唐纳德·特朗普总统签署法案、给予数百万无证移民合法身份途径的可能性依然很小。
It remains unlikely that President Donald Trump would ever sign off on giving millions of undocumented immigrants a path to legal status.
但在共和党经历了一场惨烈的2026年选举后，他又开始谈论此事。这在共和党基础选民中引发了一场巨大的——且看似毫无必要的——反弹，时机对共和党而言简直糟糕透顶。
But after a brutal 2026 election for Republicans, he’s talking about it again. And it’s setting off a major — and seemingly unnecessary — backlash in his base at about the worst possible time for the GOP.
这可算作特朗普在上周惨烈的中期选举前后，一系列离奇政治举动中的最新一例。
Consider it just the latest in a series of bizarre political moves from Trump both before and after last week’s bruising midterms.
内部纷争始于周日晚间，当时哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS News）节目《60分钟》（60 Minutes）播出了一次采访，特朗普在采访中承认，他的驱逐行动“太严厉了”，并导致共和党在选举中失利。但随后总统更进一步，暗示他愿意让数百万无证移民合法化身份。
The internal discord kicked off Sunday night, when CBS News’ “60 Minutes” aired an interview in which Trump acknowledged his deportations had been “too tough” and cost Republicans in the election. But then the president went a step further, suggesting he’d be open to legalizing the status of millions of undocumented migrants.
特朗普将这一想法概括为：“把杀人犯赶出去，把强奸犯赶出去，把所有恶棍赶出去，把毒贩赶出去。但让那些留在这里的人——在某些情况下已在这里待了10年、15年——达成一项协议。” 特朗普有时会漂浮此类想法，随后又迅速收回。但到了周一，国土安全部部长马克韦恩·马林（Markwayne Mullin）发出信号，表明这并非特朗普随口一说。
Trump summarized the idea as: “Get the killers out, get the rapists out, get all the rough ones out, get the drug dealers out. But let the people that are here — and in some cases here for 10 and 15 years — work a deal for them.”Trump sometimes floats such things and then quickly backs off them. But by Monday, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin signaled this wasn’t just Trump freelancing. Mullin assured there would be “no amnesty” and that the administration’s law enforcement approach “isn’t going to change.”
马林保证“不会有大赦”，政府的执法方式“不会改变”。但他表示，特朗普已表达出与民主党合作的意愿。
But he said that Trump had signaled a desire to work with Democrats.
穆林表示：“现在，如果我们想要进行移民改革，以便审视‘童年入境者暂缓遣返计划’（DACA），并想办法让这些人成为合法永久公民或类似身份，那将取决于国会。”他指的是奥巴马时代的“童年入境者暂缓遣返计划”，该计划允许童年时期作为无证移民入境的人留在美国。（根据上下文判断，他原本想说的很可能是“合法永久居民”。）但无论穆林和政府整天怎么否认这不是“大赦”，在特朗普的基本盘眼中，这件事的走向——以及未来的走向——并非如此。
“Now, if we want to have an immigration reform to where we can look at DACA and figure out a way that these individuals can become maybe legal permanent citizens or something like this, that’ll be up to Congress,” Mullin said, referring to the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which allowed undocumented migrants who arrived as children to stay. (It’s likely, given the context, he meant to say “legal permanent residents.”) But while Mullin and the administration can deny this is “amnesty” all day long, that’s not how it’s playing — or going to play — with Trump’s base.
这场风波引发了非同寻常的强烈反弹——许多特朗普盟友，如传统基金会和众议院自由核心小组，在X平台上发帖称“不要大赦”，并未专门指向特朗普的言论。
The flap has set off an extraordinary backlash — with many Trump allies like the Heritage Foundation and the House Freedom Caucus posting on X, “No amnesty,” without specifically pointing to Trump’s comments.
佛罗里达州共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯——他最近已站出来批评特朗普政府的多项举措和政治策略——援引了自己过去的言论，表明不应对驱逐行动有任何例外。
Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis — who has recently stepped forward to criticize a number of the Trump administration’s moves and political strategies — pointed to his own past comments signaling there should be no exceptions to deportations.
密苏里州共和党众议员鲍勃·翁德更为直接，针对《60分钟》节目的采访发帖称：“绝不给非法外国人大赦。”
Missouri GOP Rep. Bob Onder was more direct, posting, “NO amnesty for illegal aliens” in response to the “60 Minutes” interview.
当白宫官方快速回应账号在X平台上声称特朗普谈的不是大赦时，《联邦党人报》的一名记者称其为“侮辱人智”。其他人则发出信号，认为这只是最新一次刺痛总统基本盘的举动。
When the official White House rapid response account on X claimed that Trump wasn’t talking about amnesty, a reporter at the Federalist called it “insulting.”And others signaled it was just the latest thumb in the eye of the president’s base.
前特朗普顾问史蒂夫·科尔特斯表示：“如果特朗普总统与民主党控制的国会达成大赦协议，那将比发动愚蠢的伊朗战争构成更大的背叛。”共和党策略师瑞安·吉尔杜斯基说，特朗普“提出了一个会毁掉该党的想法”。“现在居然是大赦。说真的？”播客主持人梅根·凯利说道。这确实在政治上令人费解。
Former Trump adviser Steve Cortes said, “If President Trump struck an amnesty deal with the Democrat-controlled Congress, it would be a bigger betrayal than starting the foolish war in Iran.”GOP strategist Ryan Girdusky said Trump was “proposing an idea that will kill the party.”“And now amnesty. Seriously?” podcast host Megyn Kelly said. It is indeed politically perplexing.
特朗普本可以在不涉及合法身份途径的情况下，仅仅发出大规模驱逐政策略有退让的信号。他的基本盘或许不会喜欢，但可能会理解。这种有限的退让至少是针对他政党真正的、重大的政治问题而做出的。但特朗普的言论更令人困惑，因为这一想法极不可能有任何结果。
Trump could just as easily have signaled a bit of a retreat on mass deportations without going into pathways to legal status. His base wouldn’t have loved it, but it might have understood it. And such a limited retreat would have at least been targeted at the real, big political problem for his party. But Trump’s comments are even more confusing because it’s very unlikely this idea will ever lead anywhere.
这并非他首次提出某种入籍途径，每次都引发基本盘类似的强烈反弹。
This isn’t the first time he has floated some sort of pathway to citizenship, with each episode prompting a similar backlash from his base.
无论是在2016年大选获胜前后，他都主张为“梦想生”提供合法身份途径：“我们将制定出一个让人们感到高兴和自豪的方案。”
Both before and after he won the 2016 election, he leaned on a path to legal status for Dreamers: “We’re going to work something out that’s going to make people happy and proud.”
2018年1月，他表示愿意接受为符合“童年入境暂缓遣返行动”（DACA）资格的移民提供漫长的入籍途径，因为这“未来迟早会发生”。他在2024年大选获胜后再次表示愿意在“梦想生”问题上与民主党合作。而2025年6月，他提出为移民工人提供“某种临时通行证”，显然是因为商界表达了担忧，认为他的驱逐政策冲击了产业需求。
In January 2018, he said he would accept a lengthy path to citizenship for DACA-eligible immigrants because it was “going to happen at some point in the future.”He signaled an openness on working with Democrats on Dreamers again after his 2024 election. And in June 2025, he floated “some kind of a temporary pass” for migrant workers, apparently because business interests expressed concern about how his deportations impacted industry needs.
问题是，如果特朗普想推动某种让这些人合法化身份的协议，他或许真能做到。近十年前我曾撰文指出，特朗普对基本盘的掌控力可能使他成为唯一能成就此事的现代总统。这一点依然成立。
The thing is, if Trump wanted to pursue some kind of deal that would legalize these people’s status, he could possibly make it happen. I wrote nearly a decade ago about how Trump’s control over his base could make him the one modern president to get this done. And that remains true.
但这极不可能发生。要推动此事，特朗普势必会疏远其基本盘的大批群体，而如前所述，这些群体已对颇有微词。这将是自毁长城。任何政治收益都将以“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）阵营彻底分裂为代价。
But it’s in all likelihood not going to happen. In order to push it through, Trump would undoubtedly have to alienate huge chunks of his base which, as noted, already isn’t thrilled with him. It would be self-defeating. Any political gain would come at the expense of the total fracturing of MAGA.
这意味着，在共和党惨败仅一周之际，特朗普却因一件极不可能成真、且本无需提出的事情挑动其基本盘。
Which means that, a week out from massive GOP losses, Trump is provoking his base over something that in all likelihood isn’t going to happen and that he didn’t need to float.
但这也是一位如今似乎想做什么、说什么就做什么、说什么的总统，很少顾及其政治后果，以及可能给其政党带来什么麻烦。
But this is also a president who seems to do and say what he wants these days, with little concern for how it plays politically and what problems it might create for his party.
这或许会成为特朗普的一项真正重大举措。但如果他很快就夹着尾巴逃之夭夭，也不必感到惊讶。
Maybe this becomes a really a major initiative of Trump’s. But don’t be surprised if he tucks his tail and runs from it pretty quickly.