
亚特兰大——美国出现了新的政治现实:共和党对南方政治长达数代的控制已被撕裂。
ATLANTA—America has a new political reality: Republicans’ generations-long grip on Southern politics has been torn apart.
民主党人横扫旧邦联各州,在一夜之间拆解了共和党数十年的统治优势。他们在北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州赢得了参议员席位,同时在佐治亚州和得克萨斯州同时拿下了参议员席位和州长府邸。在整个地区,长期由共和党把持的下层州级职位和州议会席位纷纷“翻蓝”。
Sweeping through the states of the old Confederacy, Democrats dismantled decades of GOP dominance in one night. They won Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia while capturing both the Senate races and governor’s mansions in Georgia and Texas. Throughout the region, down-ballot state offices and legislatures long held by Republicans flipped blue.
甚至连密西西比州——该州上一次选出民主党参议员还是1982年——也依然悬而未决。民主党人斯科特·科洛姆与共和党现任参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯陷入胶着,这是此前鲜少有人预料到的。两年前以超过20个百分点优势拿下该州的特朗普总统,上个月重返该州助选。
Even Mississippi, which last elected a Democratic senator in 1982, remains in play. Democrat Scott Colom is locked in a tight race with Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith that few saw coming. President Trump, who carried the state by more than 20 points two years ago, returned there last month to shore up support.
“你们震惊了世界,”参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克(民主党-佐治亚州)在亚特兰大市中心一家酒店宴会厅的选举之夜庆功人群面前说道。“毫不夸张地说,你们正在创造历史。”这场大胜在“桃子州”佐治亚州蔓延得如此之广,以至于民主党人还赢得了副州长、州检察长和州务卿的竞选,以及从农业专员到州教育厅长等基层职位。民主党人还时隔22年重夺佐治亚州众议院控制权,并几乎赢得了州参议院的控制权。
“You shocked the world,” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D., Ga.) told a cheering election-night crowd in a downtown Atlanta hotel ballroom. “It’s no exaggeration to say you are making history tonight.”The sweep was so extensive in the Peach State that Democrats also won the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general and secretary of state, as well as lower posts from agricultural commissioner to school superintendent. Democrats also took control of the Georgia state House for the first time in 22 years and nearly won over the state Senate.
选举结果立即重塑了美国政治版图,引发了关于共和党长期视为铁票仓的州份,可能在2028年总统大选中成为竞争激烈的战场州的猜测。这一结果也在共和党战略家和活动人士中引发了相互指责,争论责任归属。
The results immediately reset America’s political map, prompting speculation that states Republicans have long counted on might now be competitive battlegrounds in the 2028 presidential election. The outcome also triggered finger-pointing among GOP strategists and activists over who was to blame.
“这是一场彻底的惨败,完全咎由自取,”资深佐治亚州共和党策略师瑞安·马霍尼说。“共和党的纲领已从罗纳德·里根的原则被改写为特朗普的原则,变成了非保守主义的东西,也是选民不想要的东西。”即使是共和党获胜的关键竞选,胜出差距也出奇地小。阿拉巴马州共和党人汤米·图伯维尔在州长选举中以4个百分点的优势获胜,而离任的共和党州长凯·艾维在2022年的选举中以近38个百分点的优势获胜。
“It is a complete ass-kicking that is completely deserved,” said Ryan Mahoney, a veteran Georgia GOP strategist. “The Republican Party’s platform has been rewritten from the principles of Ronald Reagan to those of Trump, to things that are not conservative and things voters are not looking for.”Even key races Republicans won saw surprisingly tight margins. Alabama Republican Tommy Tuberville won the governor’s race by 4 percentage points, compared with departing Republican Gov. Kay Ivey, who won her 2022 race by nearly 38 points.
南卡罗来纳州共和党人艾伦·威尔逊在与民主党人杰梅因·约翰逊的激烈角逐中当选州长。在佛罗里达州,这个特朗普的“第二故乡”州的州长选举比预期更胶着,共和党人拜伦·唐纳兹以微弱优势击败了他的民主党对手。
South Carolina Republican Alan Wilson was elected governor after a close contest with Democrat Jermaine Johnson. In Florida, the governor’s race in Trump’s adopted home state was tighter than expected, with Republican Byron Donalds narrowly edging his Democratic opponent.

虽然选举日的溃败令人震惊,但引发这场政治地震的一些力量酝酿已久。根据人口普查估计,近几十年来,前邦联11个州的人口变得多元化程度高得多。非西班牙裔白人和黑人居民历来是该地区最大的两个群体,去年占南方人口的68%,低于2000年的83%。同期,该地区西班牙裔人口占比从13%上升至22%。
While the Election Day rout was stunning, some forces that fueled the political earthquake were years in the making. The population across the 11 states of the former Confederacy has grown much more diverse in recent decades. Non-Hispanic white and Black residents, historically the region’s two largest groups, accounted for 68% of the Southern population last year, down from 83% in 2000, according to census estimates. Over the same period, the region’s share of Hispanics rose to 22% from 13%.

黑人和西班牙裔选民的高投票率提振了整个南方的民主党候选人,并帮助创造了历史。在佐治亚州,凯莎·兰斯·博托姆斯将成为美国首位黑人女性州长,也是自1998年以来首位赢得该州州长选举的民主党人。吉娜·伊诺霍萨将成为德克萨斯州首位西班牙裔州长,詹姆斯·塔拉里科将争取德克萨斯州西班牙裔选民作为其竞选的主要部分,轻松赢得了德克萨斯州参议员席位,推翻了共和党在该州全州范围选举中长达三十年的霸权。
High turnout among Black and Hispanic voters lifted Democratic candidates across the South and helped make history. In Georgia, Keisha Lance Bottoms will become the first Black woman governor in the U.S. and the first Democrat to win a governor’s race there since 1998. Gina Hinojosa will become the first Hispanic governor of Texas, and James Talarico, who made courting Texas’ Hispanic voters a major part of his campaign, easily won his Texas Senate seat, overturning three decades of GOP supremacy in statewide elections there.
针对共和党重划选区举措的反弹——许多人认为这是剥夺黑人选民投票权的企图——激发了动员。在南卡罗来纳州,历史性的黑人选民投票率帮助民主党参议院候选人安妮·安德鲁斯击败共和党人达琳·格雷厄姆,制造重大冷门;格雷厄姆是特朗普亲自挑选的候选人,也是已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆(特朗普的盟友)的妹妹。
Backlash against Republican redistricting efforts, viewed by many as an effort to disenfranchise Black voters, fueled mobilization. In South Carolina, historic Black turnout helped Democratic Senate candidate Annie Andrews post a major upset over Republican Darline Graham, Trump’s handpicked candidate and the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally.
黑人选票也影响了北卡罗来纳州的参议院竞选,民主党人罗伊·库珀以 59% 对 39% 领先共和党人迈克尔·沃特利。在黑人人口比例超过全州 20% 平均水平、且占选票近 40% 的 41 个县,库珀表现更佳;在每一个这样的县,他的得票率都比卡玛拉·哈里斯在 2024 年总统大选中的得票率高出 5 个百分点以上。
The Black vote also affected North Carolina’s Senate race, where Democrat Roy Cooper led Republican Michael Whatley, 59% to 39%. Cooper did even better in the 41 counties where the Black population tops the state average of 20%, and that account for almost 40% of votes. In each of those counties, Cooper’s vote share topped Kamala Harris’s in the 2024 presidential race by more than 5 percentage points.
来自美国其他地区的新居民也在改变南方的身份认同。根据人口普查局的数据,自疫情开始以来,该地区吸引了特别大规模的流入人口;人口普查局将南方定义为 16 个州并包含哥伦比亚特区。估计南方从东北部净流入逾 120 万人,从西部流入 90 万人,从中西部流入 50 万人。许多新居民迁往城区或郊区,推动了从北卡罗来纳州夏洛特都会区、南卡罗来纳州格林维尔到田纳西州纳什维尔等地的人口增长。这种流入正在提高黑人和西班牙裔选民的比例,出口民调显示这些群体倾向民主党。
Newcomers from other parts of the U.S. are also changing Southern identity. Since the pandemic began, the region has attracted a particularly large influx, according to the Census Bureau, which defines the South as 16 states and includes the District of Columbia. It estimates the South netted more than 1.2 million movers from the Northeast, 900,000 from the West and half a million from the Midwest. Many of those residents relocated to urban or suburban areas, driving population gains from metro Charlotte, N.C., to Greenville, S.C., to Nashville, Tenn. The influx is boosting the share of Black and Hispanic voters, who exit polls show lean Democratic.
多年来,南方大部分城市被视为红海中的蓝色孤岛。在亚特兰大、纳什维尔、德克萨斯州奥斯汀等地的汽车和卡车上,红底蓝点的车贴很常见。大家都知道这意味着什么:一个小小的民主党城市核心在政治上被共和党包围。周二,那些蓝点膨胀了。
For years, cities in much of the South were seen as Democratic islands in a sea of red. Bumper stickers were common on cars and trucks in Atlanta, Nashville, Austin, Texas, and elsewhere, showing a blue dot on a red background. Everyone knew what it meant: a small Democratic urban core politically surrounded by Republicans. On Tuesday, those blue dots ballooned.


虽然南部曾长期是民主党的天下,但当时南方民主党人强烈反对的民权运动导致了党内分裂。共和党曾多年来刻意推行“南方战略”以争取南方白人。渐渐地,诸如校园祷告、枪支权利和堕胎等文化议题将许多保守派南方选民推向了共和党。罗纳德·里根也将南方人带入了该党。
While the South was once heavily Democratic, the fight for civil rights, which Southern Democrats strongly opposed at the time, caused ruptures within the party. The Republican Party famously pursued a “Southern strategy” for years to woo white Southerners. Gradually, cultural issues like prayer in schools, gun rights and abortion led many conservative Southern voters to the GOP. Ronald Reagan also brought Southerners to the party.
美世大学政治学教授克里斯·格兰特表示,周二的选举结果并不一定意味着一个新的主导政党已经诞生,而是意味着两党都必须付出更多努力。“牢固的南方正在瓦解。”
Tuesday’s election results don’t necessarily mean a new dominant party has emerged, but rather that both parties will have to work harder, said Chris Grant, a Mercer University political-science professor. “The solid South is breaking up.”
西卡罗来纳大学政治学教授克里斯托弗·库珀说:“昨晚之后,我们正在回归一个两党势均力敌的南方。这是一个令人震惊的结果。”库珀警告说,虽然周二民主党的胜利具有颠覆性,但这并不意味着它是永久性的。
“After last night, we are moving back to a two-party South,” said Christopher Cooper, a political-science professor at Western Carolina University. “It was a stunner.”Cooper cautioned that while Tuesday’s Democratic win was tectonic, that doesn’t mean it is permanent.
他说:“在08年,每个人都说:‘天哪,北卡罗来纳州倒向了奥巴马。它现在是蓝色的了。’不,它并不是。它在下一个选举周期立刻就翻转了,因为它正处于悬崖边缘。”佐治亚州共和党战略家马奥尼表示,农村地区工薪阶层的南方人曾欢迎特朗普的民粹主义信息,并多年支持他。马奥尼说:“这些相同的选民现在正在想:‘天哪,我们被忽悠了。’”
“In ’08, everyone said, ‘Oh, my God, North Carolina flipped for Obama. It’s blue now,’” he said. “No, it wasn’t. It flipped right back in the following cycle because it was right on the precipice.”Mahoney, the Georgia Republican strategist, said rural, working-class Southerners welcomed Trump’s populist message and backed him for years. “Those same voters now are thinking, ‘Man, we got duped,’ “ Mahoney said.
他说,这些曾是整个南方“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)胜利顶梁柱的选民,受到了通货膨胀和飙升的油价的打击。他说,他们很可能会停止大量投票支持共和党,而选择呆在家里。
He said such voters, once the backbone of MAGA victories across the South, have been hit by inflation and soaring gas prices. They likely will stop voting in large numbers for the GOP and just stay home, he said.
马奥尼说:“如果我们只剩下乡村俱乐部共和党人和大企业,我们将永远无法再次赢得大选。”
“If we’re just left with country-club Republicans and big business, we are never going to win again,” Mahoney said.


亚特兰大两家竞争对手的选举之夜聚会气氛展现出了截然不同的命运。
The mood of rival Atlanta election-night parties displayed diverging fortunes.
“迈克·柯林斯竞选参议员”聚会在一家郊区酒店举行,是一场典型的“让美国再次伟大”风格活动:两台大电视播放福克斯新闻,年轻男士穿着西装外套,女士身着亮红色连衣裙。一些年长男士戴着印有“自由”字样的帽子。往年此类场合座无虚席,随着佐治亚州乃至更广泛地区的共和党胜利消息传来,欢呼声此起彼伏。
The “Mike Collins for Senate” party in a suburban hotel was a classic MAGA affair: Fox News on two large televisions, young men in blazers, women in bright red dresses. Some older men wore caps that read “Freedom.”In past years, such rooms were packed, with cheers erupting as Republican victories were announced across Georgia and beyond.
但周二,仅有40名支持者到场,他们的目光避开屏幕。当电视播报员宣布民主党现任参议员乔恩·奥索夫大胜迈克·柯林斯时,无人做出反应。活动进行一小时后,人们开始离场。
But Tuesday, just 40 supporters showed, their eyes avoiding the screens. When TV announcers declared Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff had soundly defeated Mike Collins, no one reacted. An hour into the event, people started leaving.
与此同时,在市中心一家酒店举行的奥索夫及其他民主党人集会上,安检队伍蜿蜒穿过走廊,宴会厅挤得只剩站立空间。室外,庆祝者欢呼雀跃,高喊“凯莎!”,汽车鸣笛声此起彼伏以示支持。
Meanwhile, at a downtown hotel event for Ossoff and other Democrats, security lines snaked through the hallways and a ballroom was standing room only. Outside, revelers cheered, shouting, “Keisha!” as cars honked in support.