
利率三年多来首次上调,英格兰银行发出信号:除非美伊战争得到解决,否则进一步加息的可能性很大。
Interest rates have risen for the first time in more than three years and the Bank of England has signalled a further increase is likely unless the US-Iran war is resolved.
为遏制主要由冲突对全球油价影响所驱动的通胀,利率从3.75%上调至4%。
Rates rose to 4% from 3.75% in a bid to curb inflation mainly driven by the conflict's impact on global oil prices.
英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利表示,这一决定“不应被视为一系列不可避免的加息之首”,但警告称,“除非中东冲突得到解决,否则这似乎也不太可能是最后一次加息”。
Andrew Bailey, the Bank's governor, said the decision "shouldn't be seen as the first in an inevitable long sequence of hikes", but warned "unless the conflict in the Middle East is resolved, neither does it seem likely to be the last increase".
更高的利率水平将增加抵押贷款、贷款和信用卡等借贷成本,但也会带来更高的储蓄回报。
The higher level will increase the cost of borrowing for things such as mortgages, loans and credit cards, but will also lead to higher returns on savings.
英格兰银行的利率制定委员会全体成员均支持加息,九名成员中有八名投票赞成将利率上调至4%。一名成员主张更大幅度加息至4.25%。
The Bank's rate-setting committee all backed increasing interest rates, with eight out of nine voting in favour of the rise to 4%. One member wanted an even bigger increase to 4.25%.
贝利表示,加息因能源价格上涨而必要,并指出中东局势发展是未来决策的主要因素。
Bailey said the hike was warranted due to higher energy prices and pointed to what happens in the Middle East as the main factor in future decisions.
行长说:“简单来说,这需要在解决中东冲突方面取得实质性进展。”
"Put simply, it requires real progress towards settling the conflict in the Middle East," the governor said.
贝利称他“能理解”进一步加息的理由,随后将采取“更有条件的方法”,视未来几个月能源价格和通胀走势而定。然而,利率制定委员会成员对前路看法不一。
Bailey said he could "see the argument" for a further rate hike, before taking a "more conditional approach" dependent on the path of energy prices and inflation in the coming months. However, the views of members on the rate-setting committee differed on the path forward.
克莱尔·隆巴德利同意“近期很可能有理由进一步加息”,而梅根·格林进一步表示,视通胀如何影响工资、物价和就业市场,“额外加息”可能很有可能。
Clare Lombardelli agreed there was "likely to be a case for a further increase in rates in the near term", while Megan Greene went further, suggesting "additional hikes" might be likely depending on how inflation impacted wages, prices and the jobs market.
不过,艾伦·泰勒称此次加息是“风险管理式的‘暂时一次性’保险性加息”。
However, Alan Taylor said the rate rise was a "a risk-management 'one-for-now' insurance hike".

通胀衡量的是物价随时间上涨的速度,虽远低于几年前的峰值,但仍高于英格兰银行2%的目标,且预计明年将进一步上升。
Inflation, which measures the pace of price rises over time, is well below its peak of a few years ago but remains above the Bank of England's 2% target and is expected to increase further next year.
截至2026年9月的一年里,物价上涨了3.5%,主要是由于燃料价格上涨。数百万家庭也将在1月面临能源账单上涨的冲击。
Prices rose 3.5% in the year to September 2026 largely due to higher fuel prices. Millions of households are also set to be hit by energy bill increases in January.
燃料价格上涨可能导致大量商品和主食价格上涨,因为企业将更高的成本转嫁给客户。
Higher fuel prices can lead to prices rising for a host of goods and staples as businesses pass on higher costs to customers.
但央行表示,目前“有限的证据”显示这种情况已发生在食品等商品上,一些企业吸收了成本增加,接受了较低的利润率。
But the Bank said there was "limited evidence" this had happened so far for goods, such as food, with some firms absorbing cost increases and accepting lower margins.
在接受BBC采访时,贝利为加息决定进行了辩护,尽管央行评估通胀尚未蔓延到经济的其他领域。
In an interview with the BBC, Bailey defended the decision to raise rates despite the Bank's assessment that inflation was yet to spread to other parts of the economy.
他说,能源价格的进一步上涨正给通胀带来上行压力,“这正是我们必须设法抑制的”。
He said further increases in energy prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and "that's what we have to seek to lean against".

来自布莱顿的帕特里克·布赖森即将面临其3.51%利率的五年期抵押贷款期限结束。
Patrick Bryson, from Brighton, is set to see his five-year mortgage term with a 3.51% interest rate end soon.
这位51岁男子能找到的最优惠方案是汇丰银行5.17%的贷款,这意味着从2月起,他的月供将从1420英镑跃升至1680英镑。
The best deal the 51-year-old can find is a 5.17% loan with HSBC, which means his repayments will jump from £1,420 to £1,680 a month from February.
“让我对抵押贷款感到恼火的唯一一点是,偿还了五年后,我们现在付出的比以前更多了,”这位三个孩子的父亲说。“这有点像是一记耳光。”这位吉他教师表示,他和管理养老院的妻子年总收入约6.8万英镑,两人感到财务压力,因此改变了购物习惯,并寻求减少订阅支出。
"The only thing that bugs me about the mortgage is that after five years of paying it off we are now paying more than we were before," said the father-of-three. "That's a bit of a slap in the face." The guitar teacher, who has a combined income of around £68,000 a year with his wife, who manages a care home, said the couple is feeling pressure on their finances and so have changed their shopping habits and are looking to reduce their subcription outgoings.
“过去一年里我戒了酒,我们不再经常外出就餐,也彻底断了外卖。价格简直离谱,”他说。
"Over the last year I have stopped buying wine, we don't go out to eat much anymore, we have knocked takeaways on the head. The prices are ridiculous," he said.
央行现在预计通胀将在明年中期达到4.9%的峰值,高于此前的预估,且要到2028年才会回落至2%。
The Bank now expects inflation to peak at 4.9% in the middle of next year, higher than it originally estimated, and not return to 2% until 2028.
但央行指出,在一个“不利情景”下,如果美伊战争进一步升级并推高油价,通胀在2027年可能达到6.2%。
But in an "adverse scenario", where the US-Iran war could escalate further and send oil prices higher, inflation could reach 6.2% in 2027, it suggested.
尽管英国无法控制全球能源价格,但英格兰银行还是加息了,这是自2023年8月以来的首次加息,目的是限制高能源价格引发全面通胀上涨的连锁效应。
While the UK cannot control global energy prices, the Bank raised rates, for the first time since August 2023, in order to limit the knock-on effects of high energy prices resulting in inflation going up across the board.
其基准利率是指向其他银行和建筑协会借贷资金时收取的利率,这会影响客户申请抵押贷款、贷款、信用卡所面临的利率,以及储蓄利率。
Its base rate is what it charges other banks and building societies to borrow money, which influences what customers for mortgages, loans, credit cards get charged, as well as savings rates.
据银行业贸易机构英国金融协会称,此次加息将导致51万名追踪利率抵押贷款持有者的月供增加31英镑。
The rate rise will see 510,000 tracker mortgage-holders see a £31 monthly jump in repayments, according to banking trade body UK Finance.
固定利率产品的房主不会受到影响,但未来的产品可能会受到影响。
Homeowners on fixed deals will see no change, though future products may be affected.

不过,浮动利率产品的持有者将受到影响,具体取决于其贷款机构对加息的反应。通常情况下,利率上升0.25个百分点意味着月供增加14英镑。
However, people on variable deals will be impacted depending on how their lender reacts to the rate rise. Typically a 0.25pp rise means a £14 increase per month in repayments.