本·埃蒙斯几乎能精确指出中期选举的第一波冲击何时袭向华尔街。
Ben Emons can pinpoint almost exactly when the first wave of the midterm elections crashed over Wall Street.
埃蒙斯所在的公司提供投资研究。周二晚9点，他正坐在曼哈顿市中心的办公室里，安卓手机响个不停，一直响到午夜。他在通话间隙趴在办公桌旁做俯卧撑，勉强保持清醒。他说，一些客户不敢相信眼前发生的一切，也无法想象民主党大获全胜可能对市场意味着什么。“大家都措手不及，”埃蒙斯说，“这是一个真正的冲击性事件。”
Emons, whose firm provides investment research, was sitting at his downtown Manhattan office at 9 p.m. on Tuesday when his Android phone started ringing. It didn’t stop until midnight. He tried to stay awake between calls by doing push-ups on the floor next to his desk. Some clients couldn’t believe what was unfolding—or fathom what the Democrats’ landslide might mean for the market, he said. “People were caught off guard,” Emons said. “This is a real shock event.”
“我完全看不出这能行得通，”其中一位客户叹了口气，“一点都不行。”市场往往会对意外做出反应，有时甚至过度反应。但周二的选举让华尔街陷入了史无前例的狂乱；在随后的三天里，股市剧烈震荡，因为民主党的胜利将酝酿已久的人工智能交易的焦虑情绪推向高潮。
“I cannot see this working,” one of them sighed. “At all.”Markets often react, and sometimes overreact, to surprises. But Tuesday’s election sent Wall Street into a tizzy of historic proportions; stocks rocked violently in the three days that followed, as the Democrats’ victories supercharged anxieties over an artificial-intelligence trade that had been building for weeks.
清算时刻周四到来，AI宠儿英伟达和美光科技帮助纳斯达克综合指数跌入回调区间。对冲基金抛售持仓。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX），即华尔街的“恐慌指标”，飙升至3月以来的最高水平。
The reckoning came on Thursday, when AI darlings Nvidia and Micron Technology helped lead the Nasdaq composite into correction territory. Hedge funds dumped positions. The Cboe Volatility Index or VIX, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” jumped to its highest level since March.
数周来，投资者一直担忧数据中心运营商资产负债表上堆积的债务、谷歌等科技巨头不断萎缩的现金储备，以及AI生态系统的利润巅峰可能已成往事的隐隐猜疑。然而，鲜有人预料到民主党会在得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和佐治亚州等已成为未来数据中心项目关键战场的州份赢得州长选举。
For weeks, investors had fretted over the piles of debt on data-center operators’ balance sheets, the shrinking cash reserves at tech giants such as Alphabet, and the sneaking suspicion that the AI ecosystem’s peak profits were already in the past. Few, though, expected Democrats to win gubernatorial races in states like Texas, Ohio and Georgia that have emerged as key battlegrounds over future data-center projects.
这一周的特点是交易极其混乱：市场最初对选举消息做出积极反应，推动蓝筹股迎来数月来最佳单日表现。
The week was marked by haywire trading: Markets reacted positively to the election news at first, sending blue-chip stocks to their best day in months.
解脱是短暂的。周三的反弹让位于周四的惨烈抛售，纳斯达克综合指数市值蒸发 2.5 万亿美元，主要指数遭遇自 2025 年 4 月“解放日”暴跌以来最大单日跌幅。
The relief was short-lived. Wednesday’s rally gave way to a punishing Thursday selloff that erased $2.5 trillion in market value from the Nasdaq composite and dragged major indexes to their biggest one-day drop since the “Liberation Day” drop in April 2025.
投资者现在不得不面对这样一个问题：这究竟是又一段震荡交易，还是股市对技术革命那场全情投入、大举押注的早期平仓。
Now investors are left to grapple with the question of whether this is another stretch of choppy trading or the early unwinding of the stock market’s all-consuming, massive bet on the technological revolution.
“AI 股票增速放缓似乎不可避免，”惠灵顿管理公司股票投资组合经理蒂莫西·卡萨莱托说。“建设扩张的速度极有可能比市场此前预期的要慢。”在周二晚间，大多数美国人关心的重大问题远不止得克萨斯州农村一个数据中心项目的命运。
“A slowing of growth for AI stocks seems inevitable,” said Timothy Casaletto, an equity portfolio manager at Wellington Management. “The speed of the build-out is more likely than not to be slower than the market previously anticipated.”Heading into Tuesday night, most Americans had far-bigger concerns than the fate of a data-center development in rural Texas.
随着晚间首批结果陆续出炉，股指期货最初下滑。在胜利的决定性变得清晰、特朗普总统接受采访表示接受选举结果后，期货反弹。
As the evening’s first results trickled in, stock-index futures initially slipped. They reversed after the decisiveness of the victories became clear and President Trump gave interviews saying he accepted the election results.
凯私人银行首席投资官乔治·马泰约在家观看开票，与同事发短信交流，此时他读到了关于特朗普讲话的新闻。马泰约认为这很重要。
George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank, was watching the results at home, texting with work colleagues, when he read the news about Trump’s remarks. They mattered, Mateyo thought.
“我们会经历一段真正争议激烈、恶劣、充满对抗的时期，这种风险已经降低，”他说。“我对此感到积极。”华尔街的好心情延续到了周三。“实体经济”类公司股票如房屋建筑商和大型零售商大涨。道琼斯工业指数录得自 4 月以来最佳单日表现——一度看起来，交易员主要是松了一口气，选举终于结束了。周三的反弹被证明某种程度上是个假动作。
“The notion that we would see a real contested, nasty, contentious type of period of time, that risk had gone down,” he said. “I felt positive about that.”Wall Street’s good mood extended through Wednesday. Shares of “real-economy” companies like home builders and major retailers surged. The Dow industrials logged their best day since April — and for a moment, it looked like traders were mostly relieved that the election was over. Wednesday’s rally proved something of a headfake.
投资人兼内容创作者凯文·徐（Kevin Xu）在周四美东时间上午 10 点半左右瞥了一眼股市行情，不禁看了两遍。他的第一反应是：“但愿这是个失误。”这位旧金山内容创作者盯着纳斯达克指数下跌 4%，一夜之间几乎抹去了他退休投资组合中六位数的收益。在他的社交媒体动态里，其他散户投资者处于各种否认或痛苦状态。有人发表情包和全大写的愤怒帖，有人甚至贴出了心理健康热线电话。
When Kevin Xu, an investor and content creator, glanced at the stock market prices at about 10:30 a.m. ET Thursday, he did a double-take. His first thought: “I hope this is a mistake.”The San Francisco-based content creator was staring at a 4% drop in the Nasdaq that had erased a six-figure sum from his retirement portfolio practically overnight. Across his social-media feeds, other individual investors were in various states of denial. Or duress. Some posted memes and all-caps rants. One posted the phone number for a mental-health hotline.
“毫无办法，”他说起这波下跌时表示，“只能眼睁睁看着。”盘中并未出现缓解。随着时间推移，美股抛售浪潮加速。交易员变得紧张；华尔街“恐慌指数”VIX 飙升。
“There’s nothing to do,” he said of the drop. “You just watch.”There was no midday relief. The waves of selling in the U.S. stock market accelerated as the day wore on. Traders were getting jumpy; Wall Street’s “fear gauge” VIX spiked.
系统化交易助推了跌幅。VIX 的跳涨可能触发了一类被称为波动率控制基金的基金——它们倾向根据市场动荡程度做买卖决策——开始抛售股票。它们加入了抛售雪崩，与对冲基金公司、新手投资者和其他资管机构一道抛售。
Systematic trades helped amplify the losses. That jump in the VIX potentially triggered a group of funds known as volatility-control funds, which tend to make buying and selling decisions based on the level of turbulence in markets, to start dumping stocks. They added to an avalanche of selling, joining hedge-fund firms, rookie investors and other money managers.
巴克莱估计，波动率控制基金将股市敞口削减了 30 个百分点，创下自 2020 年 2 月新冠疫情冲击市场以来最大单日降幅。
Barclays estimates that volatility-control funds slashed their exposure to the stock market by 30 percentage points, the biggest one-day decline since February 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic jolted markets.
到下午 3 点，科技股云集的纳斯达克跌幅约 4.5%，一些交易员盯着屏幕，猜测行情是否会像以往那样在收盘前最后一小时反弹。结果抛售进一步加剧。
By 3 p.m., with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down around 4.5%, some traders were peering at their screens and wondering if things would turn around, as they sometimes have in the final hour before the closing bell. Instead, the selloff worsened.
一些新型交易可能放大了波动。交易员指出，杠杆交易型产品中沉淀着数十亿美元资金，它们放大了对股市的敞口。此类基金资产规模今年处于高位，其临近收盘时的再平衡操作可能进一步助长波动。
Some newfangled trades may have exacerbated the moves. Traders pointed to the billions of dollars sitting in leveraged exchange-traded products, which turbocharge exposure to the stock market. Assets in these funds have been at highs this year, and their rebalancing activity around the market close can fuel more volatility.
多位交易员表示，周四的抛售是拥挤交易瓦解的典型案例，且走势是由跨市场的持仓驱动的。
Several traders said Thursday’s selloff was a classic example of a crowded trade unraveling, and the moves were driven by positioning across markets.
惠灵顿管理的卡萨莱托表示，市场在“吐掉任何与人工智能相关的东西”。
The market was “puking anything related to AI,” Wellington’s Casaletto said.
交易员不再押注“孤注一掷”式的赌注——即如果人工智能和芯片股继续飙升就会获利——而是涌入押注市场崩盘获利的交易。期权总成交量创下了有记录以来的最高水平，数据可追溯至20世纪70年代。
Instead of the YOLO bets that would pay out if AI and chip stocks kept surging, traders piled into bets that would profit from a market crash. Total options volumes hit the highest level on record in data going back to the 1970s.
波动率管理人、凯财富创始人凯姆·卡尔桑表示，他已买入复杂衍生品——包括与恐慌指数（VIX）挂钩的产品、标普500指数期权以及债券市场的信用违约互换——这些产品将在波动率飙升时获利。他正为未来几个月可能出现的更多市场动荡做准备。卡尔桑说：“这对市场来说是极其危险的几天。”科技股周五上演部分反弹，但所有主要美股指数本周仍全线收跌。
Cem Karsan, a volatility manager and founder of Kai Wealth, said he has purchased complex derivatives—including those tied to the VIX, options tied to the S&P 500 and credit-default swaps in the bond market—that would pay out if volatility surged. He is bracing for more market tumult in coming months. “This is an incredibly dangerous couple of days for the market,” Karsan said. Tech stocks staged a partial recovery on Friday, though all major U.S. indexes still ended the week in the red.
一个关键问题是，推动人工智能交易的势头未来是否会降档。分析师表示，早年牛市中那种“全买”式的投资热潮正在消退，一个新阶段正在展开。
One key question is whether the momentum behind the AI trade will shift into a lower gear moving forward. The buy-it-all investing boom that characterized the early years of the bull market for tech stocks is petering out, analysts said.
“这会发生的情况是：我们将转向经济和盈利更具可持续性的速度，”美国银行资产管理集团首席投资官丹·法利（Dan Farley）表示。“但当你从一个速度换挡到另一个速度时，会有颠簸。”
And a new phase is under way. “This is what happens: we shift into a more sustainable velocity for the economy and for earnings,” said Dan Farley, the chief investment officer for U.S. Bank Asset Management Group. “But there’s turbulence when you shift from one speed to another.”
Key Private Bank的马泰奥（Mateyo）表示，他的团队已开始考虑寻找买入机会，认为这次选举更多的是“对当前政治现状的谴责”，而非“对经济和金融现状的谴责”。
Key Private Bank’s Mateyo said his team has started to think about looking for buying opportunities, seeing the election as more of “a rebuke of the current political status quo” than it was a “rebuke of the economic and financial status quo.”
他补充称，州级法规可能会放缓——但不会阻止——数据中心的建设。公众可能对人工智能存有疑虑，但随着时间的推移，人们将继续“使用它，将其融入工作、融入生活，其中一些愤世嫉俗或怀疑态度可能会随时间消退”。一些投资者并不确信美国人会学会喜欢把数据中心当邻居。
State-level rules will likely slow—but not stop—data-center construction, he added. The public might have some qualms about AI, but over time, people will continue to “use it, incorporate it into their work, into their lives, and some of that cynicism or skepticism might fade over time.”Some investors aren’t so sure Americans will learn to love data centers as neighbors.
“我们从选举中得到的是，存在对数据中心建设真正鄙视的可量化证据，”Man Group高级投资组合经理马特·罗（Matt Rowe）表示。美国人在地方投票议题中以压倒性优势反对数据中心，这“开始改变我对这些项目执行概率的看法”，他说。
“What we got out of the election was quantifiable evidence that there is real disdain for the data-center build-out,” said Matt Rowe, senior portfolio manager at Man Group. Americans voted so overwhelmingly against data centers in local ballot measures that it “started to change my mindset around the probability of these projects getting executed,” he said.
“在其他条件相同的情况下，这些项目的执行将需要更长时间，成本也会更高。”
“All else equal, these projects are going to take longer to get executed, and they’re going to cost more to do.”