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以色列前顾问:内塔尼亚胡因可能失去权力处于“恐慌状态”Netanyahu in ‘state of panic’ over prospect of losing power, former Israeli adviser says

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内塔尼亚胡前亲密顾问尼尔·赫费茨周二表示,这位总理因面临失去权力的前景,正处于“恐慌状态”之中。

Nir Hefetz, a former close adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Tuesday that the premier is living in a “state of panic” over the prospect of losing power.

“我认为内塔尼亚胡处于恐慌状态,”赫费茨在以色列103FM电台节目中表示,当时“以色列复原党”领袖加迪·艾森科特正继续努力组建新政府。

“I think Netanyahu is in a state of panic,” Hefetz told Israel’s 103FM radio as Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot continued efforts to form a new government.

“恐慌是他决策中的一个根本因素。我几乎可以闭上眼睛,感受到那种恐慌的氛围。”以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格周日授权艾森科特组建政府,给予他28天时间,并有可能延长14天。

“Panic is a fundamental factor in his decision-making. I can almost close my eyes and feel that atmosphere of panic.”Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Sunday tasked Eisenkot with forming a government, giving him 28 days, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.

此后,艾森科特一直在与各政党举行磋商,以争取组建政府所需的议会支持。

Eisenkot has since been holding consultations with political parties in an effort to secure the parliamentary support needed to form a government.

在10月27日举行的选举中,反对党在120席的议会(克内塞特)中赢得48个席位,两个阿拉伯政党获得19个席位,反内塔尼亚胡阵营合计拥有67个席位。内塔尼亚胡阵营赢得53个席位。

In the elections held on October 27, the opposition parties won 48 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while two Arab parties secured 19, giving parties opposed to Netanyahu a combined 67 seats. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats.

赫费茨表示,失去总理职位并转入反对党将给内塔尼亚胡的生活带来根本性改变。“委婉地说,他在家里的日子不会好过,”他说。

Hefetz said losing the premiership and moving into opposition would bring a radical change to Netanyahu’s life.

“他会坐在反对党席位上吗?他会突然不得不看着加迪·艾森科特在全副武装的安保人员陪同下活动,乘坐直升机出行,搭乘‘锡安之翼’飞机,”他问道,指的是以色列的官方国家专机。

“To put it mildly, things will not be easy for him at home,” he said.

提到内塔尼亚胡、其妻子萨拉和儿子亚伊尔时,赫费茨说:“这三人简直会炸裂。对他们来说,这比人们被绑架到加沙还要糟糕。”

“Will he sit on the opposition benches? Will he suddenly have to watch Gadi Eisenkot moving around with a full security detail, using the helicopter for transportation and flying aboard Wing of Zion,” he asked, referring to Israel’s official state aircraft.

在描述内塔尼亚胡办公室内部氛围时,赫费茨说:“紧急电话每五秒钟就打进来一次,全都传递着来自亚伊尔和萨拉的同一个信息。”

Referring to Netanyahu, his wife Sara and son Yair, Hefetz said: “This trio will simply explode. For them, this is worse than people being kidnapped to Gaza.”

政治让步赫费茨还谈到了内塔尼亚胡失去职位可能带来的法律后果,认为这可能会影响其贪腐审判的进程。

Describing the atmosphere inside Netanyahu’s office, Hefetz said: “Urgent calls arrive every five seconds, all carrying the same message from Yair and Sara.”Political concessions Hefetz also addressed the possible legal consequences of Netanyahu losing office, arguing that it could affect the conduct of his corruption trial.

“你明白他的人生会发生多么彻底的改变吗?”他说,“地区法院的法官小组——目前允许律师阿米特·哈达德主导事态——将要求他出席每一场听证会。”“法官们将全面掌控局面,内塔尼亚胡将发现自己不得不一天又一天地坐在那里,”他补充说。

“Do you understand how radically his life will change?” he said. “The panel of judges at the District Court -- which currently allows attorney Amit Hadad to steer things -- will require him to attend every hearing.”“The judges will take full control, and Netanyahu will find himself having to sit there day after day,” he added.

自2020年以来,内塔尼亚胡因三起腐败案中的贿赂、欺诈和背信指控而受审。他否认有不当行为。

Netanyahu has been on trial since 2020 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three corruption cases. He denies wrongdoing.

国际刑事法院还于2024年11月21日就加沙的战争罪和反人类罪对内塔尼亚胡发出逮捕令。

The International Criminal Court also issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu on Nov. 21, 2024, over war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

赫费茨说,艾森科特在组建政府方面的进展可能会促使内塔尼亚胡在他呼吁组建团结政府之际提出政治让步。

Hefetz said Eisenkot’s progress toward forming a government could push Netanyahu to offer political concessions as he calls for a unity government.

“随着加迪·艾森科特越来越接近组建政府,内塔尼亚胡可能会准备接受更少的条件,”他说。

“As Gadi Eisenkot gets closer to forming a government, Netanyahu will probably be prepared to accept less,” he said.

赫费茨认为,内塔尼亚胡的团结政府提议可能也旨在防止他与极端正统派犹太政党长期联盟的解体。

Hefetz suggested Netanyahu’s unity-government proposal may also be aimed at preventing the unraveling of his longstanding alliance with ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.

如果没有阿拉伯政党的支持或极端正统派政党的参与,任何一个政治阵营都难以轻松获得议会多数席位。内塔尼亚胡的长期盟友“联合妥拉犹太教党”在赫尔佐格的磋商中拒绝推荐任何总理人选。

Neither political camp can easily secure a parliamentary majority without either Arab-party support or the participation of ultra-Orthodox parties. United Torah Judaism, a longtime Netanyahu ally, declined to recommend any candidate for prime minister during Herzog’s consultations.

赫费茨说,内塔尼亚胡与极端正统派政党的联盟帮助他自2015年以来一直掌权,并认为内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直试图将阿拉伯政党排除在联盟盘算之外。

Hefetz said Netanyahu’s alliance with the ultra-Orthodox parties had helped keep him in power since 2015 and argued that Netanyahu had long sought to exclude Arab parties from coalition calculations.

“艾森科特开始与他谈判团结政府的那一刻,压力就会缓解,”赫费茨说。“但在此之前,必须阻止雪崩效应。”他认为内塔尼亚胡可能会提出政治让步,包括推进所谓的“法国法”,该法将限制对在任总理的法律诉讼,并可能将其与涉及“候补总理”职位的安排挂钩。

“The moment Eisenkot begins negotiating with him over a unity government, the pressure will ease,” Hefetz said. “But before that, the avalanche effect has to be stopped.”He suggested Netanyahu could offer political concessions, including advancing what is known as the “French law,” which would restrict legal proceedings against a serving prime minister, possibly tying it to arrangements involving an “alternate prime minister” post.

赫费茨说,艾森科特对内塔尼亚胡构成特殊挑战,因为在他看来,艾森科特在政治上难以施压。

Hefetz said Eisenkot represents a particular challenge for Netanyahu because, in his view, he is hard to pressure politically.

“内塔尼亚胡对此非常清楚,”他说。“艾森科特不怕他,而且他知道艾森科特不是可以轻视或操纵的人。艾森科特不会结巴。”内塔尼亚胡是以色列任职时间最长的总理,曾在1996年至1999年、2009年至2021年以及2022年12月至今担任该职。

“Netanyahu understands this very well,” he said. “Eisenkot is not afraid of him, and he knows he is not someone who can be taken lightly or manipulated. Eisenkot will not stammer.”Netanyahu is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, having held the post from 1996 to 1999, from 2009 to 2021 and again since December 2022.

他现在正试图阻止艾森科特组建政府,办法是维持与极端正统派政党的联盟,并反对任何包括阿拉伯政党或依赖其议会支持的政府。

He is now seeking to prevent Eisenkot from forming a government by maintaining his alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties and opposing any government that includes Arab parties or depends on their parliamentary support.

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