
包括摩根士丹利和瑞银在内的华尔街券商认为,上周 AI 板块的暴跌反应过度,理由是民主党控制国会后对数据中心建设实施极端监管的风险不大可能成真。
Wall Street brokerages including Morgan Stanley and UBS called last week's rout in the AI trade overdone, arguing that the risks of extreme regulation of data center developments under a Democrat-controlled Congress are unlikely to play out.
它们反而指出,Anthropic (ANT.O) 的首次公开募股 (IPO) 以及英伟达 (NVDA.O) 即将发布的季度财报,才是可能对 AI 交易产生更大影响的事件。
They instead pointed to Anthropic's (ANT.O) IPO and Nvidia's (NVDA.O) upcoming quarterly earnings as events likely to have a bigger impact on the AI trade.
英伟达将于 11 月 17 日美股收盘后发布财报,预计其数据中心收入将环比增长逾 12%。
Nvidia is set to report earnings after the markets close on November 17 and is expected to report a more than 12% rise in data center revenue on a quarterly basis.
摩根士丹利表示,此次抛售看起来反应过度,最终的影响将是部分项目从 2028 年推迟到 2029 年,而非资本开支故事的脱轨。
Morgan Stanley said the selloff looked overdone and that the ultimate impact would be a push-out of some projects from 2028 to 2029, rather than a derailing of the capex story.
分析师在研报中写道:“这有可能拉长 AI 资本开支周期,其中的积极因素包括:数据中心供应链供需再平衡更加平稳、信用前景改善,以及算力租赁费率上升。”
"This has the potential to elongate the AI capex cycle, which has positives including: a smoother supply-demand rebalancing across the data center supply chain, improved credit outlook, and higher lease rates for compute," the analysts said in a note.
该券商表示,建议“逢低买入”,并继续看好包括亚马逊 (AMZN.O)、Meta Platforms (META.O) 和 Alphabet (GOOGL.O) 在内的 AI 超大规模企业。
The brokerage said it recommended "buying the drop" and remained positive on AI hyperscalers including Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Meta Platforms (META.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O).
它还表示,在英伟达 (NVDA.O) 和博通 (AVGO.O) 等半导体公司、希捷 (STX.O) 和西部数据 (WDC.O) 等数据存储公司,以及 Coherent (COHR.N) 和 Lumentum (LITE.O) 等光网络公司中看到机会。
It also said it saw opportunities in semiconductor firms Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Broadcom (AVGO.O), data storage firms Seagate (STX.O) and Western Digital (WDC.O) and optical networking firms Coherent (COHR.N) and Lumentum (LITE.O).
汇丰在研报中表示,正利用上周的回调再度增加股票敞口,偏向美股和亚洲科技股。它视 Anthropic (ANT.O) 的 IPO 为未来几周的主要催化剂。
Brokerage HSBC said in a note that it is using last week's correction to increase its exposure to equities again, leaning into tech stocks in the US and Asia. It views AI lab Anthropic's (ANT.O) IPO as the main catalyst in the coming weeks.
杰富瑞股票分析师 Jane Gibbons 将 11 月 5 日的抛售视为“反应性”抛售,而非基本面重置;瑞银分析师则认为,市场对 AI 政治风险、AI 信用风险和 AI 支出的看法已过度悲观。
Jefferies equity analyst Jane Gibbons viewed the November 5 selloff as "reactionary", rather than a fundamental reset, while UBS analysts said markets had become too negative on AI political risk, AI credit risks and AI spending.
吉本斯在一份报告中写道,历史上,标普500指数(.SPX)单日跌幅超过4%之后,往往会出现强劲的后续回报,六个月后标普500指数上涨11.9%,十二个月后上涨超过20%。
Gibbons wrote in a note that historically, daily S&P 500 (.SPX) declines of more than 4% have been followed by strong forward returns, with the S&P 500 up 11.9% over six months and up more than 20% over 12 months.