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医疗保健、关税——但不包括弹劾特朗普:民主党人规划未来两年的执政方向Healthcare, tariffs – but not Trump impeachment: Democrats chart next two years of power

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在底特律举行的一场大选启动集会上,与会者举着“选举民主党人”的标语牌。摄影:彭博社/盖蒂图片社Attendees hold ‘Elect Democrats’ signage during a general election kick-off rally in Detroit. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

“成本、混乱、腐败”:在近两年时间里,民主党人持续猛烈抨击唐纳德·特朗普未能解决这三大宏观政治问题后,他们在周二的中期选举中取得了巨大胜利重返权力核心,这将赋予他们对总统强有力的新杠杆。现在的问题是:他们将如何运用这份权力?

“Costs, chaos, corruption”: after almost two years spent relentlessly criticizing Donald Trump for failing to address those three, broad political concerns, Democrats won a monumental return to power in Tuesday’s midterm elections that will give them potent new leverage over the president. Now the question becomes: what will they do with it?

虽然党魁表示具体策略仍在讨论中,但所有迹象都表明,民主党将展开激进的调查与立法双重攻势,旨在为其最终提名人提供弹药,以赢得2028年总统大选。

While party leaders say their exact strategy remains under discussion, all signs point to Democrats embarking on aggressive campaigns of both investigating and lawmaking, with the aim of giving their eventual nominee the ammunition they will need to win the 2028 presidential election.

“我们将确保竞选美国总统的候选人不再被问及禁用塑料吸管之类的议题。相反,我们应该谈论我们在众议院通过、在参议院通过、并强行送到唐纳德·特朗普办公桌上的所有立法,”国会进步派核心小组主席格雷格·卡萨尔周三对记者说。

“We are going to make sure that those candidates running for president of the United States aren’t getting asked about plastic-straw bans. Instead, we should be talking about all of the legislation that we pass out of the House, pass out of the Senate, and force to Donald Trump’s desk,” Greg Casar, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told reporters on Wednesday.

他设想“每周都在众议院和参议院议场上通过民众呼吁的大胆立法”,并指出禁止哄抬物价、超级政治行动委员会(Super PACs)以及议员炒股是优先事项。“如果[特朗普]否决,那将成为候选人在2028年竞选的政纲,然后我们可以在2029年将其签署成法,”卡萨尔说。

He envisioned “passing bold legislation that people called for, every single week, off of the floor of the House and the Senate”, pointing to bans on price gouging, Super Pacs and stock trading by lawmakers as priorities. “If [Trump] vetoes it, then that is the platform upon which candidates can run in 2028, and then we can get signed into law in 2029,” Casar said.

那场大选距今仍有漫长且难以预测的两年。尽管在全国范围内赢回了多个席位,但民主党的品牌形象依然极度不受欢迎。

That election is still two, long and unpredictable years off. And despite flipping seats across the country, the Democratic party brand remains deeply unpopular.

但民主党有理由感到自信:共和党周二遭遇了灾难性的惨败,失去了把持数十年的参议院席位,以及专门划定以确保只选出共和党人的众议院席位。

But Democrats have reason to feel confident: Republicans suffered such a cataclysm Tuesday that they lost Senate seats they’d held for decades, and House seats drawn specifically to elect only Republicans.

这是50多年来执政党在中期选举中遭遇的最大失败,但民主党在国会获得的权力并非没有限制。特朗普仍将入主白宫直至2029年1月,并且可以否决未以压倒性多数通过的法案。

It was the biggest midterm defeat for an incumbent party in more than 50 years, but the power Democrats have gained in Congress is not unlimited. Trump is still set to inhabit the White House until January 2029, and can veto bills that do not pass with overwhelming support.

参议院的冗长辩论规则也依然有效——在特朗普第二个任期的前半段,民主党人曾利用这一规则阻挠共和党试图按党派路线通过的许多法案。如今形势逆转:共和党人可以用它来阻止任何在参议院未获得60票的民主党 incoming 立法。计票仍在进行中,但如果两场尚未决出的参议院选举由其候选人获胜,民主党及其盟友将拥有56个席位。

And the Senate filibuster – which Democrats used to block many bills that Republicans attempted to pass along party lines over the first half of Trump’s second term – remains in place. Now the shoe is on the other foot: Republicans can use it to stop any incoming Democratic legislation that does not have 60 votes in a chamber. Ballot counting is still ongoing, but if the two outstanding Senate races are won by their candidates, Democrats and their allies will have 56 seats.

国会即将上任的领导人已明确表示,这些障碍不会阻止他们至少尝试通过立法方案来解决他们竞选时承诺要解决的问题。

Congress’s incoming leaders have made clear those obstacles will not stop them from at least trying to enact legislative solutions to the problems they campaigned on fixing.

“我们向全国做出了承诺,要为美国人争取一个负担得起的美国,我们打算兑现它,”哈基姆·杰弗里斯说。新年过后新一届国会召开时,他将成为众议院议长。

“We made a promise to the country that we would fight for an affordable America, and we intend to keep it,” said Hakeem Jeffries, who is set to become speaker of the House of Representatives when the new Congress convenes after the new year.

他将重新实施《平价医疗法案》(ACA)医保计划的保费税收抵免,以及撤销共和党去年批准的医疗补助保险计划削减,列为优先事项。杰弗里斯还承诺推动立法行动,促使特朗普取消其关税,并结束与伊朗的冲突。

He named as priorities reimplementing premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act (ACA) health plans as well as undoing the cuts to the Medicaid insurance program that Republicans approved last year. Jeffries also promised legislative action to make Trump undo his tariffs, and end the conflict with Iran.

阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与妻子萨拉·朱卡库医生庆祝他在密歇根州击败迈克·罗杰斯。摄影:杰夫·科瓦尔斯基/法新社/盖蒂图片社Abdul El-Sayed and his wife Dr Sarah Jukaku celebrate his victory against Mike Rogers in Michigan. Photograph: Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

“我们所做的一切都对应着三项承诺,正是我们竞选时提出的那三项,从批评转变为待办清单:降低成本、让你的政府为你服务、清理腐败,”预计将成为下一任参议院多数党领袖的查克·舒默在自由派智库美国进步中心的一次活动中表示。

“Everything we do maps onto three promises, the very same three we ran on, turning from a critique into a to-do list: lower costs, make your government work for you, clean up the corruption,” Chuck Schumer, who is expected to be the next Senate majority leader, said during an appearance at the Center for American Progress, a liberal thinktank.

似乎不在议程上的事项之一是:第三次弹劾特朗普。在他的第一任期内,参议院共和党人在两次弹劾后都挽救了这位总统,第一次是因利用援助打击政敌的指控,第二次则是在他支持者于1月6日冲击国会大厦之后。

One thing that does not seem to be on the table: impeaching Trump, for a third time. During his first term, Senate Republicans rescued the president after two impeachments, first on charges of leveraging aid to undermine his political rivals, and then again after his supporters attacked the Capitol on January 6.

尽管民主党人指责特朗普在第二任期内经常违反法律和宪法,但他们似乎清醒地认识到共和党人不愿迫使总统下台。

While Democrats have accused Trump of violating the law and the constitution regularly during his second term, they appear clear-eyed about Republicans’ willingness to force the president from office.

“我没有一位众议院民主党核心小组成员跟我谈过弹劾,”杰弗里斯说。“我们一直坚定不移地专注于可负担性和问责制。”说到后者,民主党人的主意不少。在公开警告潜在调查对象“请律师”以后,将领导众议院调查监督小组的罗伯特·加西亚本周告诉记者,预计将就国土安全部(DHS)合同腐败指控、议员股票交易、企业牟取暴利以及政府公布与落魄金融家杰弗里·爱泼斯坦有关的档案等展开调查。

“I haven’t had a single member of the House Democratic Caucus talk to me about impeachment,” Jeffries said. “We’ve been relentlessly focused on affordability and on accountability.”When it comes to the latter, Democrats have no shortage of ideas. After publicly issuing a warning to potential targets to “lawyer up,” Robert Garcia, who will lead the investigative House oversight panel, told reporters this week to expect inquiries related to allegations of corruption in Department of Homeland Security (DHS) contracting, stock trading by lawmakers, corporate profiteering and the government’s release of files related to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

预计将领导众议院司法委员会的杰米·拉斯金指出,他已向特朗普政府及其他方面发出了200多份信息要求,在谈到明年将调查谁时他说“回去读读我的信”。这些信件不具备法律效力,因为他当时处于国会少数党地位,但这种情况很快就会改变——一旦民主党明年掌握委员会主导权,他们就可以发出传票。

Noting he’d sent more than 200 demands for information to the Trump administration and others, Jamie Raskin, who is expected to lead the House judiciary committee, said “go back and read my letters” when discussing who he would investigate next year. His letters carried no legal force, because he was in the congressional minority, but that will soon change – once the Democrats take committee gavels next year, they can issue subpoenas.

在解决选民在选举中高度关注的可负担性问题上,该党也不乏主意。

The party also doesn’t lack for ideas when it comes to addressing concerns about affordability, a major issue for voters in the elections.

正是民主党要求延长《平价医疗法案》(ACA)补贴,导致了去年创纪录的长时间政府停摆,他们的候选人在竞选中也突出警告即将到来的医疗补助削减。

It was Democrats’ demands to extend the ACA subsidies that led to the record-long government shutdown last year, and their candidates made warnings about the impending Medicaid cuts prominent in their campaigns.

即将离任的共和党国会多数派迄今拒绝了针对这两个问题的解决尝试,但民主党人确实在劝说多数派投票支持旨在结束与伊朗冲突的战争权力决议方面取得了一些成果——其中一项措施获得通过,但总统迄今置之不理。

The outgoing Republican congressional majorities have so far rejected attempts to address either issue, but Democrats did have some luck coaxing the majority to vote for war powers resolutions intended to end the conflict with Iran – one measure did pass, but the president has thus far ignored it.

“特朗普有能力阻挠我们为美国家庭降低成本、铲除华盛顿腐败、结束国内外街头混乱的努力,”舒默承认。

“Trump has the ability to block our efforts to lower costs for American families, root out corruption in Washington, end the chaos in our streets and overseas,” Schumer acknowledged.

“但如果他那样做,我毫不怀疑美国人民将像在大选中那样,惩罚他和他的政党。”迄今为止,无法在2028年再次参选的特朗普,在表示愿与民主党合作、以及在社交媒体上挑衅性地发布一张印有“Veto”(否决)字样的红帽子图片之间摇摆不定。

“But if he does that, I have no doubt the American people will rebuke him and his party just like they did in the election.”So far, Trump, who cannot run again in 2028, has oscillated between saying he’d be willing to work with Democrats, and defiantly posting on social media an image of a red cap with the word “Veto” written on it.

民主党在中期选举中的胜利,是在有时令人痛苦的初选之后取得的,那些初选凸显了党内左派与中间派的分歧,以及在对以色列援助等争议性问题上的分歧。

The Democratic victories in the midterms came only after at-times anguished primaries that underscored the divides between the left and centers in the party, and over contentious issues like aid to Israel.

胜选后,该党各意识形态派系的领袖们表现出团结合作的基调——这可能得益于一个事实:民主党预计将在参众两院都拥有很大的多数优势,使得党内斗争的影响力可能会减弱。

In the wake of their wins, leaders of the party’s ideological factions have taken tones of unity and cooperation – which could be aided by the fact that the Democratic majorities in both the Senate and House are expected to be so large that intraparty fights could be less impactful.

领导中间派“新民主党联盟”新任议员的克里斯滕·麦克唐纳·里维特承认,在医疗保健这一全党的标志性议题上,“民众想要大变革”。

Kristen McDonald Rivet, who leads freshman lawmakers on the centrist New Democrat Coalition, acknowledged that when it comes to healthcare – a marquee issue for everyone in the party – “people want big change”.

“有人的做法是‘全民医保’。也有人谈论‘愿者全民医保’,”麦克唐纳·里维特对记者说。

“Some people’s approach to that is Medicare for all. Others are talking about Medicare for all who want it,” McDonald Rivet told reporters.

“解决问题的方法有各种各样,但我实际上并不认为这是与党团其他成员交锋的地方。我们将就医疗保健能做什么大事进行辩论,这实际上是一件令人难以置信地充满希望的事。”

“There’s all kinds of ways to solve the solution, but I actually do not see that as a place of combat with other members of the caucus. It’s actually an incredibly hopeful thing that we are going to debate what big thing we can do around healthcare.”

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