Investing.com——以下是本周人工智能（AI）领域最大的分析师动态。
Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.
Yardeni表示，AI抛售潮是买入良机。雅德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）向投资者表示，周四盘中的抛售潮代表了一个买入良机，并认为针对数据中心的政治阻力只是AI热潮中的减速带，而非死胡同。
AI rout is a buying opportunity, Yardeni says Yardeni Research told investors the selloff in Thursday’s session represents a buying opportunity, arguing that political backlash against data centers is a speed bump for the AI boom rather than a roadblock.
该公司写道：“自9月15日以来，我们一直建议在股市中保持谨慎，直至中期选举结束，”并补充称，该公司曾预计周二选举结束后会出现买入机会。受空头回补推动，股市周三反弹，随后暴跌；标准普尔500指数大跌4.4%，创下自2025年4月关税冲击以来的最糟糕单日表现，纳斯达克指数则下挫5.5%，陷入回调区间。
"Since September 15, we’ve counseled proceeding with caution in the stock market through the midterm elections," the firm wrote, adding that it had anticipated buying opportunities after Tuesday’s elections. Stocks rallied Wednesday, driven by short covering, but then plunged, with the S&P 500’s 4.4% decline its worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock and the Nasdaq’s 5.5% drop pushing it into correction territory.
Yardeni表示：“我们曾警告民主党大胜后可能随之而来的冷水，如今姗姗来迟。”
"The cold shower we warned might follow a democratic sweep arrived late," Yardeni said.
周四，投资者开始“计入民主党大胜对经济金蛋的影响：即AI投资热潮”。Yardeni指出，对数据中心的阻力日益增加，并援引美国全国广播公司（NBC）的出口民调显示，76%的选民反对在其社区新建此类设施。
On Thursday, investors began "discounting the implications of the Democratic sweep for the economy’s golden goose: the AI investment boom." Yardeni pointed to growing backlash against data centers, citing an NBC exit poll showing 76% of voters opposed new facilities in their communities.
Yardeni表示：“也许最重要的是，占2028年美国计划新增数据中心近30%的得克萨斯州，选举吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）为州长，此前她承诺暂停新的审批。”高盛（Goldman Sachs）估计，面临可能限制措施的州约占美国计划数据中心容量的45%。
"Perhaps most consequentially, Texas, which accounts for nearly 30% of planned US data center additions in 2028, elected Gina Hinojosa as governor after she promised to halt new approvals," Yardeni said. Goldman Sachs estimates that states facing possible restrictions account for around 45% of planned U.S. data center capacity.
尽管如此，Yardeni认为，这种阻力以及资金和物理瓶颈“只是减速带”，且抛售过度。“数据中心将会建成，尽管速度会有所放缓。减速带应当能防止AI热潮发展过快而在下一个弯道翻车，”该公司表示。
Still, Yardeni believes the backlash, alongside financial and physical bottlenecks, are "just speed bumps" and that the selling is overdone. "Data centers will get built, albeit at a slower pace. Speed bumps should prevent the AI boom from moving too fast and crashing around the next curve," it said.
“这就是为什么我们将周四的抛售视为买入机会。”分析师因担忧与Lumentum的全股票交易而下调美满电子评级 本周早些时候，TD高诚（TD Cowen）和美国银行（Bank of America）双双下调了美满电子科技（Marvell Technology）的评级，理由是对这家芯片制造商全股票收购Lumentum感到担忧。
"That’s why we view Thursday’s sell off as a buying opportunity." Analysts downgrade Marvell on concerns over all-stock deal with Lumentum Earlier this week, TD Cowen and Bank of America have both downgraded Marvell Technology, citing concerns about the chipmaker’s all-stock acquisition of Lumentum.
TD高诚将美满电子的评级从“买入”下调至“持有”，并将其目标价从350美元大幅下调至175美元。分析师肖恩·奥洛林（Sean O’Loughlin）预计，该交易在2028年（即第一年）将使每股收益（EPS）摊薄中个位数百分比，并担心这笔交易可能发生在光学微周期见顶或接近见顶的时候。
TD Cowen cut Marvell to Hold from Buy, slashing its price target to $175 from $350. Analyst Sean O’Loughlin expects the deal to dilute EPS by a mid-single-digit percentage in 2028, its first year, and worries it may come at or near the peak of an optical mini-cycle.
他写道：“我们下调评级主要是出于对交易本身在结构和时机上的负面看法，而不是对美满电子所收购资产质量的否定。”
"Our downgrade is driven primarily by our negative view of the transaction itself in terms of structure and timing, rather than the quality of the asset Marvell is acquiring," he wrote.
奥洛林表示，Lumentum很可能成为美满电子投资组合中的“皇冠明珠”，但他指出，自下而上的市场共识暗示2027年光学收发器市场规模约为1000亿美元，而TD高诚的预测为47亿美元。如果行业周期转向，Lumentum的经营杠杆可能会加剧摊薄效应。
O’Loughlin said Lumentum is likely to become a "crown jewel" within Marvell’s portfolio, but noted that bottom-up consensus implies a roughly $100 billion optical transceiver market in 2027, compared with TD Cowen’s $47 billion forecast. If the cycle turns, Lumentum’s operating leverage could worsen the dilution.
美国银行将美满电子的评级从“买入”下调至“中性”，并将其目标价从400美元下调至225美元。分析师维韦克·阿里亚（Vivek Arya）列举了该交易可能带来的长期股票滞销压力（stock overhang），以及费城半导体指数（SOX）过去一个月的大幅下跌。
Bank of America downgraded Marvell to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $225 from $400. Analyst Vivek Arya cited a potential extended stock overhang from the deal, along with a big drop in the SOX index over the past month.
阿里亚表示，这笔交易具有战略价值，打造了一个更广泛的电光连接平台，但他指出了漫长的监管审批程序（预计于2028年上半年完成交割）、10亿美元的成本削减无法抵消约50%的股份摊薄从而导致每股收益增厚有限，以及潜在的客户冲突等问题。
Arya said the deal has strategic merit, creating a broader electrical-to-optical connectivity platform, but flagged a lengthy regulatory process with closing expected in the first half of 2028, limited EPS accretion as $1 billion in cost cuts falls short of offsetting about 50% share dilution, and potential customer conflicts.
“在迈威科技最近的分析师日上，没有任何关于大型并购的提及，因此这一消息令人相当意外，”他说道。“我们对一旦朗美科的激光短缺问题不可避免地得到解决后，对其估值的影响表示质疑。”花旗称人工智能交易在期中选举后可能继续承压，更青睐欧洲股票而非美国股票花旗向客户表示，在美国期中选举之后，人工智能交易可能继续承压，并表示目前比起美国股票，它更青睐欧洲股票。
"There was no mention of any large M&A in MRVL’s recent analyst day, so the news comes as a considerable surprise," he said. "We question the impact on LITE’s valuation once its laser shortages are inevitably resolved." Citi says AI trade may stay under pressure post-midterms, prefers Europe over U.S. stocks Citi told clients the AI trade could remain under pressure after the U.S. midterm elections, and said it prefers European stocks over U.S. equities for now.
该行指出，市场通常会在期中选举前出现回调并在之后反弹，季节性分析显示标普500指数在11月至12月的回报率为3%至4%。但今年的选举前疲软有其他原因。
The bank noted that markets typically pull back ahead of midterms and rally afterward, with seasonal analysis pointing to November-December S&P 500 returns of 3% to 4%. But this year’s pre-election weakness had other causes.
“更重要的是，期中选举前夕的回调并非主要由于选举，而是由于人工智能融资担忧和石油，”该行写道。
"More importantly, the pullback ahead of the midterms was not mostly due to the election, but due to AI financing worries, and oil," the bank wrote.
花旗仍然预计，鉴于对计算能力的强劲需求，数据中心将会建成，但表示在民主党取得收益后，其选址、设计和建设速度可能会发生变化。该行表示：“对于包括半导体在内的卖铲人来说，这远非理想。”
Citi still expects data centers to get built given strong demand for computing power, but said their location, design and pace of construction may change after Democrats’ gains. "This is far from ideal for the picks and shovels, including semis," the bank said.
该行的“将领”指数追踪标普500指数中七大股票有多少只在其200日移动平均线下方交易，该指数已接近触发谨慎信号，花旗预计目前会有更多资金从科技股中轮出。
Its "Generals" index, which tracks how many of the seven largest S&P 500 stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages, is close to triggering a cautionary signal, and Citi expects more rotation out of tech for now.
花旗表示，选举并未明确改变伊朗战争的轨迹，但随着美国第三艘航空母舰要到11月中下旬才会抵达海湾，新一轮升级似乎并非迫在眉睫。
Citi said the election has not clearly changed the Iran war’s trajectory, but a renewed escalation does not appear imminent, with a third U.S. aircraft carrier not due in the Gulf until mid- to late November.
花旗表示：“鉴于人工智能的故事依然艰难，我们更倾向于选择欧洲，而石油的大幅下跌应该会让欧洲股票受益更多，这也是因为它可能导致欧洲央行采取更加温和的立场。”至少，该行预计欧洲股票的表现将优于美国股票。
"We prefer to use Europe, given that the AI story remains difficult, while the large move lower in oil should benefit European equities much more, also because it may lead to a more dovish ECB," Citi said. At the very least, it expects European stocks to outperform the U.S.
花旗将Adobe评级下调至“卖出”，并认为存在“硬重置风险”在另一份报告中，花旗已将Adobe的评级下调至“卖出”，并将目标价从250美元大幅下调至207美元，称随着领导层交替与创意业务面临的日益严峻的竞争和宏观压力相叠加，他们看到了2027财年市场普遍增长预期面临的下行风险。
Citi cuts Adobe to Sell, sees "rising risk of a hard reset" In a separate note, Citi has downgraded Adobe to Sell and slashed its price target to $207 from $250, saying it sees downside risk to consensus growth estimates into fiscal 2027 as a leadership transition coincides with mounting competitive and macro pressure on the Creative business.
花旗分析师表示：“我们看到‘硬重置’的风险正在上升。”将于12月1日接任的新任首席执行官阿尼尔·查克拉瓦蒂（Anil Chakravarthy）是在“关键领导岗位空缺”的背景下接任这一职务的，这些空缺包括首席财务官和数字媒体负责人。
"[We] see rising risk of a hard reset," Citi analysts said. Incoming CEO Anil Chakravarthy, who takes over Dec. 1, assumes the role "amid key leadership vacancies," including the CFO and the head of Digital Media.
这家华尔街机构预计，当Adobe在12月早些时候发布第四季度财报时，其2027财年展望将会疲软。分析师写道：“‘硬重置’会在短期内对股价构成压力，但能为重建领导层、完善战略以及奠定更具可实现性的加速基础争取时间。”
The Wall Street firm expects a weaker fiscal 2027 outlook when Adobe reports fourth-quarter results in early December. "A ’hard reset’ would pressure shares near term but provide time to rebuild leadership, refine strategy, and establish a more achievable base to accelerate," the analysts wrote.
该行预计，Adobe将更多地依靠人工智能（AI）和Firefly来实现漏斗顶端增长，而不是依赖此前一直依靠涨价的经典创意云（Creative Cloud）套件。这种向月度活跃用户的转变可能会对2027和2028财年的总年度经常性收入（ARR）造成压力，其中对核心创意业务的影响最大，再加上小型企业需求的疲软以及来自基于网络的和原生AI工具的竞争，这种影响将进一步加剧。
The bank expects Adobe to lean more on top-of-funnel growth through AI and Firefly rather than its classic Creative Cloud suite, which has relied on price increases. That shift toward monthly active users will likely weigh on total ARR in fiscal 2027 and 2028, with the greatest impact in core Creative, compounded by weak small-business demand and competition from web-based and AI-native tools.
花旗估计，对用户增长的强调可能会给2027财年年度经常性收入（ARR）的增长带来200个基点的压力，随着Adobe度过先前的创意云涨价周期，定价将面临进一步的50个基点逆风。
Citi estimates the user-growth emphasis could add 200 basis points of pressure to fiscal 2027 annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, with pricing facing a further 50 basis point headwind as Adobe laps earlier Creative Cloud increases.
花旗将2027和2028财年的净新增ARR预期分别下调了约4.7亿美元和5亿美元，至15亿美元和13.5亿美元，从而使总ARR同比增长率降至5.3%和4.5%，比华尔街预期低200至300个基点。
It cut net new ARR estimates for fiscal 2027 and 2028 by roughly $470 million and $500 million, to $1.5 billion and $1.35 billion, taking total ARR growth to 5.3% and 4.5% year-over-year, 200 to 300 basis points below Street estimates.
花旗还将2027财年的非美国通用会计准则（non-GAAP）毛利率预期下调了70个基点，以反映未货币化的AI推理成本，并预计2028财年的营收将急剧下降，同时利润率出现温和恶化。
Citi also lowered its fiscal 2027 non-GAAP gross margin estimate by 70 basis points to reflect unmonetized AI inference costs, and sees sharply lower revenue in fiscal 2028 alongside modest margin degradation.
华尔街分析师因第四季度业绩展望疲软下调HubSpot评级 在这家软件公司的第四季度业绩展望逊于预期、显示需求环境恶化之后，四家华尔街机构下调了HubSpot的评级。
Wall Street analysts downgrade HubSpot on weak Q4 outlook Four Wall Street firms have downgraded HubSpot after the software company’s weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter outlook pointed to a worsening demand environment.
按固定汇率计算，HubSpot第三季度营收增长17%，超出预期2个百分点，但其对第四季度增长的预测为12%，低于13.8%的市场共识预期。管理层表示，预算审查、价格敏感度以及更长的销售周期已经变得更加明显，且这些情况预计将持续到2027年。
HubSpot’s third-quarter revenue grew 17% at constant currency, a 2-point beat, but it guided fourth-quarter growth to 12%, below consensus of 13.8%. Management said budget scrutiny, price sensitivity and longer sales cycles had become more pronounced and are likely to persist into 2027.
该公司在该季度净新增5300名客户，低于预期的5600名，目前预计第四季度净新增客户将少于5000名，同时净收入留存率从一年前的103%降至101%。
The company added 5,300 net new customers in the quarter, below the 5,600 expected, and now expects fewer than 5,000 in the fourth quarter, while net revenue retention slipped to 101% from 103% a year ago.
BTIG将HubSpot的评级从“买入”下调至“中性”，并将其2027年增长预测从14%下调至11%。分析师尼克·奥尔特曼（Nick Altmann）表示，按2027年预计自由现金流的10倍左右计算，该股票的估值看来是合理的。
BTIG cut HubSpot to Neutral from Buy and lowered its 2027 growth forecast to 11% from 14%. Analyst Nick Altmann said the stock looks appropriately valued at about 10 times 2027 estimated free cash flow.
KeyBanc将该股票评级下调至“行业权重”。分析师杰克逊·阿德尔（Jackson Ader）写道：“我们承认这有些迟了，但我们认为从现在到明年2月份我们获得正式的2027年业绩指引之前，改善的空间很小，因此我们将其下调至‘行业权重’。”
KeyBanc downgraded the stock to Sector Weight. "We recognize this is late, but we believe there is little room for improvement between now and when we get formal 2027 guidance next February and are downgrading to Sector Weight," analyst Jackson Ader wrote.
坎托（Cantor）将HubSpot评级下调至“减持”，目标价为170美元。分析师马修·范弗利特（Matthew VanVliet）表示，该公司在欧洲实施的新定价实际上相当于降价，且其人工智能工具的表现落后于同行。
Cantor downgraded HubSpot to Underweight with a $170 price target. Analyst Matthew VanVliet said the company’s new European pricing effectively amounts to a price cut and that its AI tools are underperforming peers.
他说：“我们不再认为HUBS是那种值得享有宽容的优质SaaS资产。”
"We no longer see HUBS as a premier SaaS asset that deserves the benefit of the doubt," he said.
另外，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）也将其对HubSpot的评级从“增持”下调至“持股观望”，并将目标价从287美元下调至229美元。
Separately, Morgan Stanley also cut HubSpot to Equal-weight from Overweight and trimmed its price target to $229 from $287.