对英国和英国央行来说，美国与伊朗战争结束的乐观情绪来得太晚了。
For Britain and the Bank of England, the surge in optimism about an end to the US’s war with Iran war didn’t come soon enough.
英国央行周四屈服于市场压力，进行了三年多来的首次加息。此举表明，英国央行行长安德鲁•贝利和货币政策委员会的其他成员都承认，无论唐纳德•特朗普在政策方向上做出什么改变，都需要采取行动，以应对明年通胀率将接近5%的威胁。
The British central bank gave into market pressure on Thursday and raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The move was a recognition by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee that action was needed to combat the threat of inflation approaching 5% next year, regardless of any change in policy direction by President Donald Trump.
英国央行此前一直推迟加息——尽管美联储和欧洲央行都在推进加息——部分原因是英国对家庭能源账单的季度上限推迟了冲击。现在，这笔成本即将到期，1月份的上限将飙升约25%，其他价格压力也在经济中积聚。
The BOE had held off raising rates, even as the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank pressed ahead, in part because the UK’s quarterly cap on household energy bills delayed the hit. Now, that cost is coming due, with the cap set to surge by roughly 25% in January, and other price pressures are building up in the economy.
这意味着，最近能源价格的下跌——部分原因是人们希望民主党控制的国会将约束这位共和党总统的手脚——还不够。周四，贝利多次提到“过去48小时内的事态发展”，认为这可能会减轻英国人以后的痛苦，但对现在没有帮助。
That meant a recent fall in energy prices driven in part by hopes that a Democratic-controlled Congress would restrain the Republican president’s hand was not enough. On Thursday, Bailey repeatedly referenced the “developments in the last 48 hours” as something that could mitigate the pain for Britons later rather than help now.
贝利在英国央行宣布加息后对记者表示，如果特朗普采取行动缓和敌对行动，能源价格应该会“以更快的速度和更陡的斜率下跌”。“能做的最好的事情就是处理这场冲突，从而限制损害。”货币政策委员会所有九名成员都投票支持加息，凯瑟琳•曼恩呼吁加息0.5个百分点，其他成员支持加息0.25个百分点，使利率达到4%。微弱多数似乎准备在未来几个月内进行第二次加息。
If Trump moved to wind down hostilities, energy prices should “come down arguably faster and on a steeper slope,” Bailey told reporters after the BOE announcement. “The best thing that can be done is to deal with this conflict and thereby limit the damage.”All nine members of the MPC voted for higher rates, with Catherine Mann calling for a half-point jump as the rest backed a quarter-point hike to 4%. A slim majority appeared ready for a second increase in the coming months.
英国央行的决定表明，对伊朗的战争以及由此导致的霍尔木兹海峡关闭，如何颠覆了全球各地的政治和经济政策，尤其是在依赖天然气的欧洲盟友当中。在特朗普于2月发动冲突之前，针线街上的争论是英国央行还能再降息多少次。
The BOE’s decision illustrated how the war against Iran and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz has upended politics and economic policy around the globe, particularly among European allies reliant on natural gas. Before Trump launched the conflict in February, the debate on Threadneedle Street was how many more cuts the bank could do.
如今的问题则是，能源市场的状况能否改善到足以防止12月或明年2月再次加息。周四收盘时，市场定价反映出的预期是，到明年年底前几乎会有三次加息。
Now, the question is whether conditions in energy markets improve enough to prevent a second hike in December or February. Markets ended Thursday pricing in almost three moves by the end of next year.
“利率何时再次上升的最重要决定因素，是中东冲突的进展，”ITEM Club首席经济顾问马特·斯旺内尔表示。“只有出现重大改善，才能阻止利率从这里继续走高。”
“The most important determinant of when interest rates will rise again is developments in the conflict in the Middle East,” said Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser to the ITEM Club. “Only a significant improvement can stop rates heading higher from here.”
能源冲击的风险，是英国政府拒绝美国要求其参与对伊朗打击的原因之一，这也招致特朗普的反复斥责。美国大选之后，英国首相安迪·伯纳姆呼吁启动“和平进程”，他周四对《经济学人》表示，中期选举给了特朗普“一个机会，让他重新聚焦于各地所有人都在苦苦挣扎的问题，那就是生活成本。”这些成本已经被冲突推高。以截至10月27日的15天市场价格计算，布伦特原油比英国央行7月的预测贵了38%。天然气价格则高出81%。
The risk of an energy shock was one reason why the British government resisted American requests to join in on strikes against Iran, drawing repeated rebukes from Trump. In the wake of the US elections, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham called for a “peace process,” telling the Economist on Thursday that the midterms presented Trump with “an opportunity to refocus around the issue that everyone everywhere is struggling with, and that’s cost of living.”Those costs are already being pushed up by the conflict. Using market prices for the 15 days to Oct. 27, Brent crude oil was 38% more expensive than in the BOE’s July forecast. Natural gas prices were 81% higher.
当受监管的价格上限在1月重新设定时，家庭能源账单几乎可以肯定会出现两位数的上涨。综合来看，这将把通胀推高至接近5%，远高于英国央行2%的目标及其7月对3.2%峰值通胀的估计。
Households are all-but guaranteed a double-digit increase in their household energy bills when the regulated cap resets in January. Put it together and that drives inflation close to 5%, well above both the BOE’s 2% target and its July estimate for 3.2% peak inflation.
贝利对记者表示，“即使我们知道过去48小时会发生什么”，货币政策委员会的决定也会是一样的。这是因为“我们手头已有的能源成本所带来的通胀压力”。
The MPC decision would have been the same “had we known what was going to happen in the last 48 hours,” Bailey told reporters. That’s due to “the inflationary pressure that we’ve got in the pipeline” from pre-existing energy costs.
尽管本周能源价格已下跌约15%，但即便价格维持在当前水平，消费者也要数月之后才能感受到。据彭博经济研究，4月下一次调整价格上限时，家庭将免受冲击，但成本不会下降。
While energy prices have fallen around 15% this week, it will be months before consumers to feel it, even if prices remain at current levels. Households will be spared an when the cap is next revised in April, but costs won’t come down, according to Bloomberg Economics.
整体经济被证明比预想更具韧性。英国央行将今年的GDP增长预测从1.1%上调至1.6%，并将2027年的增长预测从1.1%上调至1.3%。就业市场强于预期。而且，如果企业和工人通过提高价格或要求加薪来转嫁成本，贝利和其他英国央行政策制定者仍然担心所谓的第二轮效应。
The overall economy has proved more resilient than thought. The BOE upgraded GDP growth this year to 1.6% from 1.1% and to 1.3% from 1.1% in 2027. The jobs market has been stronger than expected. And Bailey and other BOE policymakers remain concerned about so-called second-round effects if businesses and workers pass on costs in higher prices or demands for better pay.
全球供应链是另一个问题。“裂解价差”——精炼石油产品与原油价格之间的差额——仍然居高不下，因为中东的轰炸破坏了炼油能力。运输成本很高。
Global supply chains are another problem. “Crack spreads” — the difference between refined petroleum product and crude oil prices — are still elevated because refining capacity has been damaged by bombs in the Middle East. Shipping costs are high.
在英国，企业对能源成本进行了对冲，或签订了固定价格合同。英国央行在货币政策报告中表示，随着这些合同到期，“能源价格上涨对企业成本的影响预计将变得更加广泛”。
In the UK, companies hedged their energy costs or agreed fixed-price contracts. As those expire, “the impact of higher energy prices on firms’ costs is expected to become more widespread,” the BOE said in its Monetary Policy Report.
“企业正在非常努力地控制成本，将压力吸收到利润率中，”副行长克莱尔·隆巴代利表示。“但这样做是有限度的。”综合来看，这些迹象表明，即使和平进程今天就开始，中东冲突造成的损害也要到2027年底才能消除。与英国零售价格指数挂钩的市场掉期表明，通胀压力应会从9月份3.9%的水平继续上升，并在5月份达到5.5%的峰值。这些压力将在明年下半年直至2028年期间开始缓解。贝利表示，如果前景没有显著改善，可能需要再次加息。
“Firms are working really hard to control costs, taking pressures into their margins,” Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said. “There’ll be limits to how far that can go on.”Together, the signs point to the damage from the Middle East conflict not being undone until late 2027, even if a peace process were to begin today. Market swaps tied to the UK retail prices index of inflation indicate pressures should continue to increase from September’s print of 3.9%, peaking at 5.5% in May. Those pressures start to ease through the second half of next year and in to 2028. Bailey said another hike might be needed without a dramatic improvement in the outlook.
“假设能源价格大致维持在原来的水平，”他告诉彭博电视的Francine Lacqua。“那么恐怕我认为第二次上升的可能性更大。”
“Let’s say we have energy prices sort of where they were,” he told Bloomberg TV’s Francine Lacqua. “Then I’m afraid I think the second rise is probably more likely than not.”