周二的政治地震不仅颠覆了华盛顿的权力平衡，也动摇了各州首府的格局。民主党现在控制了宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州、亚利桑那州、密歇根州、内华达州和明尼苏达州的州长办公室和州议会。他们在得克萨斯州、佐治亚州、俄亥俄州和爱荷华州夺取了州长职位。并且他们在八个州打破了共和党的超级多数优势。
Tuesday’s political earthquake upended the balance of power not only in Washington, but also in state capitols. Democrats now control both the governor’s offices and the state legislatures of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Minnesota. They flipped the governor’s office in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa. And they broke Republican supermajorities in eight states.
在一场持续两年的选区重划军备竞赛之后，共和党试图利用重新划定的选区构建一道“红墙”，现在，无论是即将卸任的共和党控制的州议会，还是新近掌权的州级民主党人，在2028年之前都将面临巨大诱惑，想要重新绘制更多有利于本党的选区地图。他们都应该抵制这种冲动——并开始探讨结束这场斗争的途径。
After a two-year gerrymandering arms race that saw Republicans try to build a “red wall” out of redrawn districts, it will be enormously tempting for both lame-duck Republican legislatures and newly powerful state-level Democrats to redraw more maps their own party’s advantage before 2028. They all should resist the urge — and start talking about ways to end this war.
政客们青睐选区操纵是有原因的。挑选选民比争取选民支持要容易得多。但民主制度的一个标志是权力源于人民。只有当选民自由选择代表其利益的代表——并自由地监督问责他们时，这才能实现。选区操纵扭曲了这一切。
There’s a reason politicians like gerrymandering. It’s easier to pick your voters than to try to get the voters to pick you. But a hallmark of a democratic system is that power flows from the people. That can only happen when voters are free to choose representatives who represent their interests — and free to hold them to account. Gerrymandering distorts all that.
尽管共和党新近重划的选区最终未能在周二挽救他们免于失去多数席位，但该党仍受到他们完善了数十年的选区操纵的保护。以佐治亚州为例，民主党夺取了州长职位，囊括了选票上所有全州范围的竞选职位，并有望22年来首次赢得州众议院多数席位。但美国国会选区地图经过精心操纵以利于共和党，尽管民主党在该州大获全胜，佐治亚州明年仍将派遣九名共和党人和五名民主党人前往华盛顿。
Although the GOP’s newly redrawn seats ultimately failed to save them from losing their majority on Tuesday, the party was still protected by gerrymanders they had been perfecting for decades. In Georgia, for example, Democrats flipped the governor’s office, swept every statewide contest on the ballot, and were poised to win a majority in the state House of Representatives for the first time in 22 years. But the US congressional map has been so manipulated to benefit Republicans that despite the Democratic rout in the state, Georgia will send nine Republicans and five Democrats to Washington next year.
在佛罗里达州，民主党州长和联邦参议员候选人获得了近一半的全州选票，民主党还击退了在四个选区选出共和党人的努力——这四个选区是由州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯划定、旨在有利于共和党的。但明年佛罗里达州的联邦众议院代表团不会变得更“蓝”。得益于数十年的党派划图，共和党守住了他们 20 比 8 的众议院多数优势。
In Florida, the Democratic candidates for governor and US Senate captured nearly half of the statewide vote and Democrats fended off efforts to elect Republicans in four districts that Governor Ron DeSantis designed to benefit Republicans. But the Florida delegation won’t look any bluer next year. Thanks to decades of partisan map-making, Republicans held on to their 20-8 House majority.
这是一种任何政党都想利用的权力，尤其是当它们认为对手正从中获益时。例如，本轮周期我们还看到加利福尼亚等州以新的选区地图回应共和党的杰利蝾螈划区。重新划分选区的斗争恐怕还没有结束。
That’s a power that’s tempting for any party to exploit, especially when they think their rival is benefiting from it. This cycle, for instance, we also saw states like California respond to the GOP’s gerrymanders with new maps of their own. And we probably haven’t seen the end of the redistricting wars.
在未来两个月里，共和党控制的得克萨斯州、密西西比州、阿拉巴马州、南卡罗来纳州和路易斯安那州的“跛脚鸭”议会，可能会决定在 2028 年之前再次重新校准其国会选区地图。
For the next two months, lame-duck legislatures in the Republican-controlled states of Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina and Louisiana could decide they need to recalibrate their congressional maps one more time before 2028.
主张联邦重新划分选区改革的全国民主党重新划分选区委员会主席约翰·比索尼亚诺表示，由民主党执政的州将密切关注，并准备以牙还牙。
States run by Democrats will be watching and ready to respond in kind, said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which advocates for federal redistricting reform.
民主党现在拥有更多进攻火力，但应竭尽全力避免引燃另一场重新划分选区战争。上一场战争持续了 18 个月，耗费纳税人数百万美元的法律费用和选举修订成本，并且——对铁杆党派分子来说或许最重要——以一场史诗级的失败告终。
Democrats now have more firepower to go on the offensive, but they should do everything they can to resist igniting another redistricting war. The last one stretched on for 18 months, cost taxpayers millions of dollars in legal fees and election revisions and — perhaps most important to die-hard partisans — resulted in an epic failure.
共和党拆分了数十年来赋予黑人选民发声权的选区；结果选民对此并不满意。首先，他们在民主党人角逐这些席位的初选中以空前的数量现身投票，随后又在大选中再次踊跃投票。比索尼亚诺解释说，共和党无意中找到了一种让有色人种低频次投票者走向投票站的方式：“一群被剥夺选举权的人意识到自己有能力开创自己的未来，并为此采取了行动。”
Republicans dismantled districts that had given voice to Black voters for decades; it turns out voters weren’t happy about that. First, they showed up in unprecedented numbers in primary races for the Democrats in those seats, and then they showed up again in the general election. Republicans had inadvertently found a way to bring infrequent voters of color to the polls, Bisognano explained: “A group of people that had been disenfranchised realized their own ability to carve their own future and they engaged in it.”
待计票结束，共和党将失去几乎所有新划定的杰利蝾螈选区，并被迫将资源从保卫现任议员的竞选中抽离。他们错误地假设唐纳德·特朗普总统在2024年建立的联盟会保持不变。他们以为能在南部15个选区将蓝席变红，结果非但没能翻盘，反而遭遇惨败。这是一个两党都应引以为戒的教训。
When the counting is over, Republicans will have lost nearly all their newly gerrymandered seats and diverted resources away from defending their incumbents. They wrongly assumed the coalition President Donald Trump built in 2024 would hold. They thought they could turn blue seats red in 15 districts across the South, but instead of flips, they got flops. That’s a cautionary tale both parties should remember.
比索尼亚诺对我说：“我希望各州事后能照照镜子，决定作弊、重划选区和杰利蝾螈式划区不是前进的道路。”
“My hope is that states take a look in the mirror after this and decide that cheating and redrawing their maps and gerrymandering is not the path forward,” Bisognano told me.
更好的做法是即将上任的民主党控制的国会通过《投票自由法案》，这将大幅限制党派杰利蝾螈式划区。该法案在2022年众议院上次由民主党控制时已获通过，但因共和党主导的参议院阻挠议事而受阻。民主党应再次推动通过。如果共和党再次阻挠或特朗普行使否决权，民主党将迫使共和党在记录上留下立场。
A better approach is for the incoming Democratic Congress to pass the Freedom to Vote Act, which would significantly limit partisan gerrymandering. It passed the House of Representatives in 2022, when the chamber was last controlled by Democrats, but was blocked by a Republican-led filibuster in the Senate. Democrats should pass it again. If Republicans filibuster it or Trump vetoes it, Democrats will have forced Republicans to go on the record.
至少有一位共和党州长意识到，尽管为2028年大选人为设计结果极具诱惑力，但他不会这么做。佐治亚州州长布赖恩·坎普周三排除了召集立法者召开跛脚鸭重划选区特别会议的可能性。“我们州的选民已经表达了意愿，”他说。
At least one Republican governor has realized that as enticing as it is to use try to engineer an outcome for 2028, he’s not going to do it. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp on Wednesday ruled out calling legislators into a lame-duck redistricting session. “The voters of our state have spoken,” he said.
这是一种值得赞扬的情怀，但它遗漏了一些东西。佐治亚州的选区划分已经经过杰利蝾螈式划分，有利于共和党。在选区划分能够公平代表整个州之前，只有部分选民拥有发言权。
That’s a laudable sentiment, although it leaves something out. Georgia’s maps are already gerrymandered for Republican advantage. Until the maps fairly represent the entire state, only some voters have a voice.