共和党最早可能在2028年大选中重新夺回参议院的控制权，但这前提是该党必须在竞争激烈的选战中取得一系列关键胜利——在周二晚间民主党获得压倒性胜利之后，这种可能性看起来还很遥远。
Republican control of the Senate could return as soon as the 2028 general election, but only if the party can pull off a series of crucial victories in competitive races, a possibility that seems distant following Tuesday night's devastating Democratic sweep.
截至发稿时，民主党人和与他们党团合作的无党派人士已确保获得54个参议院席位，随着密西西比州和阿拉斯加州选举结果的宣布，这一总数还可能上升至多56个。假设共和党能在2028年保住副总统职位（这远不能保证），他们将需要在该选举周期中至少翻转四个席位才能夺回参议院。
As of publication, Democrats and independents who caucus with them have secured 54 Senate seats, a total that could grow to as many as 56 pending election calls in Mississippi and Alaska. Assuming Republicans hold the vice presidency in 2028, far from a guarantee, they would need to flip at least four seats during that election cycle to win the Senate back.
尽管如果该党能恢复其典型的全国表现基准，2028年将有充足的共和党翻盘机会，但几个由共和党人把持且易受攻击的席位可能会使他们夺回参议院的努力变得复杂。
While there are ample pick-up opportunities for Republicans in 2028 if the party can return to its typical national performance benchmarks, several vulnerable GOP-held seats could complicate their efforts to retake the upper chamber.
例如，艾奥瓦州参议员查克·格拉斯利已于9月年满93岁，他面临着是否在2028年竞选连任的决定。届时，共和党人将在艾奥瓦州捍卫他的席位，而民主党人乔什·图雷克刚刚在该州以大约4个百分点的优势击败了共和党人阿什利·欣森。他在那之前离任也可能让艾奥瓦州即将上任的民主党州长有机会任命一名临时接替者。
Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, for instance, turned 93 in September and faces a decision about whether to seek another term in 2028, when Republicans will be defending his seat in a state where Democrat Josh Turek just defeated Republican Ashley Hinson by roughly four percentage points. His departure before then could also give Iowa's incoming Democratic governor the opportunity to appoint a temporary replacement.
另一种可能使共和党重返多数党之路更加不确定的情况是，波多黎各和华盛顿特区作为正式州加入联邦。此举很可能需要由民主党领导的参议院废除或克服立法阻挠议事（filibuster），代表更温和或竞争激烈州的议员可能会对此退缩，同时也需要众议院的支持以及总统批准或足够推翻否决的票数。
Another possibility that could make the GOP's path back to a majority even more uncertain is the admission of Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., to the union as full states. Such a move would likely require the Democratic-led Senate to abolish or overcome the legislative filibuster, something lawmakers representing more moderate or competitive states may balk at, as well as support in the House and either presidential approval or enough votes to override a veto.
即便阻挠议事被废除，总统唐纳德·特朗普也可以否决入州法案。民主党目前缺乏推翻此类否决所需的票数。
Even if the filibuster is done away with, President Donald Trump could veto admittance bills. Democrats currently lack the numbers to override such a veto.
不过，如果共和党人在2028年输掉白宫，民主党人可能会有更清晰的道路来推动波多黎各和华盛顿特区成为联邦州，此举将增加四个参议院席位，并可能使共和党人夺回该院的努力变得更加复杂，尽管仍将存在重大的政治和法律障碍。
If Republicans lose the White House in 2028, however, Democrats could have a clearer path to advancing statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C., a move that would add four Senate seats and potentially complicate Republican efforts to win back the chamber, though significant political and legal obstacles would remain.
假设这些情况都不会发生，民主党人将在2028年保卫六个参议院席位，这些席位可能为共和党人提供潜在的翻盘机会。
Assuming none of that happens, Democrats will be defending six Senate seats that could offer Republicans potential pick-up opportunities in 2028.
当年，共和党人在新罕布什尔州、内华达州、亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、宾夕法尼亚州和俄亥俄州将拥有翻盘机会。然而，他们将被迫保卫威斯康星州、艾奥瓦州和北卡罗来纳州易受攻击的参议院席位。经历了显著蓝移的印第安纳州也将在2028年迎来一个有争议的参议院席位，而内布拉斯加州在周二由无党派人士丹·奥斯本向共和党参议员皮特·里基茨发起了竞争激烈但未成功的挑战，该州在2030年之前将不会举行另一场例行的参议院选举。
Republicans will have pick-up opportunities in New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Ohio that year. They will, however, be forced to defend vulnerable Senate seats in Wisconsin, Iowa and North Carolina. Indiana, which saw a significant blue shift, also has a Senate seat up for contention in 2028, while Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn mounted a competitive but unsuccessful challenge to Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts on Tuesday, will not hold another regularly scheduled Senate election until 2030.
虽然如果策略得当，2028年可能会为共和党人带来多数席位，但另一次规模与2026年相当的失利可能会使民主党人危险地接近启动终结辩论和对抗冗长辩论所需的60票门槛。
While 2028 could deliver Republicans a majority if they play their cards right, another defeat on the scale of 2026 could put the Democratic Party dangerously close to the 60-vote threshold necessary to invoke cloture and counter a filibuster.
传统基金会行动组织政府事务主任奇普·怀特对福克斯新闻数字频道表示：“这可能是 unlikely（不太可能）的，但我确实认为它是可行的。我们在2028年完全有可能迎来一个类似于民主党人在周二度过的夜晚。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是那场选举，我们在周二经历的选举向我们表明，在政治中，两年是一个非常非常长的时间。我认为，如果你在2024年对任何人说这就是2028年发生的事情，他们大概不会相信。”
"It may be unlikely, but I do think it's feasible," Heritage Action government relations director Chip Wyatt told Fox News Digital. "We're just as capable of having a night like the Democrats had on Tuesday in 2028. If anything, that election, the election we had on Tuesday has shown us that two years is a very, very long time in politics. think if you had told anybody in 2024 that this is what happened in 2028, they probably wouldn't believe you."
怀特认为，为了让共和党人在2028年迎来一个美好的夜晚，保守派必须专注于负担能力问题，而民主党人则允许其党内边缘派系左右其政策议程，从而超越了他们的民意授权。
For Republicans to have a good night in 2028, Wyatt argued that conservatives would have to focus on affordability issues while Democrats overstep their mandate by allowing the fringes of their party to dictate its policy agenda.
得克萨斯州参议员泰德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）在对周二晚间的选举结果作出反应时，也采取了类似的立场。
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz took a similar line in reacting to Tuesday night's election results.
“我们将重建为一个真正的蓝领政党，不是通过拥抱社会主义，而是通过成为真正的自由市场保守派。这是我们最初打造得州经济奇迹的方式，我们也同样将建设和重建美国，”他说。“当狂热分子们走得太远时——他们会的，我们将随时准备引领方向，走向自由、繁荣、安全保障以及常识。我们将迎来美国自由的新曙光。”
"We will rebuild as a true blue-collar party, not by embracing socialism, but by being real free-market conservatives. The way we built the Texas economic miracle in the first place, and we will build and rebuild America as well," he said. "When the zealots overreach, and they will, we will stand ready to lead in the direction of freedom, of prosperity, of safety and security and common sense.
2030年的选举中，共和党人新增席位的机会略少一些，需要防守的州数量相当。虽然共和党人在亚利桑那州、内华达州、威斯康星州和密歇根州拥有赢得席位的机会，但他们也将被迫防守得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州的席位。
We will return to a new dawn of freedom in America." 2030 features slightly fewer pick-ups for the GOP with a comparable number of states to defend. While Republicans will have pick-up opportunities in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, they will also be forced to defend seats in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
2032年的选举将轮空与2026年相同例行改选的参议院席位，这为共和党人提供了又一次机会，去夺回他们在今年失手的深红州，例如堪萨斯州和南卡罗来纳州。然而，从历史上看，一些温和派民主党人曾在通常属红州的地区成功保住全州级别的职位，这使得回归远非板上钉钉。
The 2032 election will feature the same regularly scheduled Senate seats contested in 2026, giving Republicans another opportunity to retake deep-red states they blundered this year, such as Kansas and South Carolina. Historically, however, some moderate Democrats have managed to hang on to state-wide offices in typically red states, making a reversion far from a certainty.
例如，前西弗吉尼亚州参议员乔·曼钦（Joe Manchin）就在这个深红州成功经受住了共和党人的多次挑战。同样，堪萨斯州和肯塔基州也有民主党籍州长，他们在受到全国关注的竞选活动中经受住了共和党人的挑战。
Former West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, for instance, managed to survive multiple GOP challenges in the deep-red state. Kansas and Kentucky, similarly, have Democratic governors that survived Republican challenges in races that received national attention.
尽管许多共和党人、甚至一些民主党人认为，自由派在深红州赢得席位可能只是昙花一现，但怀亚特警告称不要盲目自满。
While many Republicans, and even some Democrats, have suggested liberal pick-ups in deep red states could be one-cycle wonders, Wyatt cautioned against complacency.
怀亚特说：“我们应该始终假设政客们希望赢得连任，因此最近当选参议员的深红州民主党人将希望保住他们的席位，因此他们在投票方式以及他们提出的法案类型方面将非常具有策略性。”
"We should always assume the politicians want to get re-elected and so the senators in the deep red states that have been recently elected as Democrats are going to want to keep their seats and so they're going to be very strategic in how they vote and in what kind of bills they're introducing," Wyatt said.
怀亚特说：“在其中一些深红州，[民主党人]要守住这些席位将是困难的……当然，我刚才已经说过，两年是很长的时间，六年则是更长的时间。因此，谁知道我们在2032年会面对什么样的政治格局，但在许多这样的州，共和党人肯定会以强劲的优势开局……但盲目乐观为时尚早。”
"In some of these deep red states, it's going to be difficult for [Democrats] to hold on to these seats ... Now granted, I've already said two years is a long time, six years is an even longer time. So who knows what kind of political landscape we're looking at in 2032 but Republicans should definitely start off with a strong advantage in many of these states ...
选举政治出了名地难以预测。例如，在2024年时，没有人会预料到南卡罗来纳州或堪萨斯州会在2026年将民主党人送入参议院。共和党通往参议院多数席位的道路——或者未能获得多数席位——同样可能会出人意料。
But it's never wise to counter chickens before they hatch." Electoral politics is famously unpredictable. Nobody in 2024, for instance, envisioned South Carolina or Kansas sending Democrats to the Senate in 2026. It is possible that the Republican path to a Senate majority, or lack thereof, will be comparably surprising.