伦敦，11月6日：随着对AI交易的信心动摇，科技股遭遇溃败，这可能考验从纽约到台北的全球金融市场的韧性。
LONDON, Nov 6 : A rout in technology stocks as confidence in the AI trade falters could test the resilience of global financial markets from New York to Taipei.
科技股占比较重的纳斯达克100指数周五上涨近2%，收复了周四逾6%暴跌的部分失地——但交易员仍然处于紧张状态。
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose nearly 2 per cent on Friday, clawing back some of Thursday's more than 6 per cent plunge - but traders remain on edge.
政策制定者长期以来一直警告AI繁荣瓦解的风险。投资者和监管机构正密切关注市场压力指标，其中一些已闪烁黄色预警信号，尽管尚未亮起红色警报。以下是关键指标的表现情况：恐惧指数上升 华尔街的恐惧指标——衡量美国股市波动率的VIX指数——周四升至28以上，为3月下旬以来最高。周五该指数维持在接近该水平的位置。
Policymakers have long warned of the risks from an AI boom unraveling. Investors and regulators are keeping a close watch on market stress indicators, with some flashing amber, although not yet red. Here's a look at how key measures are faring: FEAR IS UP Wall Street's fear gauge, the VIX index of US stock market volatility, rose to over 28 on Thursday, its highest since late March. It was holding close to that level on Friday.
与2025年4月“解放日”后的市场飙升以及2024年8月的市场抛售相比，此次涨幅相对可控。尽管如此，VIX指数本周已飙升逾40%。欧洲同类指标周五升至5月以来最高水平。
The increase is relatively contained compared to the post-April 2025 "Liberation Day" market jump and the August 2024 market selloff. Still, the VIX has surged more than 40 per cent this week. The European equivalent hit its highest level since May on Friday.
“还处于早期阶段，”First Eagle Investments投资组合经理Idanna Appio表示，“我担心的是，如果我们看到波动率进一步飙升、压力进一步加大、进入市场的能力出现实质性问题。这些将是我将密切关注的情况。”
"It's still early days," said Idanna Appio, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments. "My concern would be if we see more spikes in volatility, more stress, real issues with the ability to access markets. Those will be the things that...I'll be watching."
防范科技震荡 或许AI领域潜在麻烦的最大先兆，是针对债务违约的保险保障成本激增。
PROTECTION FROM TECH TREMORS Perhaps the biggest harbinger of potential trouble in the AI space is a surge in insurance protection against a debt default.
新型云计算公司CoreWeave发行债务的保险成本已飙升至困境区域，五年期信用违约互换（CDS）价差飙升至1000个基点以上，创历史新高。这已成为投资者对AI焦虑情绪的一个晴雨表。SpaceX和英特尔的信用违约互换价差本周也大幅跳升。
The cost of insuring debt issued by neocloud firm CoreWeave has spiked into distressed territory, with five-year credit default swap (CDS) spreads surging past 1,000 basis points to record highs. It has become a barometer of investor anxiety over AI. Spreads on credit default swaps for SpaceX and Intel have also jumped this week.
投资者持有美国高收益企业信用（即垃圾债）所要求的风险溢价已升至“解放日”动荡以来的最高水平，因为交易员对风险资产降温。
The premium investors demand to hold US high yield corporate credit, known as junk bonds, has risen to its highest since the Liberation Day ructions as traders cool on riskier assets.
在市场风险最高的板块，即评级为CCC或更低的公司，该溢价交易水平处于2020年以来的最高位附近，据ICE BofA指数显示。
In the riskiest parts of the market, for companies rated CCC or lower, that premium is trading at around its highest since 2020, according to ICE BofA indices.
投资者寻求避险 避险情绪升温是市场焦虑加剧的明显信号，尽管每日波幅也相对温和。
INVESTORS SEEK SAFETY A flight to safe havens is a clear sign of increased market angst, although daily moves are also relatively modest.
美国10年期国债收益率已从上月触及的5%以上高点回落50个基点，此前市场担忧高债务、通胀上升以及科技企业加大债券发行导致的资金竞争。
US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen 50 bps from peaks above 5 per cent hit last month on concerns about high debt, rising inflation and competition for capital as tech firms ramped up bond sales.
货币市场相对平静，但也出现一些投资者寻求美元的迹象，截至周五格林威治时间1500，美元上涨0.6%。
Currency markets were relatively muted, but there were some signs of investors seeking the US dollar, which was up 0.6 per cent as of 1500 GMT on Friday.
三个月期欧元交叉货币基础掉期（即用外币兑换美元的相对溢价）周四一度触及-8个基点，为2023年底以来最低，显示对美元融资的需求增加。周五略有回升至-6个基点左右。
Three-month euro cross-currency basis swaps, or the relative premium for swapping foreign currencies into dollars, briefly touched -8 bps on Thursday, the lowest since late 2023, signaling increased demand for dollar funding. It had recovered slightly on Friday to around -6 bps.
BofA周五发布的“资金流向展望”报告称，截至周三当周，现金基金录得1400亿美元资金净流入，为有记录以来第七大单周流入规模。
BofA's Flow Show report on Friday said cash funds saw a $140 billion inflow in the week to Wednesday, the seventh biggest on record.
债券表现平稳 债券市场目前未显示出类似新冠疫情期间或“解放日”关税事件期间的那种压力迹象。
BONDS BEHAVE Bond markets are so far showing no signs of the sort of stress they came under during the COVID-19 pandemic or around the Liberation Day tariffs.
备受关注的MOVE指数（追踪美国国债市场波动率）10月触及六个月高点，此后有所回落。
The closely watched MOVE index, which tracks volatility in the US Treasury market, hit a six-month high in October but has since slipped back.
其他债券市场指标如美国掉期利差（可反映融资和流动性压力）也保持平稳。
Other bond-market measures such as US swap spreads, which can indicate funding and liquidity stress, have also remained calm.