“总统无论出于什么原因，总是在中期选举中失利，”特朗普总统几周前曾表示。2026年之所以非同寻常，在于共和党失利的规模和范围——以及这些失利预示的政治左转。
‘The president always loses, for whatever reason, the midterms,” President Trump said a few weeks ago. What makes 2026 remarkable is the size and scope of GOP losses—and the political left turn those losses portend.
民主党经历了自1974年以来最好的中期选举表现，当时公众对水门事件的愤怒、尼克松总统辞职以及福特总统有争议地赦免尼克松，使国会果断地向左转向。预计民主党将在2026年全国众议院得票中以13个百分点的优势获胜。据一项估算，他们将赢得258个席位，这是自2008年以来的最大多数优势。
Democrats had their best midterm since 1974, when public furor at the Watergate scandal, President Nixon’s resignation and President Ford’s controversial pardon of Nixon moved Congress decisively to the left. The Democrats are projected to win the 2026 national House vote by 13 points. One estimate has them winning 258 seats, their largest majority since 2008.
撰写本文时，民主党已赢得七个参议院席位。他们可能在阿拉斯加和——这不是印刷错误——密西西比州赢得更多席位。民主党在至少五个州夺回了州长职位，分别是佐治亚州、爱荷华州、内华达州、俄亥俄州和得克萨斯州。至少有12个州立法机构议院从红变蓝。
At this writing, Democrats have picked up seven Senate seats. They may pick up additional seats in Alaska and—this isn’t a misprint—Mississippi. Democrats flipped at least five governorships, in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas. At least 12 state legislative chambers flipped from red to blue.
民主党克服了本可能限制其影响力的结构性障碍，首先是政治地形。共和党认为他们能在特朗普先生多次以两位数优势获胜的州守住阵地。他们错了。民主党赢得了《库克政治报告》（艾米·沃尔特版）评为“势均力敌”的每一场参议院选举，从哈里斯以7个百分点优势获胜的缅因州，到特朗普先生以16个百分点优势获胜的堪萨斯州。堪萨斯州已有94年未曾派遣民主党人进入参议院。
Democrats overcame structural barriers that might have limited their reach, beginning with the political terrain. Republicans believed they could hold ground in states that voted for Mr. Trump by double digits several times. They were wrong. Democrats won every Senate election that the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rated a tossup, from Maine, which Kamala Harris carried by 7 points, to Kansas, which Mr. Trump won by 16 points. Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years.
共和党去年重新划分了州国会选区地图以保护其众议院多数优势。选区操纵适得其反。共和党选票分散得太薄，即使是最精密的选区操纵也无法抵御选举海啸。民主党担心最高法院推翻种族选区操纵的裁决会降低黑人的政治参与度和投票权力。相反，州和联邦层面的黑人代表性有望上升。黑人全州范围候选人赢得了许多竞选，包括佐治亚州州长职位，以及极有可能获得的那个密西西比州参议院席位。
Republicans redrew state congressional maps last year to protect their House majority. The gerrymandering backfired. Republican votes were spread too thin, and not even the most sophisticated gerrymander can withstand an electoral tsunami. Democrats feared that a Supreme Court decision striking down racial gerrymanders would reduce black political participation and voting power. Instead, black representation at both the state and federal levels is set to rise. Black statewide candidates won many contests, including the Georgia governorship and probably that Mississippi Senate seat.
共和党全国委员会及外部团体在资金上相较民主党对手建立了显著优势。但资金作用有限。根据“公开秘密”网站（OpenSecrets.org）的数据，民主党候选人筹集的资金超过共和党人，且民主党总体支出连续第二个选举周期超过共和党。民主党最爱妖魔化的两个“替罪羊”——最高法院的“联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案”判决和埃隆·马斯克——都未能阻挡民主党的势头。
The Republican National Committee and outside groups had built up a significant cash advantage over their Democratic counterparts. The money had little effect. Democratic candidates outraised Republicans, and Democrats outspent Republicans overall for the second straight election, according to OpenSecrets.org. Two of the Democrats’ favorite bogeymen—the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and Elon Musk—couldn’t stop the party’s advance.
这是因为共和党被一股对特朗普先生及其政策的厌恶浪潮所淹没。最能说明问题的中期选举统计数据是总统工作支持率。出口民调显示，特朗普的支持率为38%。76%表示对国家现状“不满或愤怒”的选民压倒性地投票给民主党。75%认为经济状况“不太好或很差”的选民也是如此。选民认为特朗普先生优先次序错误，将个人利益置于公共利益之上，并使经济状况恶化。经济增长和充分就业的重要性不如通胀及随之而来的实际工资下降。
That’s because the GOP was overwhelmed by a wave of revulsion to Mr. Trump and his policies. The most telling midterm statistic is presidential job approval. Exit polls had Trump’s approval rating at 38%. The 76% of voters who said they are “dissatisfied or angry” at the way things are going in the country voted overwhelmingly for Democrats. So did the 75% of voters who said the economy is “not so good or poor.”Voters said Mr. Trump has the wrong priorities, puts his personal interest above the public interest, and made economic conditions worse. Economic growth and full employment mattered less than inflation and the corresponding decline in real wages.
特朗普先生于2024年当选，承诺降低通胀、关闭边境、给华盛顿带来变革，并通过实力实现和平。尽管他在所有这些目标上都取得了进展，特别是遏制非法移民，但他尚未完全兑现承诺，且屡屡自乱阵脚。
Mr. Trump was elected in 2024 on the promise of reducing inflation, closing the border, bringing change to Washington and achieving peace through strength. Though he has made strides toward all these goals, especially curbing illegal immigration, he hasn’t crossed the finish line and often trips over his own feet.
选民对特朗普先生对白宫和倒影池的翻修，恐怕比对去年《一个宏伟美丽法案》（One Big Beautiful Bill Act）中的减税、储蓄账户以及福利和教育改革了解得更多。他们当然已从经验中明白，通胀率可能下降，但物价通常不会回落。通胀吞噬了工资涨幅——也吞噬了对总统的支持。
Voters probably know more about Mr. Trump’s renovations to the White House and Reflecting Pool than about the tax cuts, savings accounts and welfare and education reforms in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. They certainly have learned through experience that while inflation rates may fall, prices generally don’t. Inflation eats up wage gains—and presidential support.
未能切实回应选民关切，导致政治联盟瓦解。两年前，特朗普先生在白人选民中以15个百分点的优势获胜；周二，共和党与民主党在该群体中平分秋色。特朗普先生在2024年拉美裔选民中落后5个百分点；共和党在2026年则落后27个百分点。
Failing to address voter concerns meaningfully causes political coalitions to disappear. Mr. Trump won white voters by 15 points two years ago; on Tuesday, Republicans split them evenly with Democrats. Mr. Trump lost Latino voters by 5 points in 2024; Republicans lost them by 27 points in 2026.
其他关键群体也出现了同样的转变：特朗普先生在无党派选民中落后3个百分点；共和党在2026年落后14个百分点。特朗普先生在18至29岁选民中落后11个百分点；共和党今年落后47个百分点。特朗普先生在郊区选民中领先4个百分点；其政党周二则落后18个百分点。全国上下——每个地区、每个人口群体——都感受到了“蓝色浪潮”。
The same shift happened with other key blocs: Mr. Trump lost independents by 3 points; Republicans in 2026 by 14. Mr. Trump lost 18- to 29-year-olds by 11 points; Republicans this year by 47. Mr. Trump won suburban voters by 4 points; his party lost them Tuesday by 18. The entire country—every region, every demographic—felt the blues.
伊朗战争在这场惨败中扮演了多大角色尚不清楚。副总统万斯周三在社交媒体上发布激烈帖文称：“我们输掉选举的原因是战争。”特朗普先生对记者表示，虽然战争“短期内让汽油价格上涨了一点”，但他坚持攻击伊朗的决定，因为“不能让伊朗拥有核武器”。没人提及，自特朗普先生4月宣布停火以来，伊朗战争一直处于暂停状态，在无果的谈判与偶尔的惩罚性打击之间交替进行。
How large a role the Iran war played in this debacle is unclear. Vice President JD Vance said in a fiery social-media post Wednesday that “the reason we lost is the war.”Mr. Trump told reporters that while the war “drove gasoline up a little bit short term,” he stands by his decision to attack because “You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”No one mentioned that the Iran war has been on pause, alternating between inconclusive negotiations and occasional punitive strikes, since Mr. Trump announced a ceasefire in April.
总统或其政府任何显要成员也未花费大量时间为干预行动辩护。尽管63%的选民认为“史诗之怒”行动是错误决定，但只有34%的人称其对其投票选择“至关重要”。相比之下，49%的人认为生活成本至关重要，55%的人认为政府腐败至关重要。
Nor has the president or any prominent member of his administration devoted significant time to making the case for the intervention. Though 63% of voters said Operation Epic Fury was the wrong decision, only 34% said it was “crucial” to their vote. By contrast, 49% said the cost of living and 55% said government corruption was crucial.
诚然，伊朗政权封锁霍尔木兹海峡并威胁海湾能源基础设施，推高了生活成本。但关税也有责任。当被问及特朗普先生的关税政策是利还是弊时，66%的人认为有害。稍少的多数派——58%——认为政府的移民执法行动过火。
To be sure, the Iranian regime’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz and threat to Gulf energy infrastructure has contributed to the cost of living. But tariffs have too. When asked if Mr. Trump’s tariff policies have helped or hurt the economy, 66% said they hurt. A slightly smaller majority—58%—said the administration’s immigration enforcement has gone too far.
外国干预未解决、保护主义、驱逐行动中过度使用武力以及腐败臭味，共同导致了共和党的惨败。没有哪个单一变量的改变就能扭转局面。但这不会阻止各个共和党派系将选举失利归咎于党内政敌。
An unresolved foreign intervention, protectionism, excessive use of force in deportation efforts and the stench of corruption all contributed to the Republican rout. No single variable could have been changed to make things right. But that won’t stop various GOP factions from blaming their intraparty antagonists for failure at the polls.
特朗普先生在选举之夜开始了相互指责，他对《华尔街日报》表示，一些共和党候选人“本可以做得更好”，“有很多缺陷”。他没有提到，他在佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和德克萨斯州亲自挑选的候选人都以两位数的差距落败。他也没有提到另一位他支持的人选、南卡罗来纳州的达琳·格雷厄姆，她以4个百分点的差距落选。万斯先生随后将失败的责任归咎于对伊朗强硬派和美国—以色列联盟的支持者——他的老板 presumably 除外。
Mr. Trump began the finger-pointing on election night when he told the Journal that some Republican candidates “could have been better” and “had a lot of flaws.”He neglected to mention that his hand-selected candidates in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas went down in double-digit defeats. Nor did he name another of his picks, Darline Graham of South Carolina, who lost by 4 points. Mr. Vance followed up by assigning responsibility for the defeat to Iran hawks and supporters of the U.S.-Israel alliance—his boss presumably excepted.
这场内斗将贯穿整个2028年总统竞选。正如即将退休的众议员伊丽丝·斯特凡尼克所指出的，特朗普先生是独一无二的历史人物，其获胜联盟无法复制。他的胜利与其说基于原则，不如说基于个人魅力。共和党人将在未来几年里为其特朗普后的身份争论不休：他们希望向选民展示什么新面孔？哪个议程能说服摇摆选民，并带来繁荣的经济和社会？如何最好地对抗决心让美国屈服的侵略者轴心——中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜？
The infighting will continue throughout the 2028 presidential campaign. As retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik pointed out, Mr. Trump is a singular historical figure whose winning coalitions can’t be replicated. His victories were tied less to principles than to personal charisma. Republicans will spend the coming years arguing over their post-Trump identity: What new face do they wish to present to the electorate? Which agenda will persuade swing voters and also lead to a flourishing economy and society? How best to combat the axis of aggressors—China, Russia, Iran and North Korea—dead-set on bringing America to heel?
尽管万斯可能是共和党的领跑者，但他不会是唯一就此类问题提供答案的共和党人。选举结果使得他更有可能面临多位总统提名竞争者，其中可能包括特朗普内阁的其他成员。关于经济增长、外国干预、堕胎、福利以及美国公民身份本质的争论，将定义保守主义和共和党的纲领。特朗普高悬其上，他从不吝啬表达观点，而他的行政命令和外交政策将以无人能预料的方式塑造政治环境。
While Mr. Vance may be the GOP front-runner, he won’t be the only Republican offering answers to such questions. The election results make it more likely that he will have multiple challengers for the presidential nomination, possibly including fellow members of Mr. Trump’s cabinet. Arguments over economic growth, foreign intervention, abortion, welfare and the nature of American citizenship will define conservatism and the Republican program. Looming above will be Mr. Trump, who is never reluctant to offer his opinions, and whose executive orders and foreign policy will shape the environment in ways no one can predict.
尽管如此，无需博彩市场也能看出，美国政治正在向左转向。进步事业和提案在过去一年里一直占据舞台中央——反冰局抗议、要求医疗补贴、呼吁暂停数据中心建设和人工智能发展、谴责以色列及其美国支持者。社会主义和进步明星，如纽约市长马姆达尼、参议员奥索夫和众议员康纳，主导着舆论。
Still, you don’t need a betting market to know that American politics is tacking left. Progressive causes and proposals have been center stage for the past year—anti-ICE protests, demands for healthcare subsidies, calls for moratoriums on data-center construction and artificial-intelligence development, denunciations of Israel and its American supporters. Socialist and progressive stars such as New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani, Sen. Jon Ossoff and Rep. Ro Khanna drive the discourse.
特朗普联盟的分支已与左派联手，呼吁终止对以色列援助并从中东撤军。当选参议员阿卜杜勒·赛义德播放了包含卡尔森背书的广告。万斯去年12月表示，他欣赏马姆达尼、康纳和参议员桑德斯。他对参议员费特曼——这位在9月共和党中期大会视频中露面的亲以色列民主党人——则只字未提。
Offshoots of Mr. Trump’s coalition have joined forces with the left to call for ending aid to Israel and withdrawing from the Middle East. Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed ran ads featuring Tucker Carlson’s endorsement. Mr. Vance said last December that he appreciated Mr. Mamdani, Mr. Khanna and Sen. Bernie Sanders. He didn’t say anything about Sen. John Fetterman, the pro-Israel Democrat who appeared in a video at the GOP’s midterm convention in September.
与美国民主社会主义者组织结盟的社会主义“小分队”众议员人数即将翻倍。规模大得多的众议院进步核心小组——目前约有100名成员——还将进一步壮大。社会主义与进步主义的界限模糊不清：众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔既是“小分队”创始成员，也是进步核心小组副主席。“小分队”和进步派将在科技、移民和以色列问题上推动民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯和查克·舒默向左转，无论党内精英多么希望在2028年大选前强调负担能力和调查议题。
The socialist “Squad” of congressmen aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America is set to double in size. The much larger House Progressive Caucus—currently some 100 members—will grow even more. The line between socialism and progressivism is blurry: Rep. Ilhan Omar is a founding member of the Squad and deputy chairman of the Progressive Caucus. The Squad and Progressives will push Democratic leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer to the left on tech, immigration and Israel, no matter how much the party elite would prefer to emphasize affordability and investigations ahead of 2028.
正如特朗普先生所指出的，总统所属政党通常会在其任期第六年遭遇选举失利。这种连锁反应超出了该总统任期的范围。2006年中期选举预示了民主党在2008年的胜利，以及巴拉克·奥巴马在2009至2011年试图为美国奠定“新基础”。民主党在2014年失去参议院控制权，则预尝了特朗普先生首次获胜以及共和党在2017至2019年实现政府统一控制的滋味。
As Mr. Trump pointed out, the president’s party regularly suffers losses in the sixth year of his term. The fallout spreads beyond that presidency. The 2006 midterm election was a preview of Democratic gains in 2008 and Barack Obama’s attempts to put America on a “New Foundation” from 2009-11. The Democrats’ loss of the Senate in 2014 was a taste of Mr. Trump’s first victory and unified GOP control of government from 2017 to 2019.
因此，坚信宪法、有限政府、法治以及《独立宣言》所载自由平等原则的保守派面临严峻前景：11月3日可能预示着一个由进步派在两党中执政的时期到来，这将使美国人变得更穷、更弱、更不自由。结果可能证明，本次选举中最具预见性的话语是上个月在纽约市由众议员亚历山德拉·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯对捐赠者说出的：“因为如果你能赢，如果阿卜杜勒能在密歇根获胜，任何人都能在任何地方获胜。任何地方。”我们即将见证她是否说对了。康蒂内蒂先生是《华尔街日报》观点版“自由表达”专栏作家。
Thus conservatives who believe in the Constitution, limited government, the rule of law and the Declaration of Independence’s principles of liberty and equality confront a dire prospect: Nov. 3 may foreshadow a period of progressive governance in both parties that would leave Americans poorer, weaker and less free. It may turn out that the most prescient words of this election were uttered last month in New York City when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told donors, “Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere. Anywhere.”We are about to find out if she’s right. Mr. Continetti is a columnist for WSJ Opinion’s Free Expression.