Democrats’ midterm win can slow Trump’s climate rollback, but they cannot fully reverse it because he can still veto bills and climate is not a top voter priority.

They may use funding bills and subpoenas to protect renewables, restore climate funding, and challenge cuts to wind, solar and emissions rules, while framing action as lower costs and more jobs.

For Asia and COP31, the US remains weaker on clean tech and climate diplomacy, while China leads; the result may lift hope, but it will not restore US leadership soon.

AI generated SINGAPORE - Since returning to the White House, US President Donald Trump has waged a ruthless battle to revoke or strangle US climate regulations, reduce green investment and bully companies into rolling back net-zero emissions pledges.

That’s about to change. The dramatic Democratic victory on Nov 3 will end the era of Trump’s unchecked climate rollback. Control of both houses of Congress means the Democrats can stifle any further attempts by Trump to derail renewable energy investment or remaining emissions regulations. But don’t expect a dramatic reset on US climate policy for now.

“While majorities across the spectrum accept that climate change is real, it is not a top-tier public priority compared with cost-of-living and reliability concerns,” said Clarence Edwards, executive director of the Washington office for London-based climate policy think tank E3G.

Analysts say the Democrats will have to navigate Trump’s power to veto bills from Congress. And the long list of policy priorities facing the Democrats means they will have to choose their next steps carefully.

“It will hinge on how the Democrats pick their battles and frame the climate topics to the American public to meet their immediate concerns: economy, energy affordability and jobs,” said Putra Adhiguna, managing director of the Energy Shift Institute, a think tank focusing on Asia’s energy transition.

Still, given the Democrats’ traditional support for green energy and climate action, their strong performance in the midterms will hearten investors looking for positive signals – and the possibility that the Democrats will win the 2028 presidential election.

And what happens in the United States still matters. As the world’s largest economy and second-largest greenhouse gas polluter after China, the country's emissions have risen again, thanks to Trump’s support for the fossil fuel industry and energy-hungry data centres. Right at a time of record global temperatures and worsening climate impacts around the globe.

For Asia, however, the impacts of renewed climate action will be more nuanced as governments in the region have become more independent of the US in green investments since Trump’s abandonment of climate diplomacy and his use of punishing tariffs.

Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement and the United Nations’ main climate convention and used tariffs to slash clean-tech exports from Asia, such as solar panels made in South-east Asia. Democrats can usefully signal that they support a return to more cooperative global climate action and lower-cost green energy. Next steps to roll back Trump’s anti-climate policies.

A Democrat-controlled Congress can still halt and possibly start to reverse some of Trump’s anti-climate measures.

“The Democrats cannot reverse climate rollbacks outright as they lack the numbers to override a presidential veto. But they can bargain, and funding bills are likely their strongest lever,” said Will Nichols, Head of Climate and Resilience at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

For example, the White House will need Democratic votes to approve funding to keep the government running. They can use this leverage to push for stronger support for renewables, a return to tougher environmental standards, and restoring clean-energy and climate-resilience funding, he said.

And armed with new subpoena powers, the Democrats will be able to scrutinise attempts to roll back federal environmental and climate policies and force administration officials and business figures to testify.

Specifically, Congress could revisit Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act provisions, which accelerated the phase-out of billions of dollars of wind and solar tax credits, said Edwards.

The Democrats might also target the repeal of most Biden-era power-plant greenhouse-gas standards and the rollback of corporate fleet fuel economy standards, he added.

“Bipartisan agreement remains possible on selected energy issues; the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (introduced in the Senate on Sept 30) is the clearest near-term vehicle,” Edwards said. It would streamline permitting, require large data centres to bear more of their incremental grid costs, and address other affordability and reliability measures.

Reframing climate measures as reducing the cost of living States are also likely to move the green needle. For instance, Democratic governors in states such as Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Texas will likely advance measures focused on lower energy costs.

This includes community solar power generation, battery storage, data-centre siting and efficiency programmes. “In the long run, these state experiments will shape the political and technical environment for any federal policies,” said Edwards.

Boardrooms are also likely to appreciate greater regulatory certainty. Many large US companies maintained climate targets despite federal rollbacks, Nichols said. And they will continue to face pressure from shareholders and other investors to address the growing risks and costs of extreme weather linked to climate change. Framing the debate around how the measures can benefit the population will be key.

“To succeed, Democrats will need to step carefully, framing this as lowering the cost of living rather than as a climate imperative that remains fairly low on voters’ radars,” Nichols said.

Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, said it would be a mistake to under-estimate the extent to which the climate agenda has become politicised. It’s a view shared by others.

“As Trumpism wanes, climate activists would do well to take a page from this year’s elections to focus on the costs of global warming: Higher utility bills. Higher insurance premiums. Higher home repair bills. Higher food prices caused by droughts and heat waves,” commentator Bill Sternberg wrote in Callaway Climate Insights on Nov 5.

What it means for Asia As Trump slashed climate regulations and funding, China pressed ahead with its dominance of Asia’s clean-tech production: chiefly electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries and wind turbines. The US has dramatically curbed imports of these goods through tariffs or bans, isolating itself from the region.

The Trump administration also ended its support for renewable energy and transition programs in countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, favouring fossil fuel investments and trade instead.

This means the US is becoming an increasingly irrelevant player in the global clean-tech transition, particularly in Asia, said Li Shuo. “Beyond Tesla, which is not competitive in many sizeable Asian markets outside China, I struggle to name even one American clean-energy company that could play a meaningful role in the region.”“And do we really believe the US government will deploy its limited public finances for other countries’ energy transition?” he added.

Putra said US allies with deeper ties in clean tech, such as South Korea, might benefit from a Democrat-controlled Congress. But the revival of ASEAN solar manufacturer exports to the US was less likely because US domestic job creation remains a priority, he added.

So for now, the US remains a weaker player in Asia on clean tech, climate diplomacy and climate research, with Trump also slashing funding support for US institutions’ climate science programmes.

COP31 The midterm results come as delegates from nearly 200 nations gather in the Turkish resort of Antalya for the COP31 climate talks from Nov 9 to 20. There will be no official US delegation but US politicians and business leaders are set to attend in an unofficial capacity.

For some, the Democrats’ victory is a hopeful sign. For others, it’s a reminder of decades of US climate policy flip-flops – from George W. Bush, who rejected binding international caps on emissions and opposed the UN’s Kyoto Protocol, the precursor to the 2015 Paris Agreement, to Barack Obama, who was key to the creation of the Paris pact.

“This US domestic political change may contribute to a more hopeful atmosphere. It will not reverse the US absence, restore US leadership, or absolve others from stepping up,” said Edwards. But the strong unofficial presence in Turkey, such as members of Congress, will help to lift the mood at COP31.

“Expect American participants there to say, ‘Wait for us to be back in two years’,” said Li Shuo. “Some will welcome that and act as though the Trump years never happened. Others will simply say, ‘We’ve seen this movie many times before’.”