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纽约联储调查:美国人对未来失业水平的担忧加剧NY Fed survey finds Americans more worried over future jobless levels

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11月9日 - 纽约联储周一发布的一项调查显示,美国人上个月对劳动力市场前景的担忧加剧。

Nov 9 - Americans last month grew more worried about the labor market outlook, according to a survey released on Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

纽约联储10月消费者预期调查发现,受访者预计一年后失业率将走高,该指标升至2020年4月以来最高水平,当时正处于新冠疫情动荡的早期阶段。

The bank’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations found that projections the jobless rate will be higher a year from now were at the highest since April 2020, a reading hit during the tumultuous early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

调查受访者还表示,10月他们预期非自愿失业的几率增加,尽管该预期仍处于相对较低水平。但他们同时表示,失业后找到新工作的几率在10月有所上升。

Survey respondents also said that in October they saw a greater chance of involuntarily losing a job, although that expectation was still at relatively low levels. But they also said their chance of finding new work after a job loss was higher in October.

对就业市场前景的负面看法出现在一份报告中,该报告显示受访者预期未来物价涨幅将保持稳定,但这些水平仍远高于美联储2%的通胀目标。

The negative bent on the outlook for the job market came in a release that found respondents expecting future price gains to be steady at levels that are nevertheless well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

受访者预计一年后通胀率为3.9%,三年后为3.3%,五年后为3%,所有水平均与9月调查持平。一系列商品的预期好坏参半,家庭预期一年后汽油价格涨幅将比9月预期的更为温和。

Respondents see inflation a year from now at 3.9%, three years from now at 3.3% and five years from now at 3%, all levels that matched the September survey. Expectations across a range of commodities were mixed, with households seeing a more moderate increase in gasoline prices a year from now than they saw in September.

政府周五公布的数据显示,10月就业市场表现出意外的强劲,新增就业16.5万,失业率回落至4.1%,且近期招聘数据大幅上修。美联储官员经常将就业市场描述为“低招聘、低裁员”。

On Friday, the government reported that the job market showed unexpected strength in October, with a 165,000 gain and a jobless rate ebbing to 4.1%, amid strong upward revisions to recent hiring data. Fed officials have regularly referred to the job market as low-hire, low-fire.

调查显示,与9月相比,家庭对当前财务状况的看法略有改善,而对一年后财务状况的预期在10月保持稳定。10月关于当前和未来信贷获取情况的读数保持不变。

The survey found that households’ view on their current financial situations improved a bit relative to September while expectations over finances a year from now were steady in October. October’s reading on access to credit now and in the future were unchanged.

这份纽约联储报告是在10月期间进行的,当时美国人正处于关键中期选举前夕,最终选举结果导致民主党全面获胜,包括控制国会两院。

The New York Fed report was conducted over the course of October as Americans were in the run-up to pivotal midterm elections that ultimately led to broad-based Democratic gains, including control of both houses of Congress.

选民在其他民调显示全国情绪低落之际前往投票,因为美国人一直在与总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易关税和中东战争引发的高通胀作斗争。

Voters went to the polls amid other surveys that have shown a sour mood across the nation, as Americans have struggled with the high inflation unleashed by President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and Middle East war.

纽约联储报告最受关注的是其对通胀前景的解读。美联储官员普遍预计将在12月初的政策会议上加息,因为他们正努力将当前的通胀水平拉回目标区间。

The New York Fed report is most closely watched for its readings on the outlook for inflation. Fed officials are broadly expected to raise interest rates at the early December policy meeting as they work to bring current levels of inflation back to target.

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