新西兰大选“难分胜负”，选民转向小党初步结果显示，右翼阵营略微领先，但尚无明确赢家，此次大选以经济担忧为主导。
New Zealand’s Election ‘Too Close to Call’ as Voters Turn to Minor Parties Preliminary results showed the right-wing bloc slightly ahead but no clear winner after an election that was dominated by economic concerns.
周六晚间，新西兰大选结果难分胜负，两大主要政党几乎势均力敌，而小党成为这场由经济停滞和政治不满主导的投票中的真正赢家。
New Zealand’s election results on Saturday night were too close to call, with the major parties almost neck and neck and minority parties emerging as the real winners in a vote dominated by economic sluggishness and political discontent.
根据选举委员会的数据，截至周六晚间，已统计超过99%的政党票，现任总理克里斯托弗·拉克斯领导的国家党（National Party，目前以保守联盟执政）和主要反对党中左翼工党（Labour Party）的得票率均约为29%。两党在投票前的民调均接近历史低点，显示出选民对它们带领国家走出困境的能力缺乏信心。
Both Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National Party, which is governing in a conservative coalition, and the main opposition, the center-left Labour Party, were at about 29 percent each, with more than 99 percent of the party vote counted on Saturday night, according to the Electoral Commission. Both parties were polling near historic lows before the vote, signaling a lack of faith in their ability to steer the nation out of its malaise.
初步结果显示，目前执政的国家党联盟获得67个席位，组阁仅需66席。但包括海外选票在内的数十万张特别票将在未来几天内统计，可能改变结果。这些选票历来倾向于左倾政党。
Preliminary results put the National Party’s coalition, which is currently in power, at 67 seats, with only 66 seats needed to form government. But hundreds of thousands of special votes, including those from overseas, will be counted in the coming days and could change the outcome. These votes have traditionally skewed toward left-leaning parties.
官方结果将于11月27日公布。根据新西兰的混合成员比例代表制，组阁谈判将依赖建立联盟，这些磋商可能持续数天或数周，甚至延续到明年。
The official result will not be released until Nov. 27. Negotiations for the formation of a government will rely on building a coalition under the country’s mixed-member, proportional electoral system. These discussions could take days or weeks and may even stretch into the new year.
但有一点已很明确：自2023年大选以来，小党支持率大幅上升。新崛起的中间派机会党（Opportunity Party）在周六晚间的初步政党票中获得约6%的得票率，有望首次进入议会（该党已参加过三次大选），并可能扮演“关键少数”角色。
But one thing was clear. Support for minor parties has surged since the 2023 election. The newly ascendant, centrist Opportunity Party could end up in the role of kingmaker after securing about 6 percent of the preliminary party vote on Saturday evening, which would allow it to enter Parliament for the first time after contesting three elections.
该党领袖是38岁的Qiulae Wong，她出生于斐济，曾任商业顾问。她表示，机会党愿意与两大主要政党中的任何一个合作组建政府。
The party’s leader is Qiulae Wong, 38, a Fiji-born former business consultant. She has said the Opportunity party would be willing to work with either of the major parties to form a government.
投票结束后不久，Wong女士表示，“看起来非常有可能”该党能够“今晚创造历史”。
Shortly after polls closed, Ms. Wong said it was “looking very likely” that the party could “make history tonight.”
“你们投出了团结而非分裂，”Wong女士对着一屋子欢呼鼓掌的支持者说道。“你们投票改变新西兰政治，一劳永逸。”其他小党也从寻求替代选择的选民那里获益。在政治右翼，自由意志主义的行动党（ACT Party）重获支持，获得10.9%的选票，民粹主义的新西兰优先党（New Zealand First Party）获得9.8%。在左翼，环保主义的绿党（Green Party）扩大了得票份额，达到13.3%，而毛利党（Te Pati Maori）以0.6%落后。
“You guys have voted for unity over division,” Ms. Wong told a room of cheering and clapping supporters. “You have voted to change New Zealand politics for good.”Other minor parties also benefited from a voting public looking for alternatives. On the political right, the libertarian ACT Party gained renewed support, receiving 10.9 percent of the vote, as did the populist New Zealand First Party, with 9.8 percent. On the left, the environmental Green Party expanded its share of votes, with 13.3 percent, while the Te Pati Maori party trailed at 0.6 percent.
周日凌晨，Luxon先生向支持者发表讲话。他没有宣布胜利，但表示，“从目前的数字来看，国家党再次成为议会最大党，令人振奋。”
In the early hours of Sunday morning, Mr. Luxon addressed his supporters. He did not claim victory but said, “It is heartening to see that, on the numbers so far, National is once again the largest party in Parliament.”
“但我必须现在就告诉你们，胜负难料。”周六，工党领袖Chris Hipkins向支持者发表讲话，既未宣布胜利也未认输。
“But I have to tell you right now, it is too close to call.”On Saturday, the leader of the Labour Party, Chris Hipkins, made a speech to his supporters that did not claim victory or concede.
“就今晚的形势而言，显然我们还要再过一段时间才能知道下届政府的确切组成，”他说。
“As things stand tonight, it’s clear that we’re not going to know the exact shape of our next government for a little while longer yet,” he said.
“但从今晚的结果来看，有几点是清楚的。我们的下届议会将要求我们所有人妥协、合作、寻求共同点，”Hipkins先生补充道。
“But there are some things that are clear from tonight’s results. Our next Parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together and to find common ground,” Mr. Hipkins added.
工党未排除与机会党或绿党组建联盟的可能性，但国家党已排除与这两个小党合作——尽管Luxon先生可能被迫重新考虑这一决定。
Labour has not ruled out forming a coalition with Opportunity or the Greens, but the National Party has ruled out working with either minor party — although Mr. Luxon may be forced to rethink his decision.
无论最终由谁组建政府，都将面临扭转严峻经济形势的挑战。经济困境让许多新西兰人对未来感到悲观，越来越多人认为移居海外是维持体面生活的唯一选择。
Whoever eventually forms a government will face the challenge of turning around a dire economic picture that has many New Zealanders feeling bleak about their futures and increasingly seeing moving overseas as the only option to make a decent living.
生活成本飙升是首要担忧。奥塔哥大学最近的一项调查显示，四成新西兰人表示难以支付基本生活开支。失业率已升至5.7%，为2013年以来的最高水平。过去两年，该国每年移居海外的公民比回国的公民多出近4万人。
A surging cost of living is a leading concern, with four in 10 New Zealanders saying in a recent survey by the University of Otago that they were struggling to pay for essentials. Unemployment has edged up to 5.7 percent, the highest level since 2013. The country saw nearly 40,000 more citizens moving away than returning annually over the past two years.
卢克森和国家党曾试图说服选民再给他们一次机会，以解决通胀和政府债务问题。
Mr. Luxon and the National Party had sought to persuade voters to give them another chance to tackle inflation and government debt.
希普金斯自2023年杰辛达·阿德恩辞职以来一直领导工党，他将信息重点放在承诺降低医疗和交通成本上。
Mr. Hipkins, who has led the Labour Party since Jacinda Ardern’s resignation in 2023, centered his messaging on commitments to bring down health care and transportation costs.
“我们从这两位克里斯身上看到的，是领导力、魅力和希望的明显缺失，”新西兰基金管理公司Simplicity的首席经济学家沙穆比尔·伊亚库布说。“我认为，这次选举将因为缺乏愿景、在人们真正渴望希望之时缺乏希望而令人不安，从而被人铭记。”新西兰选民既要投票选出地方议会代表，也要投票选出一个政党。如果卢克森的联盟被投票赶下台，那将是50年来首次出现政府仅执政一届的情况。在最终计票完成之前，卢克森将领导看守政府。
“What we have seen from the two Chrises is a distinct lack of leadership, charisma and hope,” said Shamubeel Eaqub, the chief economist at Simplicity, a New Zealand fund management company. “This election, I think, will be remarked upon as one that was unsettling for its lack of vision and lack of hope at a time when people were really looking for it.”Voters in New Zealand cast ballots for both a local representative in Parliament and a party. If Mr. Luxon’s coalition is voted out, it will be the first time in 50 years that a government has lasted just one term. Mr. Luxon will run a caretaker government until the final votes are counted.
由于编辑错误，本文早前版本的一张图片说明写错了总理克里斯托弗·卢克森一场集会的日期。集会是在周五，而非周日。
Because of an editing error, a caption in an earlier version of this article misstated the day of a rally with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. It was on Friday, not Sunday.
我们通过更正来承认报道中的错误。如果您发现错误，请通过corrections@nytimes.com告知我们。了解更多。
We acknowledge mistakes in our reporting with corrections. If you spot an error, please let us know at corrections@nytimes.com. Learn more.
维多利亚·金是《纽约时报》驻悉尼的澳大利亚记者，报道澳大利亚、新西兰以及更广泛的太平洋地区。
Victoria Kim is the Australia correspondent for The New York Times, based in Sydney, covering Australia, New Zealand and the broader Pacific region.
劳拉·钟是《纽约时报》驻悉尼的记者兼研究员，报道澳大利亚、新西兰和太平洋地区。
Laura Chung is a Sydney-based reporter and researcher for The Times, covering Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific.