在科技股遭遇剧烈抛售之际，投资者周四对CNBC表示，在民主党在周二中期选举中取得重大胜利、并威胁要放缓数据中心建设之后，AI交易可能正在发生根本性破裂。
Amid a powerful rout in tech stocks, investors told CNBC on Thursday that something may be fundamentally breaking in the AI trade following the big success of Democrats in Tuesday's midterm elections and the threat they try to slow the data center buildout.
民主党比共和党更激进地反对数据中心，华尔街正在迅速重新计算，他们实施的任何限制可能对相关公司未来增长意味着什么。
Democrats are more aggressively anti-data center than Republicans, and Wall Street is quickly redoing its math what any restrictions they implement could mean for the related companies' future growth.
One Point BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官Peter Boockvar对CNBC表示：“目前，投资者正在质疑我们预测的明年1.2万亿美元资本支出。‘嗯，也许那不会发生了。’” Boockvar认为，这可能是我们所熟知的AI交易走向终结的开始。
"Right now, investors are questioning that $1.2 trillion of capex that we forecast for next year," Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, told CNBC. "Well, maybe that's not going to happen." Boockvar believes this could be the start of the end of the AI trade as we know it.
分析师表示，无论它是否完全结束，投资者都需要重新评估他们未来如何布局AI交易。
Whether it's completely over or not, investors need to be reassessing how they're planning to play the AI trade going forward, the analysts said.
纳斯达克综合指数周四下跌5%，进入回调区间，较上月创下的历史高点下跌逾11%。iShares半导体ETF周四下跌11%，为2020年3月新冠疫情爆发以来最大单日跌幅。Global X人工智能与科技ETF（AIQ）当日下跌6%，过去一个月下跌15%。
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 5% on Thursday and fell into correction territory, off by more than 11% from its record high set last month. The iShares Semiconductor ETF dropped 11% on Thursday, its biggest decline since during the Covid breakout in March 2020. The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) is down 6% on the day and down 15% over the past month.
Cantor Fitzgerald股票主管Eric Johnston对CNBC表示：“AI基础设施建设的前景发生了巨大变化。整个经济、消费者和盈利增长都杠杆式地依赖于这一建设。” 周四的抛售蔓延至非AI股票，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌逾1600点。
"There has been a huge change in the outlook for AI infrastructure buildout," Eric Johnston, head of equities at Cantor Fitzgerald, told CNBC. "The entire economy and the consumer and earnings growth are all levered to that buildout." The selling Thursday spilled over to non-AI stocks with the Dow Jones Industrial average down more than 1,600 points.
Josh Brown指出10年期美债收益率达4.8%，称极具吸引力的无风险收益率正导致投资者重新考虑承担这些波动剧烈的AI股票的风险。
Josh Brown pointed to the 4.8% yield for the 10-year Treasury yield, saying a compelling risk-free rate is causing investors to reconsider taking the risk in these volatile AI stocks.
“你不需要持有80%的美国股票，并让其中60%的敞口集中在科技板块，”Brown说。
"You don't need to be at 80% U.S. stocks and have 60% of that exposure be tech," Brown said.
寻找机会 许多投资者认为，AI 交易并未完全结束，投资者只需变得更加挑剔。
Finding opportunity Many investors believe the AI trade isn't over completely, investors just need to get more selective.
“AI 基建变得更难了，”Newedge Capital Group 创始人兼管理合伙人 Rob Sechan 表示：“没有人投票决定让算力变得不再稀缺，”Sechan 说，并引用了微软 Azure 云业务在最近一个第三季度同比增长 48% 的数据。他表示，这种增长水平表明其受限于产能，而非需求。
"The AI buildout just got harder," said Rob Sechan, Newedge Capital Group Founder & Managing Partner: "Nobody voted to make compute less scarce," Sechan said, citing Microsoft's Azure cloud business growing 48% year over year in its most recent third quarter. That level of growth suggests its capacity constrained, not demand constrained, he said.
“当新增产能变得更难建设时，现有产能就会变得更有价值，”Sechan 说。
"When new capacity gets harder to build, existing capacity becomes more valuable," Sechan said.
Janus Henderson 投资组合经理 Richard Clode 指出，尽管大型科技指数高度相关地同向下跌，但周四科技板块仍有几个亮点。
Richard Clode, portfolio manager at Janus Henderson, noted a few bright spots in tech on Thursday despite the highly correlated downward movements in the big tech indices.
“Motorola Solutions 业绩不错，”他说。“我们看到资金略微轮动至一些……互联网股票……Sony 也公布了不错的业绩，且隔夜股价大幅上涨。”“所以确实存在一些短暂的喘息空间，但显然今天整体跌幅依然相当惨烈，”他说。一些专家认为抛售过度，投资者可以开始少量买入。
"Motorola Solutions had some good results," he said. "We're seeing a little bit of rotation into some of the … internet names...Sony reported some good results, and again they were up strongly overnight." "So there are some brief pockets of respite from this, but obviously pretty painful across the board today," he said. Some experts believe the selling was overdone and investors could start nibbling.
这种“盲目抛售”是“买入良机，”Raymond James 首席投资官 Larry Adam 表示。如果投资者“采取更长远的视角，这正是我们所做的，我认为当前估值水平最终将证明是一个良好的买入机会，”他说，并敦促投资者关注基本面。
This "indiscriminate selling" is a "buying opportunity," said Larry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer. If investors "take a longer term perspective, which is what we do, I think the valuations at today's levels will tend to prove to be a good buying opportunity," he said, urging investors to look at the fundamentals.
G Squared Private Wealth 首席投资官 Victoria Greene 表示，她看到标普 500 指数 200 日移动平均线附近存在一些强支撑，正在留意周四暴跌后的市场反弹。
Victoria Greene, chief investment officer of G Squared Private Wealth, said she saw some strong supports around the S&P 500's 200-day moving average and was on the lookout for a market bounce following Thursday's rout.
“通常情况下，第二天的平均回报率约为正180个基点，”她说。“我们必须自问：这是上升趋势中的回调，这也是我的看法？还是这是终局，车轮脱落，所有人只能去买短期国债？我认为我们还没到那一步。”
"Typically, the average return is plus about 180 basis points the next day," she said. "The question we have to ask ourselves: Is this a pullback in an uptrend, which is what I believe? Or is this the end-all, be-all [and] the wheels are coming off and everybody just needs to buy T-bills? I don't think we're there yet."