
内塔尼亚胡的统治或许尚未结束,但理应结束以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在以色列最新的选举中或许未能赢得议会(克内塞特)的多数席位,但他从未做到过这一点。这并未妨碍他成为以色列任职时间最长的总理。
Netanyahu’s reign may not be over, but it should be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not have won a majority of Knesset seats in Israel’s latest election, but he has never done so. That has not prevented him from being Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.
他将再次试图拼凑一个由非阿拉伯政党组成的联盟,无论其领导人多么令人反感,以维持掌权地位。并非巧合的是,成功意味着他可以避免面临其长期进行的贪腐和受贿审判中被定罪的前景。
Once again, he will try to stitch together a coalition of non-Arab parties, no matter how distasteful their leaders might be, in order to remain in power. Not coincidentally, success means that he can avoid facing the prospect of conviction in his long-running trial for corruption and bribery.
内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团赢得了议会席位的相对多数,但未达到其目前在议会中的代表席位数。另一方面,由以色列国防军前参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派联盟赢得了更大的相对多数,尽管他自己的政党赢得的席位少于利库德集团。除非艾森科特能证明他的联盟能够获得61个席位的绝对多数,否则以色列总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格可能别无选择,只能要求内塔尼亚胡尝试组建新政府。
Netanyahu’s Likud party won a plurality of Knesset seats but fell short of its current representation in the parliament. On the other hand, the opposition coalition, led by former Israeli Defense Force chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, won a larger plurality, although his own party won fewer seats than Likud. Unless Eisenkot can demonstrate that his coalition could garner a majority of 61 seats, Israeli President Isaac Herzog may have little choice but to ask Netanyahu to attempt to form a new government.
另一个内塔尼亚胡政府无论对以色列还是对美国都不是好兆头。这位以色列领导人一直在推动特朗普总统对伊朗发动另一次空袭。内塔尼亚胡在选举前如此做,推测是希望如果以色列正在对德黑兰政权采取行动,以色列选民会团结在他的领导下。但这并未发生。
Another Netanyahu government would not bode well either for Israel or for the U.S. The Israeli leader has been pushing President Trump to launch another aerial assault on Iran. Netanyahu did so prior to the election, presumably hoping that, were Israel engaged in operations against the Tehran regime, Israeli voters would rally round his leadership. That did not happen.
大选结束后,但在美国国会选举之前,现任看守总理内塔尼亚胡在两位领导人所谓的“坦诚”交谈中,再次遭到特朗普拒绝。随着美国大选尘埃落定,特朗普现在面临一个更加敌视他的国会,这很可能会扼杀他的立法倡议,甚至可能阻挠他的政治任命。因此,特朗普将把大部分精力投入到外交事务上,在那里他受国会制约较少,届时可能更倾向于答应内塔尼亚胡的紧迫恳请。
Once the elections were over, but prior to the American congressional elections, Netanyahu, now a caretaker prime minister, in what was termed a “candid” conversation between the two leaders, Trump again rebuffed Netanyahu. With the American elections over, Trump is now facing the prospect of a far more hostile Congress that likely will throttle his legislative initiatives and perhaps even his political appointments. Trump will therefore devote most of his attention to foreign affairs, where he would have greater freedom from Congressional restraint and may then be more inclined to accede to Netanyahu’s urgent pleas.
如果艾森科特成功组建执政联盟,他不太可能像内塔尼亚胡那样向特朗普施压。然而,艾森科特面临的挑战是,如何在不纳入阿拉伯政党的情况下拼凑政府——这些政党合计赢得了19个席位,从而成为任何一方获得绝对多数的关键。
Should Eisenkot successfully put together a governing coalition, he is unlikely to pressure Trump as Netanyahu has done. The challenge Eisenkot faces, however, is how to cobble together a government without including the Arab parties that together won 19 seats and thus became the key to any outright government majority.
艾森科特和内塔尼亚胡一样,公开反对在政府中纳入阿拉伯政党;自1948年建国以来,只有三名以色列阿拉伯人(其中一人为德鲁兹人)曾担任以色列部长。然而,与内塔尼亚胡不同的是,艾森科特在这一问题上似乎更具灵活性。内塔尼亚胡或许能接受议会僵局,这会促使他呼吁再次大选;但艾森科特认识到,就像之前几次大选中反对这位狡猾总理的许多领导人一样,如果他失败了,可能不会有第二次机会。
Eisenkot, like Netanyahu, publicly opposes including Arab parties in his government; only three Israeli Arabs (one of them Druze) have ever served as Israeli ministers since Israel’s independence in 1948. Unlike Netanyahu, however, Eisenkot appears to be somewhat more flexible on this issue. Whereas Netanyahu might be comfortable with a deadlocked Knesset that would prompt him to call for another election, Eisenkot recognizes that, like many who led the opposition to the wily prime minister in previous elections, he may have no second chance if he fails.
前国防部长阿维格多·利伯曼已宣布,他不会在包含以色列阿拉伯人的政府中任职。因此,艾森科特必须权衡,是否准备在其政府中纳入一个或多个阿拉伯政党,同时游说利伯曼改变立场。
Former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman has announced that he will not serve in a government that includes Israeli Arabs. Eisenkot must therefore weigh whether he is prepared to include one more more of the Arab parties in his government while cajoling Lieberman to reverse his stance.
艾森科特有三种选择,可能使他能够组建政府。内塔尼亚胡呼吁组建“民族团结”政府,以便让他继续担任总理。艾森科特不太可能同意这种安排,因为这可能会让他被边缘化,即使他身为政府部长。或者,他可以与阿拉伯政党达成协议,让他们支持他的少数派政府,作为交换,给予各种让步,例如将更多政府资源用于支持目前资金不足的项目,以改善以色列阿拉伯公民的生活条件。
Eisenkot has three options that could enable him to form a government. Netanyahu has called for a “national unity” government that would allow him to remain prime minister. It is unlikely that Eisenkot would agree to such an arrangement, which could leave him sidelined, even if he is a government minister. Alternatively, he could reach an agreement with the Arab parties to support his minority government, in exchange for a variety of concessions such as directing more government resources to support currently underfunded programs to support the living conditions of Israel’s Arab citizens.
最后,他可以向拉阿姆党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯提供一份工作,担任副部长(可能是外交副部长)或外交部总干事。这样做将赢得拉阿姆党的支持,并可能进一步巩固以色列与海湾阿拉伯国家的关系。
Finally, he could offer Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas in particular a job as either deputy minister (perhaps for foreign affairs) or director general of the Foreign Ministry. Doing so would win Ra’am’s support and likely further undergird Israel’s ties with the Gulf Arab states.
此类安排有先例可循。多年来,以色列的极端正统派宗教政党声称拒绝在任何以色列政府中担任部长职务(他们后来确实担任了)。另一方面,在那段时期,他们准备并确实担任了副部长职务。这一次,如果由阿拉伯人担任副部长,这种安排可能足以安抚利伯曼,使他同意加入由艾森科特领导的政府。
There is a precedent for such an arrangement. For years, Israel’s ultra-orthodox religious parties stated that they refused to take ministerial posts in any Israeli government (they have since done so). On the other hand, they were prepared to, and did, fill deputy ministerships during that period. Such an arrangement, this time with Arab deputy ministerships, might sufficiently mollify Liberman to make him agree to join an Eisenkot-led government.
内塔尼亚胡可能已经超越了戴维·本-古里安的纪录,成为以色列任职时间最长的总理,但近年来他严重损害了以色列的国际地位。他还因多线作战耗尽了军队,并主导了一种双轨经济,损害了该国大多数民众的生活水平和购买力。他的离去不会令人惋惜,不仅许多(甚至可能是大多数)以色列人如此,许多美国人(包括大多数犹太裔美国人)也是如此。
Netanyahu may have overtaken David Ben Gurion’s record as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, but in recent years he has seriously damaged Israel’s international standing. He has also exhausted his military with multi-front wars and overseen a dual-track economy that has undermined the standard of living and purchasing power of the majority of his country’s population. His departure would not be missed, not only by many (and perhaps most) Israelis, but also by many Americans, including a majority of Jewish Americans.
多夫·S·扎克海姆是战略与国际研究中心高级顾问,也是外交政策研究所董事会副主席。他于2001年至2004年担任国防部副部长(财务主管)兼首席财务官,1985年至1987年担任国防部副次长。
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.