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央行老将诺特和德科斯竞逐欧洲央行行长一职,接替拉加德Central banking veterans Knot and de Cos in race to replace Lagarde at ECB

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2024年2月6日,西班牙央行行长巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯·德科斯在塞浦路斯尼科西亚出席新闻发布会。路透社/扬尼斯·库尔托格鲁/资料图片Spain's Central Bank Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos attends a news conference in Nicosia, Cyprus February 6, 2024. REUTERS/Yiannis Kourtoglou/ File Photo

欧元区国家周五提名了两位中央银行资深人士,接替克里斯蒂娜·拉加德出任欧洲央行行长,两人均为经验丰富的危机应对者。

Euro zone nations nominated two central banking veterans on Friday to succeed Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank, both of them seasoned crisis-fighters.

西班牙提名国际清算银行总经理巴勃罗·埃尔南德斯·德科斯,荷兰提名其前央行行长克拉斯·诺特,接任欧洲最具影响力的金融职务,任期自2月开始。

Spain nominated Pablo Hernandez de Cos, the General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements, while the Netherlands nominated Klaas Knot, its former central bank chief, to take on Europe's most powerful financial role from February.

欧元集团主席基里亚科斯·皮埃拉卡基斯在声明中表示:“欧元集团将在11月9日的下次会议上审议这些候选人资格。”欧元集团代表欧元区财政部长。

"At its next meeting on November 9, the Eurogroup will take stock of these candidacies," said Kyriakos Pierrakakis, president of the Eurogroup, which represents the euro zone's finance ministers, in a statement.

尽管欧盟领导人可能还需要数周时间才能选定心仪候选人,但这些提名将释放出欧洲央行延续性的信号。两人均在制定利率的管委会任职多年,或与之关系密切,且职业生涯大多致力于中央银行事务。此次领导层更迭正值欧洲央行面临紧张时刻。

While it may still take weeks before EU leaders pick their favoured candidate, the nominations will send a signal of continuity at the ECB. Both men have served years on the rate-setting Governing Council, or close to it, and have spent most of their careers devoted to central banking. The leadership change comes at a tense moment for the ECB.

该行正在加息以对抗通胀,而债务可持续性担忧引发了欧洲央行最终可能被迫介入市场的前景,尤其是如果动荡蔓延至法国之外。

The bank is raising interest rates to combat inflation while debt sustainability concerns have raised the prospect that the ECB will be eventually forced into the market, especially if turbulence spreads beyond France.

随着总统大选临近,法国政府似乎不愿或无力为已经膨胀的预算采取痛苦的财政措施,一些人担心任何市场抛售都可能波及其他脆弱的债券市场。

With a presidential election looming, the French government appears unwilling or unable to take painful fiscal measures for an already bloated budget and some fear that any flight from the market could ripple through other vulnerable bond markets.

增加新行长挑战的是,欧洲央行还将在未来几个月失去另外两位关键执委会成员。

Adding to the new president's challenges, the ECB will also lose two other key board members in the coming months.

负责市场运作、可能被要求设计走出市场动荡之路的伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔将于1月3日离任。负责准备政策提案的首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩将于5月31日离任。

Isabel Schnabel, who heads market operations and may be called on to devise a way out of market turbulence, is leaving on January 3. Chief economist Philip Lane, who prepares policy proposals, exits on May 31.

欧洲央行观察人士预计,任一候选人均不会从根本上改变政策,至少在短期内不会。

ECB watchers do not expect either candidate to fundamentally alter policy, at least not in the near term.

“简单来说,克诺特被视为略微偏鹰派,而德科斯则略微偏鸽派,尽管我们不会过分夸大两人在政策上的差异,”杰富瑞的莫杜佩·阿德格本博表示。

"Simplistically, Knot is seen as slightly more hawkish and de Cos slightly more dovish, although we would not overplay the policy differences between the two," Modupe Adegbembo at Jefferies said.

“欧洲央行仍是一个以共识驱动的机构,而机构大于任何个人,因此我们不预期仅因行长更替就会实质性改变其反应函数,”阿德格本博补充道。

"The ECB remains a consensus-driven institution and the institution is bigger than any one individual, so we do not expect a change in president alone to materially alter the reaction function," Adegbembo added.

这场人事重组可能面临的一个障碍是欧洲央行显而易见的性别失衡。在27名管委会成员中,仅有两名女性——拉加德和施纳贝尔——且她们都将离任。

A potential hurdle in the reshuffle could be the glaring gender imbalance at the ECB. There are only two women -- Lagarde and Schnabel -- on the 27-member Governing Council and both of them are leaving.

消息人士透露,法国据称正考虑提名一名女性担任欧洲央行职务,但在一个仍由男性主导的领域,没有其他国家公开讨论过提名女性。欧洲议会无权否决提名,但过去曾因性别问题推迟过任命。

France is said to be considering a woman for an ECB role, sources close to the discussion said, but no other nation has publicly discussed picking a woman in a profession still dominated by men. The European Parliament cannot veto nominations but has delayed appointments in the past in protest over gender issues.

法国和德国对欧洲央行其他高层职位的偏好,可能在行长竞争中起决定性作用。

France's and Germany's preference for other top ECB jobs may prove to be decisive in the presidential race.

虽然从技术上讲任何国家都可提名执委会委员候选人,但最大的欧盟成员国实际上在执委会拥有永久席位。

While technically any nation can field candidates for the board, the largest EU members have a de facto permanent seat on the board.

经济学家表示,如果法国拿下首席经济学家职位,那么行长一职更有可能由克诺特担任,理由是欧洲央行必须在更偏鹰派和更偏鸽派的成员之间保持平衡。

If France secures the chief economist job, then the presidency is more likely to go to Knot on the grounds that the ECB must maintain a balance between more hawkish and dovish members, economists say.

如果德国提名首席经济学家——这一职位被广泛视为央行第二重要的角色——那么德科斯赢得行长职位的机会可能更大。

If Germany picks the chief economist, widely considered the second most important role at the bank, then de Cos may have a better chance of winning the presidency.

增加一层复杂性的是,选择克诺特将迫使荷兰人弗兰克·埃尔德森辞去执委会委员职务,因为惯例规定执委会不应有来自同一国家的两名成员。

Adding a layer of complication, choosing Knot would force Dutchman Frank Elderson to resign from the ECB board as custom dictates that there should never be two board members from the same nation.

这将意味着六名执委中有四人在短时间内更替。不过,这种局面将允许西班牙竞争埃尔德森的席位,前提是西班牙在行长竞选中落败。

This would then mean that four of six board members are replaced in quick succession. However, this constellation would allow Spain to contest Elderson's seat, if it fails in its presidential bid.

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