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彭博社

民主党人掌控国会前,共和党还能做什么What Republicans Can Do Before Democrats Take Control of Congress

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美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于11月5日在白宫。来源:EPAPresident Donald Trump at the White House on Nov. 5. Source: EPA

民主党人正沉浸在中期选举胜利的喜悦中,而共和党人则在思考这场惨败的后果。但在共和党将立法权移交给民主党对手之前,两党都将返回华盛顿特区,进行为期近两个月的过渡期,即所谓的“跛脚鸭国会”。

Democrats are reveling in their victory in the midterm elections, while Republicans are pondering the consequences of a stunning defeat. But before Republicans turn over legislative power to their Democratic rivals, both parties will return to Washington, DC, for a nearly two-month transition period known as a lame-duck Congress.

“跛脚鸭会议”是指11月初联邦大选结束至次年1月3日新任和连任的众议院议员与参议员宣誓就职这段时间。其名称源于这样一种观念:当选官员在任期最后几天的影响力大幅下降。

The lame-duck session refers to the time between a federal election in early November and Jan. 3, when new and returning members of the House of Representatives and Senate are sworn in. Its name derives from the idea that elected officials’ influence is greatly diminished during their last days in power.

在“跛脚鸭”时期,现任国会议员应完成本届立法任期的立法事务。今年,数十名议员正处于任职的最后几周,要么是因为他们在最近的选举中失去席位,要么是因为他们选择不再竞选连任。

During the lame-duck period, members of the existing Congress are supposed to finish the legislative business of the current term. This year, scores of lawmakers are in their final weeks in office, either because they lost their seats in the latest election or because they chose not to run again.

2026年“跛脚鸭国会”备受关注,因为即将发生大规模权力移交。共和党目前以微弱优势控制着众议院和参议院;到1月3日,民主党将在众议院拥有绝对多数,并在参议院取得自巴拉克·奥巴马2009-2010年首个总统任期以来的最大领先优势。

The 2026 lame-duck Congress is of particular interest because of the vast transfer of power ahead. Republicans currently control the House and the Senate with slim majorities; come Jan. 3, Democrats will have a commanding majority in the House and their biggest lead in the Senate since the first presidential term of Barack Obama in 2009-2010.

国会共和党人和同属共和党的唐纳德·特朗普总统,可能将利用未来两个月作为最后机会,推动心仪立法通过,或推进司法和行政任命,因为一旦民主党掌握多数席位,这些行动将近乎不可能实现。

Congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump, a fellow Republican, could use the next two months as a last chance to push through favored legislation or advance judicial and administrative appointments before those actions become near-impossible under Democratic majorities.

共和党人很可能会利用其国会多数派地位的剩余天数,寻求通过保守派优先事项的立法。

Republicans likely will take advantage of the remaining days of their congressional majority by seeking to pass legislation on conservative priorities.

共和党人的议事日程很可能以一项国防开支授权法案为起点,并可能为伊朗战争提供更多资金。他们还预计将关注通过一项政府拨款法案——无论是全年拨款还是临时拨款——以避免在节假日期间引发政府停摆。目前的临时拨款措施将于12月11日到期。

The Republicans’ to-do list probably starts with a defense spending authorization bill, and possibly providing more funding for the Iran war. They also are expected to focus on passing a government funding bill, either for the full year or as a stopgap, to avert a government shutdown over the holidays. The current short-term spending measure expires on Dec. 11.

共和党人还预计寻求达成两党协议,加快能源项目的审批进程。其他优先事项包括恢复关键的情报权力以及农业项目的资金。

Republicans also are expected to seek a bipartisan deal to expedite permitting of energy projects. Other priorities include renewing key spy powers and funding for farm programs.

在政府执政满两年之际,一些内阁部长或其他官员离职是比较常见的情况。如果特朗普内阁将出现人事变动——据彭博社报道,国务卿马可·鲁比奥正在考虑离开本届政府,国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯的前景也一直是猜测的焦点——特朗普可能会希望加快推进其心仪人选在共和党多数参议院中的审议进程。

It is fairly common for some cabinet secretaries or other officials to depart an administration at the two-year mark. If there is going to be turnover in Trump’s cabinet — Secretary of State Marco Rubio is considering leaving the administration, Bloomberg News reported, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s future has been a topic of speculation — Trump might want to expedite having his preferred replacements considered by a friendly, Republican-majority Senate.

特朗普还可能寻求获得对其提名的法官人选的批准。截至11月初,特朗普提名的九名法官人选中已有九人在等待参议院司法委员会的审议,路透社报道,另有十三人已获委员会通过,等待参议院全体批准。

Trump also could seek to win approval of judges he has nominated. As of early November, nine of Trump’s judicial nominations were awaiting consideration by the Senate Judiciary Committee, Reuters reported, while 13 more have been cleared by the committee and were awaiting approval by the full Senate.

最高法院九名大法官中已有九人表示,将在民主党掌控国会之前采取一项不寻常的做法——退休。其中包括克拉伦斯·托马斯和塞缪尔·阿利托,他们是最高法院中最年长的两位法官,也是保守派多数的成员。

of the Supreme Court’s nine justices have indicated they would take the unusual step of retiring before Democrats take control. That includes Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, the two oldest judges and members of its conservative majority.

据美国国会研究服务局统计,上一次在跛脚鸭会期(lame-duck session)赢得最高法院大法官提名确认的是1925年的哈伦·菲斯克·斯通,当时选举后的过渡期一直持续到次年3月。(1933年,美国宪法第二十修正案缩短了跛脚鸭会期的时长。)参议院确认总统提名的大法官通常需要两个多月,不过在此次现任大法官艾米·科尼·巴雷特的案例中,共和党人仅用27天就完成了确认,在2020年总统大选前敲定了对她的任命。

According to the Congressional Research Service, the last Supreme Court justice to win confirmation during a lame-duck session was Harlan Fiske Stone in 1925, when the post-election transition stretched until March. (In 1933, the 20th Amendment to the US Constitution shortened the duration of the lame-duck period.) It typically takes more than two months for the Senate to confirm a president’s Supreme Court nominee, though in the case of current Justice Amy Coney Barrett, Republicans managed to get it done in 27 days, sealing her appointment before the 2020 presidential election.

官方而言,没有任何不同。跛脚鸭国会的权力与任何一届国会相同。但共和党领导层的未来如今充满变数,这可能使通过立法和推进其他优先事项变得困难。此外,共和党在中期选举中的失利,等于选民对该党政策的尖锐否定。共和党人或许不愿推进与民意相悖的立法目标,尽管他们在国会中仍保有权力。

Officially, none. A lame-duck Congress has the same power as any Congress. But the future of Republican leadership is now in flux, which can make passing legislation and carrying out other priorities difficult. In addition, Republicans’ midterm losses amounted to a sharp repudiation of the party’s policies by voters. Republicans might not want to pursue legislative goals that run counter to popular opinion, even though they technically retain power in Congress.

众议员史蒂夫·斯卡利斯。Representative Steve Scalise.

该党还可能被领导权之争占据精力。据彭博新闻社报道,众议院议长迈克·约翰逊已告知其幕僚,他不会在新一届国会中谋求领导职务,而众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯和众议院司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹都计划角逐少数党领袖一职。他们必须在多数党地位尚存的最后日子里争取众议院同僚的支持。尽管民主党人尚未掌权,但他们显然认为有底气反对共和党多数派的最后一搏。

The party also might be preoccupied by a leadership battle. House Speaker Mike Johnson has told his staff that he won’t seek a leadership role in the new Congress, Bloomberg News reported, while House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan both plan to seek the post of minority leader. They will have to cultivate support among their House peers in their waning days in the majority. And though Democrats aren’t yet in power, they are clearly feeling emboldened to oppose the Republican majority’s final push.

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