东京 —— 投资者正在权衡美国人工智能投资放缓的前景，此前民主党在中期选举中大获全胜，这可能会扭转货币市场局势，使其向有利于日元的方向发展。
TOKYO -- Investors are weighing the prospect of slower U.S. artificial-intelligence investment after the Democratic Party's sweeping midterm election win, which could turn the currency market tide in the yen's favor.
市场普遍预期会出现民主党大获全胜的“蓝色浪潮”，民主党通常被视为更支持人工智能监管。但周二共和党惨败的程度超出了预测，民主党候选人甚至在德克萨斯州获胜，这个深红州是越来越多数据中心的所在地。
Markets had widely expected a "blue wave" of gains by Democrats, who are generally seen as more supportive of AI regulation. But Tuesday's rout of the Republican party exceeded predictions, with Democratic candidates winning even in Texas, a deep-red state that is home to a growing number of data centers.
大同生命保险执行役员清友良孝表示：“受人工智能相关股票下跌等因素触发，日元升值有可能加速。”
"It's possible that yen appreciation could gather momentum, triggered by declines in AI-related stocks and other factors," said Yoshitaka Kiyotomo, an executive officer at Taiyo Life Insurance.
清友表示，日元疲软受到日美两国当局干预风险的抑制，但向上波动的幅度可能会变大。
Yen weakness is being restrained by the risk of intervention by Japanese and U.S. authorities, but swings to the upside could become bigger, Kiyotomo said.
据清友透露，为应对日元走强，大同生命持有以美元兑日元150日元下半段为行权价、买入日元的期权。周四东京时段，日元兑美元交易价格在158日元左右。
To be ready for a stronger yen, Taiyo Life holds options for buying the Japanese currency with a strike price in the lower 150 yen range against the dollar, according to Kiyotomo. The Japanese currency was trading at around 158 yen to the dollar during Tokyo hours Thursday.
不断上升的人工智能投资一直是美国经济增长和股市上涨的最大驱动力。人工智能热潮吸引了来自世界各地的资金，推高了美元。
Rising AI investment has been the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth and stock market gains. The AI boom has drawn in money from around the world, lifting the dollar.
源于设备和材料价格上涨的通胀担忧，随着美国利率上升，也支撑了美元。如果人工智能投资前景黯淡，这些资本流动可能会逆转。
Inflation concerns stemming from higher prices for equipment and materials have also bolstered the dollar as U.S. interest rates have risen. If the outlook for AI investment fades, those capital flows could reverse.
瑞穗银行外汇现货交易部副部长田中纯平表示：“人工智能投资热潮正在失去动力这一看法将挥之不去，并继续拖累美元。”
"The view that the AI investment boom is losing steam will linger and continue to weigh on the dollar," said Junpei Tanaka, deputy head of Mizuho Bank's foreign exchange spot trading team.
美国副总统JD·万斯将本党在选举中的惨败归咎于与伊朗的战争。周四，市场对美伊结束敌对状态谈判取得进展的希望推动原油价格跌至两个月低点，基准美国10年期国债收益率则跌破4.9%。
U.S. Vice President JD Vance blamed his party's crushing election defeat on the war with Iran. Hopes for progress in negotiations to end hostilities between the U.S. and Iran pushed crude oil prices to a two-month low on Thursday, while the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.9%.
投资者此前曾关注选举后美国可能对伊朗发动大规模军事进攻的可能性，但万斯的言论提振了冲突有望结束的希望。与此同时，市场对特朗普政府财政政策将受到约束的预期也在上升。
Investors had eyed the possibility of a large-scale U.S. military offensive in Iran after the election, but Vance's remarks lifted hopes for an end to the conflict. Expectations are also rising that the Trump administration will be reined in on fiscal policy.
“民主党的胜利增加了可能推动利率下行的因素，”澳新银行日本外汇及大宗商品销售总监町田博之表示。
"The Democratic victory has increased factors that could push interest rates lower," said Hiroyuki Machida, director of Japan forex and commodities sales at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group.
町田预计，未来三个月日元兑美元汇率将在150至155之间波动。
Machida expects the yen to trade at 150 to 155 to the dollar over the next three months.
多数交易员认为日元的上行空间有限。财务大臣片山皋月周一重申，当局将“对汇市中任何无序或过度投机性波动采取行动”。
Most traders see the yen's upside as limited. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Monday that authorities would "act against any disorderly or excessively speculative moves" in the currency market.
根据美国商品期货交易委员会的数据，截至10月27日，对冲基金及其他杠杆基金的日元净空头头寸相当于约1.4万份合约，即约1800亿日元（11.4亿美元）。
Hedge funds and other leveraged funds held net short yen positions equivalent to about 14,000 contracts, or roughly 180 billion yen ($1.14 billion), as of Oct. 27, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
在2026财年上半年，当日元兑美元跌破160时，做空日元的投机押注激增，头寸在6月底达到约11.5万份合约的峰值。当前水平约为该峰值的八分之一。
During the first half of fiscal 2026, when the yen weakened beyond 160 to the dollar, speculative bets against the currency surged, with positions peaking at about 115,000 contracts at the end of June. The current level is roughly one-eighth of that peak.
“海外对冲基金似乎正在考虑一种情景，即由于AI股票回调，美联储的加息不会像市场预期的那样推进，”三菱日联信托银行高级研究员冈田祐介表示。
"Overseas hedge funds appear to be considering a scenario in which Federal Reserve rate hikes do not proceed as markets expect because of an AI stock correction," said Yusuke Okada, senior researcher at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.
道富银行东京分行经理若林巴特表示，关键问题是“美国的AI投资热潮是否会持续”。
The key question is "whether the U.S. AI investment boom continues," said Bart Wakabayashi, Tokyo branch manager at State Street.