民主党周二取得压倒性胜利，打乱了人们对2028年参议院选举版图的传统认知。信心大增的党内领袖认为大有可为，正着眼于在一个突然之间似乎一切皆有可能的版图中扩大多数党优势。“我们在这次选举中获胜的一些州，将为我们在2028年扩大多数党优势提供新机遇——爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、卡罗来纳两州等等，”参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默（纽约州）周四在一场活动中表示。
Democrats’ sweeping victory Tuesday has scrambled conventional wisdom around the 2028 Senate map. Emboldened party leaders see the world as their oyster and are looking ahead to expanding their majority with a map where suddenly anything seems possible. “Some of the very same states where we won this election will offer new opportunities to expand our majority in 2028 — Iowa, Kansas, the Carolinas and more,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) said during an event Thursday.
“我们需要从2027年开始着手物色人选，以巩固我们在获胜州份的地位，在这些地区建设党的基础设施，并继续将版图拓展到新的州份，”舒默补充道。
"We need to start identifying now in 2027, to solidify our position in the states we won and build our party infrastructure in those areas and continue to expand the map into new states,” Schumer added.
2028年面临连任的民主党参议员中，只有三人来自摇摆州：佐治亚州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州。民主党周二在所有这三个州均取得大胜。在现任议员面临连任的蓝州或紫州，民主党也处于强势地位：加利福尼亚州、俄勒冈州、华盛顿州、科罗拉多州、内华达州、伊利诺伊州、夏威夷州、纽约州以及新英格兰地区的数个州。
There are only three Democratic senators up for reelection in 2028 that are from battleground states: Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Democrats won big in all three of them Tuesday. The party is also strongly positioned in blue or purple states where an incumbent is up for reelection: California, Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, Hawaii, New York and several New England states.
与此同时，共和党面临更艰难的战局，曾被视为稳操胜券的红州席位可能不再安全。在民主党实现反转后，共和党需在卡罗来纳两州、爱荷华州和堪萨斯州捍卫仅有的参议院席位。同样，在民主党赢得全州性选举后，共和党还将不得不在威斯康星州和印第安纳州捍卫席位。随着计票工作继续，民主党在阿拉斯加州仍有机会击败参议员丹·沙利文（共和党）。
Meanwhile, Republicans have a steeper battle, and seats once thought as safely red may not be anymore. They’re defending singular Senate seats in both Carolinas, Iowa and Kansas after Democratic flips. Similarly, they will have to defend seats in Wisconsin and Indiana after Democrats won statewide. Democrats remain within striking distance in Alaska of unseating Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) as the vote tabulating process continues.
参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基（共和党）将于两年后在该州寻求连任。虽然共和党在佛罗里达州守住了阵地，但民主党在阳光州取得显著进展，该州在2028年可能成为竞争激烈的战场。
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is up for reelection there in two years. While Republicans held serve in Florida, Democrats made significant inroads in the Sunshine State, and it could be competitive in 2028.
民主党参议院竞选委员会发言人汤米·加西亚态度没那么乐观，但在一份声明中表示，民主党已经扭转了“艰难的选情地图”。“我们拥有了令人难以置信的候选人，他们开展了强有力的竞选活动，激光般聚焦于选民最关心的问题，现在他们将利用在参议院的多数席位，为降低开支和铲除腐败而战，”加西亚说。为了在未来两年取得成功并避免陷阱，操盘手们表示，全国性民主党组织需要像没有任何州是禁区一样进行投入，尤其是在南方。
Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was less bullish but said in a statement that Democrats had transformed "a difficult map.”“We had incredible candidates who ran strong campaigns laser-focused on the issues that matter most to voters, and now they will use their majority in the Senate to fight for lower costs and to root out corruption,” Garcia said. To succeed over the next two years and avoid pitfalls, operatives say national Democratic organizations need to spend like no state is off limits, especially in the South.
两个卡罗来纳州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、得克萨斯州和密西西比州在本轮周期中竞争极其激烈。除佛罗里达州外，民主党在所有这些州都赢得了参议院席位，而截至截稿时，密西西比州的竞选过于胶着，无法宣布结果。南卡罗来纳州民主党主席克里斯塔尔·斯潘表示，近20年来民主党首次在该州获胜，将使招募候选人在下一轮周期挑战参议员蒂姆·斯科特（共和党）变得更容易。
Both Carolinas, Florida, Georgia, Texas and Mississippi were extremely competitive this cycle. Democrats won Senate seats in each of them except Florida, while Mississippi’s race was too close to call by press time. Christale Spain, South Carolina Democratic Party chair, said a Democrat winning the state for the first time in nearly 20 years will make it easier to recruit candidates to challenge Sen. Tim Scott (R) next cycle.
但她表示，全国党部需要投入资源以巩固来之不易的成功。“我认为，为了让我们复制周二晚的成绩，甚至做得更好，我们将不得不获得大量的全国性投入，”斯潘说。“作为州党部，我们学会了以少博多，但为了保持这种势头，我们必须获得除民主党全国委员会（DNC）以外其他全国性组织的投入，”斯潘说。“他们一直是很好的合作伙伴，但我们将不得不看到更多实质性的、持续的全国性投入。”
But she said the national party will need to devote resources to maintain its newfound success. “I think that in order for us to duplicate or even do even better than we did Tuesday night was that we're going to have to have a lot of national investment,” Spain said. “We’ve learned as a state party to do more with less, but in order to continue this momentum, we've got to have investment from other national organizations other than just the DNC [Democratic National Committee],” Spain said. “They've been a great partner, but we're going to have to see just more substantial, sustained national investment.”
佛罗里达州的民主党人也在主张，全国性投入本可以帮助他们走得更远：他们在仍未赢得州长选举或参议院选举的情况下，打破了共和党在全州范围内的绝对超级多数。现任共和党参议员佛罗里达州的阿什利·穆迪在周二的特别选举中击败安吉·尼克松，将接任马可·鲁比奥的剩余任期，但她必须在2028年再次当选才能完成一个完整任期。
Democrats in Florida are also making the case that national investment would have helped them get even further: They broke the GOP’s statewide supermajority while still falling short of winning the gubernatorial race or the Senate race. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ashley Moody (Fla.), who defeated Angie Nixon on Tuesday in a special election to finish the remainder of Marco Rubio’s term, will have to be elected again in 2028 to serve a full term.
尼克松表示，她为两年后再次挑战穆迪留有余地。佛罗里达州民主党主席妮基·弗里德说，她一直在宣传佛罗里达州需要更多全国性的资金和关注，民主党才有机会在2028年获胜。“我认为从观察其他州的选情得出的最大启示是，所有实现翻盘的州都有全国性的存在感和全国性的资源，而人们直接抛弃了我们，所以我们不得不靠自己摆脱这个困境，”弗里德说。
Nixon said she is keeping the door open to challenging Moody again in two years. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said she’s been spreading the word that Florida needs more national money and attention for Democrats to have a shot at 2028. “I think the biggest takeaway from looking at the rest of the map is that all the states that flipped had national presence, national resources, and people just abandoned us, and so we had to fight to get out of this mess by ourselves,” Fried said.
这种投资也是民主党在北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州取得成功的部分原因，这两个州曾被认为是民主党最艰难的战场之一。一年前，大多数选举专家认为北卡罗来纳州的参议院竞选将是本周期最具竞争力的竞选之一。但在最后几个月，很明显民主党籍前州长罗伊·库珀极有可能获胜，全国性团体开始将资金转移到别处。库珀在该州广为人知，且从未输过选举。
That kind of investment is part of how Democrats succeeded in races in North Carolina and Georgia, once thought to be among the toughest for Democrats. A year ago, most election experts thought North Carolina’s Senate race would be one of the most competitive in the cycle. But in the final months, it became clear that Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper was likely to win, and national groups began shifting money elsewhere. Cooper is well known in the state and has never lost an election.
他的竞选活动高度聚焦于“让东西更便宜”这一口号，并让库珀远离新闻头条。“无论全国媒体周围漂浮着什么光鲜的诱饵，这始终是关于让这成为一场以北卡罗来纳州为中心的竞选，”库珀的竞选经理杰夫·艾伦说。“对我来说，这也是一个启示，因为它也确保我们永远不会忘记，北卡罗来纳州的核心本质上是一个五五开的州。”
His campaign focused heavily on its “Make Stuff Cost Less” slogan and kept Cooper out of the headlines. “No matter what shiny objects were floating around in the national media, this was always about making this a North Carolina-centric campaign,” said Jeff Allen, Cooper’s campaign manager. “And so, to me, that's one of the takeaways because it also made sure that we never forgot that North Carolina, at its core, is a 50-50 state.”
艾伦说，两年后有足够的空间采取类似策略来击败参议员泰德·巴德（共和党-北卡罗来纳州）。他引用了9月份AARP的一项民调，显示巴德的支持率为28%。“泰德·巴德在这个州不受欢迎，我认为北卡罗来纳州的共和党人知道这一点，”艾伦说。
Allen said there’s plenty of room to run a similar play to unseat Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) in two years. He cited an AARP poll from September that showed Budd’s approval rating at 28 percent. “Ted Budd is not well liked in this state, and North Carolina Republicans, I think, know that,” Allen said.
“我认为我们确实有机会翻转这个席位，显然我们必须继续探索2028年及以后的最佳路径，但我认为我们能从这一选举周期中学到很多东西。”佐治亚州是另一个今年竞争程度低于预期的州。现任参议员乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff，民主党）在竞选伊始，当2024年“红色浪潮”仍显威势之时，被认为是参议院中最脆弱的参议员。
“I think there is a real opportunity to flip this seat, and we've obviously got to continue figuring out what the best path is for ‘28 and down the line, but I think that we have a lot that we can learn from this cycle.”Georgia was another state that turned out less competitive this year than expected. Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator in the chamber at the outset of the campaign, when the 2024 “red wave” still loomed large.
但奥索夫以近20个百分点的优势获胜。然而，尽管民主党寄予厚望，也有共和党瞄准的连任目标。在俄亥俄州，前参议员谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown，民主党）即将重夺一个参议院席位，但仅为两年。共和党在2024年成功将他击败，合适的候选人可能再次做到这一点。佐治亚州的另一个参议院席位，由参议员拉斐尔·沃诺克（Raphael Warnock，民主党）持有，可能是共和党在2028年争取翻盘的较好机会之一。
But Ossoff won by nearly 20 points. Yet for all the Democratic hopes, there are Republican targets up for reelection, too. In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is about to retake a Senate seat, but only for two years. Republicans successfully ousted him in 2024, and the right candidate could do so again. Georgia’s other Senate seat, held by Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), could be one of the GOP’s better hopes for a pickup in 2028.
但这不会容易。佐治亚州共和党策略师瑞安·马奥尼（Ryan Mahoney）表示，沃诺克可能很难击败，因为他是一位纪律严明的竞选者，拥有强大的选民服务。此外，沃诺克许多“隐私丑闻”，包括他作为牧师时布道中可能引发争议的言论，已在2020年对阵凯利·勒夫勒（Kelly Loeffler）的竞选中曝光。“所有将要针对沃诺克说的事情以前都说过，而且没起作用，”当时担任勒夫勒通讯主任的马奥尼说。
But it won’t be easy. Warnock could be tough to beat, said Ryan Mahoney, a Republican strategist in Georgia, since he’s a disciplined campaigner with strong constituent services. In addition, much of Warnock’s “dirty laundry,” including potentially controversial statements from his sermons as a pastor, came out during his 2020 campaign against Kelly Loeffler. “All of the things that are going to be said about Warnock have been said before and didn't work,” said Mahoney, who was Loeffler’s communications director at the time.
“所以我认为共和党需要希望他不像奥索夫那样精准、有战略且有意图，因为他以一个非常有利的位置进入连任竞选，人们不认为他像他内心深处实际上那样进步。”尽管如此，马奥尼表示，如果民主党在联邦或州层面将他们新获得的多数地位推向过远，共和党将会有更多机会。“民主党在佐治亚州没有授权，如果他们自以为有，并表现得好像有，他们就会输，”马奥尼说。
“So I think for Republicans they do need to hope that he isn't as precise and strategic and intentional as Ossoff, because he goes into reelection in a really good spot with people not thinking he's as progressive as he actually is deep down.”Still, Mahoney said if Democrats take their newfound majority too far at the federal or state levels there will be more opportunities for Republicans. “Democrats do not have a mandate in Georgia, and if they believe that they do, and if they act like they do, they will lose,” Mahoney said.