
投资者押注美国中期选举后人工智能发展将放缓。这并非近几个月来股市首次因科技泡沫担忧而动荡。但这波波动是否可能成为大规模市场崩盘的开端?发生了什么?
as investors bet on an AI slowdown after the US midterm elections. This is not the first time stock markets have wobbled in recent months due to concerns over a tech bubble. But could this volatility be the start of a huge market meltdown? What has happened?
周四,华尔街股市暴跌,由人工智能和科技股领跌的抛售潮周五蔓延至亚洲和欧洲。美国市场在纽约交易重启后反弹,但未能收复全部失地,因对抛售压力卷土重来的担忧挥之不去。
Shares on Wall Street plunged on Thursday in a rout driven by AI and technology stocks that extended to Asia and Europe on Friday. US markets rebounded after trading reopened in New York, but failed to recover all of the lost ground amid lingering concerns of a relapse in selling pressure.
周四美国股市市值蒸发超过3.2万亿美元(约合2.4万亿英镑)——超过去年加拿大全年经济总产出——科技股云集的纳斯达克指数下跌5.5%,蓝筹股标普500指数下跌4.4%。
More than $3.2tn (£2.4tn) was wiped from the value of the US stock market on Thursday – bigger than the annual output of the Canadian economy – after the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell by 5.5% and the blue-chip S&P 500 fell by 4.4%.
在对人工智能公司估值发出数月警告——在伊朗战争助长全球经济火药桶般局势、以及科技泡沫可能破裂的担忧中——此次抛售的触发因素被归因于民主党在中期选举中大获全胜。为什么中期选举引发抛售?
After months of warnings over the valuations of AI companies – amid fears of tinderbox conditions in the world economy fuelled by the Iran war and concerns that the tech bubble could burst – the trigger for the sell-off has been attributed to the Democrats' sweeping US midterm election victory Why did the midterms trigger a sell-off? Investors are predicting that a Democrat-controlled Congress could lead to tighter control of AI and datacentre construction – slowing development in one of the engines of global economic growth and corporate earnings on the stock market.

投资者预测,民主党控制的国会可能导致对人工智能和数据中心建设实施更严格管控——从而拖缓全球经济增长和股市企业盈利的引擎之一的发展。
Challenging billionaire power and calling out Wall Street and big tech were the rallying cries of many Democrats in the midterm elections.
在中期选举中,挑战亿万富翁权力、指责华尔街和大型科技公司成为许多民主党人的竞选口号。在公众对建设大型、高耗能设施的反对情绪日益高涨的背景下,暂停数据中心建设实际上成为多个州的选举议题。
Moratoriums on datacentre construction were effectively on the ballot in several states amid growing public opposition to the building of vast, resource-hungry facilities. Highlighting the stakes, the SpaceX and Tesla CEO, Elon Musk set a record for election spending after pouring nearly half a billion dollars into backing Republicans – and moved his personal residence to Texas, the leading state for datacentre construction.
凸显利害关系的是,SpaceX和特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克在支持共和党的竞选支出上投入近5亿美元,创下选举支出纪录——并将个人住所迁至得克萨斯州,该州是数据中心建设的领先州份。中期选举后,他旗下两家公司的股价均大幅下跌。关于 AI 泡沫的担忧不是早就有了吗?
After the midterms shares in both his companies fell sharply. Weren't there already concerns about an AI bubble? Fears of an AI bubble have been growing for some time, given the astronomical rise in tech company valuations, which some analysts said had become increasingly detached from reality.
鉴于科技公司估值飙升至天文数字,一些分析师认为这已越来越脱离现实,对 AI 泡沫的担忧已酝酿一段时间。
One measure of whether a market is overvalued, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (Cape) ratio, had risen to its highest level since 2000, showing that the US stock market was unusually highly valued relative to profits.
衡量市场是否高估的一个指标——周期性调整市盈率(Cape)已升至 2000 年以来的最高水平,显示美国股市相对于利润的估值异常之高。
Highlighting the disconnect, shares in Alphabet, the Google parent company, plunged last week after it reported lower than expected profits wiping more than $500bn from its value.
凸显这种脱节的是,谷歌母公司 Alphabet 的股价上周暴跌,因其公布的利润低于预期,市值蒸发超过 5000 亿美元。
Some form of a check on progress was also likely, amid a groundswell of public opposition to datacentre construction and worries over AI safety.

在公众反对建设数据中心的声浪高涨、以及对 AI 安全的担忧之际,进度受到某种形式的制约也在所难免。民调显示,大多数美国人反对美国建设数据中心,而世界各国政府已鼓励民众为包括网络攻击在内的多种突发情况储备物资。
Opinion polls show most Americans are opposed to US datacentre construction while governments around the world have encouraged citizens to stockpile for multiple eventualities including cyber-attacks. Ben Barringer, the head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, said: "It is too easy to say that the Democrats will be bad for datacentres.
Quilter Cheviot 科技研究主管本·巴林杰表示:“说民主党对数据中心不利,这太容易了。
"Yes, there will be a pause in the buildout and delay in approvals, but if you go off the words of the new Texas governor-elect, Gina Hinojosa they are likely to be more pragmatic and ensure resources are more fairly allocated."
“是的,建设会暂停,审批会延迟,但如果参考德克萨斯州当选州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨的表态,他们可能会更务实,确保资源分配更公平。” 对家庭意味着什么?美国科技巨头的股价走向对全球储户影响巨大。
What does it mean for households? What happens to the share prices of the US tech giants has enormous consequences for savers worldwide.
“美股七巨头”——英伟达、苹果、谷歌、微软、Meta、亚马逊和特斯拉——占标普 500 指数的三分之一以上,这意味着跟踪该指数的基金直接与其表现挂钩。
magnificent seven " tech stocks – Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Tesla – account for more than a third of the S&P 500, meaning that funds that track this index are directly tied to their performance.
AI 一直是主要增长动力,科技繁荣有助于缓冲中东战争对世界经济的冲击。
AI has been a big growth driver, with the tech boom helping to soften the hit to the world economy from the war in the Middle East.
持续的科技股抛售前景可能构成重大挫折,这对那些寄希望于人工智能革命创造就业、带来生产率提振、以摆脱多年相对经济停滞的国家来说是一个打击。
The prospect of a sustained tech sell-off could prove a big setback, in a blow to countries that have pinned their hopes on the AI revolution creating jobs and generating a productivity boost to overcome years of relative economic stagnation.
针对伊朗战争引发的通胀冲击,世界各地的央行一直在加息。然而,经济放缓可能迫使央行重新考量,因为面临滞胀风险——即疲软增长伴随消费品价格快速上涨。接下来会发生什么?
In response to the inflation shock from the Iran war, central banks around the world have been raising interest rates. However, an economic slowdown could force a rethink amid the risk of stagflation, when weak growth is accompanied by fast-rising consumer prices. What happens next?
金融市场容易出现剧烈波动,投资者对局势是否会进一步恶化意见不一。然而,许多人担心一场大崩盘早已迟到——一旦投资者开始失去信心,这种情绪可能会自我强化。
Financial markets are prone to volatile swings and investors are divided about whether things will get worse from here. Many were, however, worried a big crash was overdue – and when investors begin to lose confidence, it can become self-reinforcing.
巴林杰表示:“良性循环可能迅速转变为恶性循环,他们(投资者)现在必须熬过去,直到走势方向变得更加清晰。” 对一些人来说,最近的科技股暴跌代表的是一次重置,而非持久的下行趋势。对人工智能和半导体的需求不会一夜之间消失:新工具将继续推出,数据中心将继续建设。
Barringer said: "A virtuous circle could quickly turn into a vicious one, and they [investors] must now ride it out until the direction of travel becomes clearer." For some, the latest tech rout represents a reset rather than a lasting downturn. Demand for AI and semiconductors will not vanish overnight: new tools will continue to be launched, and datacentres will be built.
瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克·海费勒表示,尽管最近出现“市场消化不良”,人工智能投资周期应保持完好。他补充道:“我们不认为基本面足以支撑长期下行。”
Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the AI investment cycle should remain intact, despite the latest "market indigestion". "We do not think fundamentals justify a prolonged downturn," he added.