波兰面临自2022年以来首次加息，两位政策制定者表示，预计数月内将收紧货币政策，甚至可能在12月。
Poland faces its first interest-rate increase since 2022, with two policymakers saying that tightening is expected within months, possibly even in December.
货币政策委员会成员亨利克·沃诺罗夫斯基和马尔钦·扎热茨基的言论证实了波兰日益鹰派的立场。此前欧元区和邻国捷克共和国已加息，欧洲国家正努力抵消中东战争推高能源价格带来的影响。
The comments by Monetary Policy Council members Henryk Wnorowski and Marcin Zarzecki confirm Poland’s increasingly hawkish approach. The outlook follows rate hikes in the euro region and in the neighboring Czech Republic as European nations struggle to offset the impact of higher energy prices stoked by war in the Middle East.
央行行长亚当·格拉平斯基本周表示，3.75%的基准利率有可能在2027年初上调。沃诺罗夫斯基和扎热茨基在接受采访时表示，加息可能会更早发生——在12月——以防止燃料价格上涨引发的第二轮效应。
Central bank Governor Adam Glapinski signaled this week that an increase in the 3.75% benchmark was likely in early 2027. Wnorowski and Zarzecki said in interviews that a hike could take place earlier — in December — to prevent second-round effects from higher fuel prices.
“除了大宗商品价格的不确定性，我们正逐渐失去那些迄今帮助我们对抗通胀的因素，例如食品价格和强劲的兹罗提。”沃诺罗夫斯基说，“根据11月的预测，12月加息的可能性很大，1月加息的可能性很高。”扎热茨基则单独表示，明年初加息的可能性“已大幅增加”。他不排除下月收紧货币政策。
“In addition to uncertainty surrounding commodity prices, we are slowly running out of the factors that have so far helped us combat inflation, such as food prices and a strong zloty,” Wnorowski said. “Based on November projections, the likelihood of interest rate hikes in December is significant and in January it is high.”Separately, Zarzecki said the chances of a rate “hike early next year has increased significantly.”He’s not ruling out tightening next month.
尽管包括格拉平斯基在内的政策制定者曾表示，波兰很少在12月调整利率，但事实并非如此。货币政策委员会曾在2025年、2021年、2012年和2008年的最后一次月度会议上调整基准利率。
While policymakers, including Glapinski, have said that Poland rarely changes rates in December, that hasn’t been the case. The MPC amended its benchmark at its last monthly meeting in 2025, 2021, 2012 and 2008.
与其他能源进口国一样，波兰面临日益加剧的价格压力。10月通胀率为3.5%，处于政策制定者容忍区间的上限，即便政府重新引入了燃油价格上限。
Like other energy importers, Poland faces growing price pressures with inflation at 3.5% in October — the top end of the policymakers’ tolerance range — even after the government re-introduced caps on fuel prices.
根据央行最新预测，通胀预计将在明年上半年加速至4.6%，然后在2028年第三季度回落至货币政策委员会2.5%的目标。该预测预计政府燃油价格保护措施不会延续到2026年之后。
Inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.6% in the first half of next year before easing to the MPC’s 2.5% target in the third quarter of 2028, according to the central bank’s latest projections which don’t anticipate any extension of the government’s fuel-price shield beyond 2026.
Wnorowski表示，他对目前的兹罗提汇率水平并不担忧。他预计利率将在下个月或1月份上调25个基点。据Wnorowski透露，决策者本周“绝对没有谈论”开启紧缩周期。
Wnorowski said he isn’t worried about the current zloty level. He expects rates to be raised either next month or in January by 25 basis points. There was “absolutely no talk” among policymakers this week about starting a tightening cycle, according to Wnorowski.
截至周五中午，兹罗提兑欧元交易价格在4.396左右，较本周早些时候创下的三年低点4.4372有所反弹。尽管如此，波兰货币今年以来表现仍逊于大多数新兴市场同行，兑欧元贬值4.1%，兑美元贬值8.8%。
The zloty traded around 4.396 against the euro by midday Friday, rebounding from a three-year low of 4.4372 set earlier in the week. Still, the Polish currency has underperformed most emerging-market peers this year, weakening 4.1% to the euro and 8.8% versus the dollar.