
在唐纳德·特朗普留给民主党的诸多“中选礼包”之中,有一项是让他们在人工智能(AI)反弹浪潮中独享政治话语权。如今民主党已果断赢得国会控制权,选民将期待他们兑现竞选承诺。问题在于,民主党其实并没有一套监管AI的计划。事实上,他们甚至在首要解决什么问题上都意见不一。
By Rogé Karma Among the many gifts that Donald Trump bequeathed to Democrats ahead of the midterms was allowing them the exclusive political use of the AI backlash. Now that Democrats have decisively won control of Congress, voters will expect them to follow through on their rhetoric. The problem is that Democrats don’t actually have a plan to regulate AI. In fact, they don’t even agree on what problems need to be solved in the first place.
直到最近,联邦层面的AI立法在2029年之前似乎根本不可能。特朗普一贯反对任何形式的AI监管,甚至施压国会抢先立法以取代州法律。尽管部分共和党议员对AI监管表现出更多同情,但几乎没人敢违抗党魁。在特朗普第二任期提出的约150项聚焦AI的法案中,最终通过的只有一项——将非自愿发布性爱影像(包括AI生成的此类影像)定罪的法案。
Until recently, federal AI legislation seemed impossible until 2029 at the earliest. Trump has consistently opposed any form of AI regulation, going so far as to pressure Congress to preempt state laws. Although some Republican lawmakers have seemed more sympathetic to AI regulation, almost none would dare defy their party’s leader. Of the roughly 150 AI-focused bills that have been proposed during Trump’s second term, only one—a bill that criminalized the nonconsensual posting of sexual images, including AI-generated ones—ultimately passed.
周二晚令人震惊的选举结果,让AI监管成为更现实的可能。民主党在众议院拥有巨大多数,轻松通过AI法案不在话下;凭借在参议院出人意料的大幅多数,他们只需争取少数共和党议员即可凑齐打破阻挠议事所需的60票。在选民用惨痛教训明确表明特朗普在该问题上站错队后,共和党议员跟随民主党投票支持AI监管的可能性大增。总统否决权的威胁依然存在,但作为跛脚鸭总统,他或许不再像过去那样在意拖累AI驱动的股市繁荣所带来的风险。
Tuesday night’s astonishing results have made AI regulation a much more realistic possibility. Democrats could easily pass an AI bill through the House of Representatives, where they will have a huge majority. And with their surprisingly large Senate majority, they would need only a handful of Republicans to get to a filibuster-proof 60 votes. Republicans could be far more likely to vote with Democrats on AI following an electoral shellacking in which voters made abundantly clear that Trump was on the wrong side of the issue. The threat of a veto remains, but as a lame duck, the president might not care as much as he used to about the risk of slowing down the AI-driven stock-market boom.
因此,民主党人或许能在人工智能问题上有所作为。但他们似乎并不清楚该做什么。即使是在从政治角度看最明显需要解决的那个与人工智能相关的问题——数据中心——上,情况也是如此。选民们绝大多数反对在自家社区建设数据中心。包括得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科、密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德、俄亥俄州的谢罗德·布朗和南卡罗来纳州的安妮·安德鲁斯在内的多位候选人,都将反对数据中心作为竞选的核心主张。
So Democrats might be able to get something done about AI. They just don’t seem to know what that something should be. This is true even when it comes to the one AI-related issue that, politically speaking, most obviously needs to be addressed: data centers. Voters are overwhelmingly opposed to the construction of data centers in their communities. Several candidates, including James Talarico in Texas, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Annie Andrews in South Carolina, placed their opposition to data centers at the core of their campaign.
但对于数据中心的准确问题是什么以及应该采取什么措施,各方意见分歧很大。一些政界人士关注不断上涨的电费,提议让数据中心自行承担发电和电网升级的费用。一些人抓住许多数据中心交易都是秘密进行这一点,认为这些交易应接受地方审批。还有人提议取消数据中心的税收减免。少数候选人,如现任得克萨斯州当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨和安德鲁斯,则主张全面暂停数据中心建设。这些提议在暂停期限和解除条件上差别很大。
But opinions differ widely about what the precise problem with data centers is and what ought to be done about them. Some politicians focused on rising power bills and proposed making data centers pay for their own electricity generation and grid upgrades. Some seized on the fact that many data-center deals are done in secret, and argued that they should be subject to local approval. And others proposed getting rid of data-center tax breaks. A few candidates, such as Gina Hinojosa, now Texas’s governor-elect, and Andrews, campaigned on a full data-center moratoriums. These proposals varied widely in how long they would last and under what conditions they would be lifted.
即便民主党人就数据中心问题达成了共识,联邦立法也不一定是实现其目标的正确途径。大多数民主党人已将这一问题视为州和地方层面的事务。这或许解释了为什么参议员伯尼·桑德斯提出的联邦层面禁止数据中心的提案在参议院没有任何共同提案人。
Even if Democrats did agree on what to do about data centers, federal legislation wouldn’t necessarily be the right way to achieve their goals. Most Democrats have cast the issue as a state and local one. This might explain why Senator Bernie Sanders’s proposal for a federal data-center ban attracted zero co-sponsors in the Senate.
超出数据中心的范围,问题变得更加棘手。首先,党内并没有对哪些 AI 方面需要监管形成统一看法。有些人担心自动化可能导致大规模失业,另一些人则担心 AI 深度伪造或儿童对聊天机器人伴侣产生过度依赖。对于如何应对这些担忧,党内存在相当大的分歧。
Beyond data centers, the questions get harder still. For starters, the party doesn’t have one shared view of what aspects of AI need to be regulated. Some are worried about the possibility of mass job losses caused by automation, others about AI deepfakes or children becoming overly attached to chatbot companions. Considerable disagreement exists over how to address each of these concerns.
以“AI 安全”为例——这是一系列恐惧,从流氓 AI 代理发动网络攻击到超级智能系统消灭全人类的可能性。许多民主党人认为必须采取措施防止 AI 在现实世界引发问题。但对如何实现这一目标的设想各不相同,而且每种方案都有其缺陷。
Take “AI safety”—the set of fears that ranges from rogue AI agents carrying out cyberattacks to the possibility of superintelligent systems wiping out all of humanity. Many Democrats believe that needs to be done to prevent AI from causing problems in the real world. But the ideas for how to do this are all over the place, and each has its own drawbacks.
一种思路是确保 AI 公司在其模型造成伤害时能够承担法律责任。但责任追究只能在损害已经发生后才起作用。正如美国法律与 AI 研究所高级政策主任查理·布洛克对我所说的:“如果我们都死了,就没人能起诉。”另一种想法是要求公司构建一个“终止开关”,在联邦政府指令下关闭其模型。然而,在损害发生之前判断模型是否正在以危险方式运行是困难的。
One school of thought focuses on making sure that AI companies can be held legally responsible if and when their models cause harm. But liability is a fix that occurs only after the damage has already been done. As Charlie Bullock, the senior policy director for the Institute for Law and AI, put it to me, “No one can sue if we’re all dead.”Another idea is to require companies to build a “kill switch” that would shut their models down at the federal government’s command. But knowing whether a model is acting in dangerous ways before the damage occurs is difficult.
今年早些时候,一批流氓 AI 代理入侵了 Hugging Face 公司以及 OpenAI 的内部服务器,公司的员工甚至联邦政府都未能在攻击发生后及时发现。换言之,当有人想到使用终止开关时,可能已经为时已晚。
Earlier this year, a group of rogue AI agents hacked into the company Hugging Face as well as OpenAI’s own internal servers without anyone at the company, let alone anyone in the federal government, realizing what had happened until well after the attacks had occurred. In other words, by the time someone thinks to reach for the kill switch, it may be too late.
近期,要求AI公司接受安全审计的两党势头不断增强,审计将由一个新的联邦机构或经批准的第三方组织管理。这将使政府能在AI模型部署前更早、更深入地了解其安全性。但即便如此,要确切知道一个模型在现实世界中会如何表现仍是不可能的。随着AI模型越来越先进,它们已开始表现出能意识到自己何时正在被测试、何时没有。
Recently, bipartisan momentum has been building to require AI companies to submit to safety audits, managed by either a new federal agency or approved third-party organizations. This would give the government earlier and deeper insight into the safety of AI models before they’re deployed. But even then, knowing exactly how a model is going to behave in the real world is impossible. As AI models have gotten more and more advanced, they have begun to demonstrate awareness of when they are and aren’t being tested.
这引出了又一个想法:把一切慢下来。这种思路认为,如果AI模型变得过于聪明而难以控制,那么科技公司至少应暂停开发,直到它们知道如何妥善管理这些模型。这或许是防范超级智能失控AI风险的最佳方式。但它带来了一系列新的、艰难的取舍。首先是地缘政治层面的:美国决定限制本国产业的发展,并不意味着其他国家——尤其是中国——也会这样做。
This leads to yet another idea: Slow it all down. If AI models are getting too smart to control, the thinking goes, then technology companies should pause their development at least until they know how to properly manage them. This is probably the best way to protect against the possibility of a superintelligent rogue AI. But it raises a set of new, difficult trade-offs. The first is geopolitical: Just because the United States decides to throttle its own industry doesn’t mean other countries, particularly China, will do the same.
在这种情况下,AI不受约束发展所带来的危险依然存在,而美国的主要地缘政治对手将掌控世界上最强大的新技术。第二个则更为直接地属于政治层面:强制放缓可能导致股市回调,从而激怒选民。事实上,标普500指数今天下跌了4.3%,部分原因正是人们担心民主党人会兑现其放缓数据中心建设的承诺。
In such a situation, the dangers of unchecked AI progress would still exist, and America’s main geopolitical rival would control the world’s most powerful new technology. The second is more straightforwardly political: A forced slowdown could cause a stock-market correction, angering voters. Indeed, the S&P 500 fell 4.3 percent today, in part over fears that Democrats will follow through on promises to slow the data-center build-out.
从竞选口号走向明智的立法,将需要应对治理一项新技术所面临的艰难取舍。抨击大型科技公司和数据中心很容易。想清楚该如何应对它们则要难得多。但中期选举的一个明确教训是,选民对那些甚至不去尝试兑现其核心承诺的政客几乎没有耐心。民主党人最好不要重蹈那个刚刚帮助他们赢得选举的错误。
Going from campaign slogans to sensible legislation will require dealing with the hard trade-offs of governing a new technology. Railing against Big Tech and data centers is easy. Figuring out what to do about them is much harder. But one clear lesson from the midterms is that voters have little patience for politicians who don’t even try to deliver on their core promises. Democrats would be wise not to make the same mistake that just helped get them elected.