特朗普总统在2024年赢得了黑人男性历史性水平的支持。两年后，随着共和党遭遇50年来最惨重的中期选举失利，这些增幅似乎已化为乌有。
President Trump won historic levels of support from Black men in 2024. Two years later, those gains appeared to evaporate as Republicans suffered their worst midterm defeat in 50 years.
为何重要：民主党担心最高法院削弱《投票权法案》的裁决会威胁其在南方的政治前途。相反，黑人选民帮助民主党在得克萨斯州和佐治亚州取得历史性胜利，密西西比州也酝酿着一场潜在的冷门。
Why it matters: Democrats feared the Supreme Court's decision weakening the Voting Rights Act would threaten their political future in the South. Instead, Black voters helped deliver historic Democratic victories in Texas and Georgia, with a potential upset brewing in Mississippi.
数字解读：根据美联社选民投票，周二大约十分之九的黑人选民支持民主党众议院候选人 • 只有约十分之一的黑人男性支持共和党。根据美联社分析，2024年总统大选中约四分之一的黑人男性支持特朗普。
By the numbers: Roughly nine in 10 Black voters backed Democratic House candidates Tuesday, according to the AP Voter Poll • Only about one in 10 Black men backed Republicans. Roughly one-quarter supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election, according to AP's analysis.
- 为作对比，另一项2024年全国众议院出口民调显示，黑人选民以84%对14%支持民主党。黑人男性以75%对24%支持民主党，而黑人女性则以90%对8%支持民主党。
• For context, a separate 2024 national House exit poll found Black voters favored Democrats 84%–14%. Black men split 75%–24%, while Black women backed Democrats 90%–8%. State of play:
局势看点：两名曾因黑人选民支持率受到质疑的民主党人赢得了关键的参议院席位。
Two Democrats who faced questions about their support among Black voters won crucial Senate races.
- 密歇根州：进步派民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德击败共和党人迈克·罗杰斯，成为美国首位穆斯林参议员。10月下旬的一项民调显示，埃尔-赛义德在可能投票的黑人选民中获得87%支持率。
• Michigan: Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers, becoming the nation's first Muslim senator. A late-October poll showed El-Sayed drawing 87% support among likely Black voters.
- 得克萨斯州：民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在争取黑人选民支持后击败共和党人肯·帕克斯顿，这些黑人选民在民主党初选中绝大多数支持众议员贾斯明·克罗克特。8月得克萨斯南方大学的一项民调显示，在可能投票的黑人选民中，塔拉里科以79%对12%领先帕克斯顿。
• Texas: Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton after courting Black voters who overwhelmingly backed Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. An August Texas Southern University poll showed Talarico leading Paxton 79%–12% among likely Black voters. Zoom in:
深度聚焦： Talarico在休斯顿所在的哈里斯县和达拉斯县建立了压倒性优势，这两个县都拥有大量黑人选民，据美联社县级统计显示。黑人选民助推前亚特兰大市长Keisha Lance Bottoms当选美国历史上首位黑人女性州长 • 据美联社选民调查，约十分之九的黑人男性投票给Bottoms，而2024年在佐治亚州支持Kamala Harris的黑人男性约为四分之三。黑人女性的支持率维持在90%左右。
Talarico built commanding margins in Harris County, home to Houston, and Dallas County, both home to large Black electorates, according to AP county-level returns Black voters helped elect former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms as the first Black woman governor in U.S. history • About nine in 10 Black men voted for Bottoms, compared with roughly three-quarters who supported Kamala Harris in Georgia in 2024, according to the AP Voter Poll. Black women's support remained around 90%.
- 在黑人占多数的克莱顿县，Bottoms获得近8.6万张选票——比民主党人Stacey Abrams在2022年州长选举中获得的选票多出约1.36万张，美联社报道。
• In majority-Black Clayton County, Bottoms received nearly 86,000 votes — about 13,600 more than Democrat Stacey Abrams received in the 2022 governor's race, AP reported.
在密西西比州联邦参议员选举中民主党人Scott Colom在黑人占多数的欣兹县（杰克逊市所在地）以及黑人占多数的克莱本县和杰斐逊县，对共和党现任参议员Cindy Hyde-Smith建立了压倒性领先，据非正式隔夜统计显示 • 周四上午，Colom在全州范围内保持微弱领先，仍有数千张选票未计，竞争结果尚未揭晓。
In Mississippi's U.S. Senate election Democrat Scott Colom built commanding leads over Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in heavily Black Hinds County, home to Jackson, and majority-Black Claiborne and Jefferson counties, according to unofficial overnight returns • Colom held a narrow statewide lead Thursday morning, with thousands of ballots outstanding and the race still uncalled.
耐人寻味的是：佛罗里达州共和党人Byron Donalds成为该州首位黑人州长，但大多数黑人选民支持民主党人David Jolly。
The intrigue: Florida Republican Byron Donalds became the state's first Black governor, but most Black voters backed Democrat David Jolly.
- 据美联社选民调查，约四分之一的黑人男性投票给Donalds，而黑人女性仅约十分之一。
• About one-quarter of Black men voted for Donalds, compared with just one in 10 Black women, according to the AP Voter Poll.
深层背景：选举结果并未证明黑人投票率出现全国性激增，也未确立对公民权利倒退的愤怒激励了选民。但早期投票显示佐治亚州黑人参与度有所提高。
Between the lines: Election returns don't prove a nationwide surge in Black turnout or establish that anger over civil rights rollbacks motivated voters. But early voting offered signs of heightened Black participation in Georgia.
- 据《亚特兰大宪法报》分析，黑人选民占佐治亚州早期选票的32.4%，高于2022年的30.2%。这些数据并未确立黑人整体投票率是否上升。投票权担忧也可能激励了部分黑人选民。
• Black voters accounted for 32.4% of Georgia's early ballots, up from 30.2% in 2022, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution analysis. The figures don't establish whether the overall Black turnout rate increased. Voting rights concerns may also have motivated some Black voters.
- 一项由民主党倾向的“数据促进”组织于8月在密西西比州进行的调查发现，43%的黑人选民对中期选举比往常更热情，而白人选民这一比例为31%。
• A Democratic-aligned August Data for Progress survey in Mississippi found 43% of Black voters more enthusiastic than usual about the midterms, compared with 31% of white voters.
- 另有53%的黑人选民表示，政客们让投票变得更难、操纵选区划分以及散布虚假选举言论，让参与投票显得更加重要。
• Another 53% of Black voters said politicians making voting harder, gerrymandering and spreading false election claims made participation feel more important.
值得关注：马丁·路德·金的18岁孙女约兰达·蕾妮·金周二在亚特兰大投出了人生第一张选票。
Worth noting: Yolanda Renee King the 18-year-old granddaughter of Martin Luther King Jr., cast her first ballot Tuesday in Atlanta.
核心看点：民主党需要黑人选民才能获胜。
The bottom line: Democrats needed Black voters to win.
- 周二的结果表明，他们维系住了一个在2024年后显得脆弱的联盟——这可能让黑人选民在进入2028年时拥有更大的杠杆作用。
• Tuesday's results suggest they held together a coalition that looked vulnerable after 2024 — potentially giving Black voters more leverage heading into 2028.