
对人工智能(AI)进行更多监管的担忧似乎引发了投资者的恐慌,但对该行业的担忧已持续一段时间。
Fears of more AI regulation appear to have sparked fear among investors, but concerns about the industry have been growing for some time.
作者:西奥·莱格特,奥斯蒙德·齐亚 人工智能(AI)淘金热是否即将结束,还是这仅仅是一次现实检验?这就是悬在投资者头上的问题,并已导致全球股市大幅下跌。
By Theo Leggett, Osmond Chia Is the artificial intelligence (AI) gold rush coming to an end, or is this simply a reality check? That's the question which is hanging over investors, and which has prompted steep falls on the world's stock markets.
周四美国股市的抛售在纳斯达克指数上表现最为剧烈,该指数是Alphabet、Nvidia、Meta和Apple等科技行业巨头的所在地。此前,民主党在本周美国中期选举中大获全胜,完全控制了国会。
The sell-off in the US on Thursday was most dramatic on the Nasdaq, home to tech industry titans such as Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta and Apple. It followed sweeping gains by the Democrats in this week's mid-term elections in the US, which have given the party full control of Congress.
一些主要民主党人曾竞选反对数据中心不受限制的扩张,而数据中心是人工智能增长的基础。
A number of leading Democrats campaigned against the unhindered expansion of data centres, which have underpinned the growth of artificial intelligence.
AI热潮 OpenAI于2022年底发布的ChatGPT被广泛认为是引发了公众和企业对AI实际应用产生巨大兴趣的导火索。它也引发了一场现代版的淘金热。
AI boom The release of Chat GPT by Open AI in late 2022 is widely seen as having generated massive public and corporate interest in the practical uses of AI. It also sparked a modern-day gold rush.
投资者纷纷将资金投入生产计算机芯片和网络基础设施、建设数据中心、提供能源以及开发AI本身的公司。科技公司的市值飙升。
Investors flocked to put their money into companies producing computer chips and networking infrastructure, building data centres and providing the energy to power them, as well as developing the AI itself. The value of tech companies soared.
这股热潮一直持续到今年。高盛的研究预计,仅2026年对AI的投资就将达到1万亿美元。该行业已经吸纳了大量可用资金,导致其他行业的借贷成本随之增加。
The boom continued into this year. Investments in AI are expected to reach $1trillion in 2026 alone according to research by Goldman Sachs. The sector has scooped up so much available cash that other industries have seen their own borrowing costs increase as a result.
但投资者想要回报,近几个月来,人们越来越担心AI热潮能否带来预期的财富。
But investors want returns, and in recent months concerns have been growing about whether the AI boom can produce the expected riches.
这些担忧出现之际,AI研究人员公开评论对AI的安全性表示怀疑——甚至暗示AI可能对人类构成生存威胁——这些言论已成为头条新闻,并助长了可能进行打压的猜测。民主党人的反对尽管特朗普政府一直全力投入人工智能——或者按总统本人的说法,叫“超级智能”——但许多民主党高层已经抓住了基层民众的担忧,即数据中心扩张及其对当地社区的影响。
Those worries have emerged at a time when public comments from AI researchers casting doubt over the safety of AI - even suggesting it could represent an existential threat to humanity - have been grabbing headlines and fuelling speculation that a clampdown could lie ahead. Democrat opposition While the Trump administration has been all-in on AI, or "super intelligence" as the president likes to call it, many leading Democrats have tapped into grassroots concerns about the expansion of data centres and their impact on local communities.
这些担忧主要集中在相关设施的高水耗和高电耗上,许多人担心这会推高家庭账单,此外还有噪音、土地占用以及与之相关的种种干扰。
These were largely focused on the facilities' high consumption of water and electricity, which many feared would push up their household bills – as well as the noise, use of land, and general disruption associated with them.
盖洛普5月发布的一项民调显示,71%的美国人会反对在自家社区建设数据中心。相比之下,反对建核电站的比例为53%。
A Gallup poll published in May showed 71% of Americans would oppose the building of a data centre in their community. The figure for a nuclear power station was 53%.
詹姆斯·塔拉里科就是抓住这种怀疑情绪的人之一,他赢得了曾经是共和党铁杆地盘的得克萨斯州的参议院选举。
James Talarico, who won the Senate race in once staunchly Republican Texas, was one of those to tap into this scepticism.
他说:“我们既要维护美国在人工智能领域的领先地位,也仍在努力应对它将如何影响从我们的工作方式到孩子学习方式的方方面面。”
"While we want to protect America's leadership in artificial intelligence, we are still grappling with how it will affect everything from how we work to how our children learn," he said.
“我们必须保护美国人,并为企业制定明确、一致的规则。”如今民主党掌控国会两院,预计他们将更有力地挑战总统的科技议程,同时推出可能限制该行业扩张的立法。
"We must protect Americans and establish clear, consistent laws for businesses." With control of both houses of Congress, Democrats are now expected to challenge the president's technology agenda more vigorously, while introducing legislation which could curb the expansion of the industry.
得克萨斯州当选民主党州长吉娜·伊诺霍萨以反对数据中心为竞选主张,承诺暂停新建此类设施。
Texas' Democratic governor-elect Gina Hinojosa campaigned against data centres, pledging a moratorium on the construction of new facilities.
伊诺霍萨的胜选可能对科技亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克构成阻力,他已将太空探索技术公司和特斯拉的大部分业务迁往这个长期由共和党主导的州。
Hinojosa's win could present opposition to tech multi-billionaire Elon Musk, who has moved large parts of SpaceX and Tesla's operations to the state, for years a Republican stronghold.
这位特斯拉老板在中期选举中投入了近4.5亿美元支持共和党竞选。股市下一步走向何方?
The Tesla boss had spent nearly $450m to back Republican campaigns in the midterms. Where next for stocks?
正如英国科技公司安谋控股的联合创始人图多尔·布朗所指出的,“股票价值基于未来盈利,而非当前盈利”。如果回报可能不如预期丰厚,一些投资者就会选择抛售离场。
As the co-founder of the British-based technology firm Arm Holdings, Tudor Brown, points out, "stock values are based on future earnings not present earnings". If the rewards are not likely to be as great as expected, some investors will choose to sell up.
过去24小时内股市的下跌似乎是由中期选举结果引发的。但早在选举之前,就有人对科技公司估值过高表示担忧。
The falls seen on stock markets over the past 24 hours would appear to have been triggered by the mid-term results. But concerns that tech firms have become overvalued were being expressed long before the elections.
现在的问题是,这仅仅是过度繁荣市场泡沫的挤出,还是人工智能热潮即将破灭的信号,并将带来更广泛的后果。
The question now is whether this is simply the removal of froth from an over-exuberant market, or a sign that the AI rush is a bubble about to burst, with much wider consequences.
Future Market Insights 的 Nandini Roy Choudhury 认为,投资者将评估政治转变是否会导致数据中心建设、能源消耗和人工智能技术部署受到限制。
Nandini Roy Choudhury of Future Market Insights thinks investors will assess whether the political shift could result in restrictions on data centre construction, energy consumption and the deployment of AI technology.
她补充说,科技股不太可能立即出现广泛复苏,因为交易员可能会更具选择性,偏爱资产负债表更强的公司。
She adds there is unlikely to be an immediate widespread recovery in tech stocks as traders are likely to be more selective, favouring firms with stronger balance sheets.
Brown 认为影响将是有限的。他认为,股价被“几乎无限的人工智能增长”的预期所推高,随后又出现了“一些恐慌”。
Brown thinks the impact will be limited. Share valuations, he thinks, were inflated by expectations of "almost infinite AI growth", which have been followed by "a bit of a panic".
“这有一个自然的底线,”他说。“在那之后,我认为它将反映出这些公司仍然能赚很多钱。”
"There is a natural floor to this", he says. "After that it will reflect I think that actually there's still a lot of money being made in these companies".