货币大幅贬值。
The upheaval comes as Prabowo’s once-high popularity fades and the economic jeopardy to his presidency worsens as the country’s stock market risks being downgraded by global index provider MSCI Inc. That step could trigger an outflow of tens of billions of dollars from the country and send the currency spiraling downward.
据赛富勒·穆贾尼研究与咨询公司的一项调查，随着生活成本上升和腐败恶化的看法蔓延，普拉博沃的支持率上月降至其于2024年10月就职以来的最低点。同一机构的民调显示，认为国家发展方向正确的印尼人比例较普拉博沃就职时下降了约35个百分点。
Prabowo’s approval rating last month fell to its lowest since he took office, in October 2024, on rising living costs and perceptions of worsening corruption, according to a survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting. Polling by the same firm found the share of Indonesians who say the country is moving in the right direction has fallen by about 35 percentage points since Prabowo’s inauguration.