第14频道分析师埃弗拉特·布伦纳表示，阻挠艾森科特的努力未必就能让内塔尼亚胡自己组建政府。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡正面临其政治生涯的转折点，此前“正直党”领袖加迪·艾森科特受命组建政府，而内塔尼亚胡所在的利库德集团内部担忧他可能失去权力。
Channel 14 analyst Efrat Brenner says obstructing Eisenkot’s efforts would not necessarily enable Netanyahu to form government himself Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a turning point in his political career after Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot was tasked with forming a government, amid concerns within his Likud party that he could lose power.
这一政治转折点最终可能让77岁的内塔尼亚胡重新回到议会反对党席位上，甚至彻底退出政治生活，因为他仍因腐败指控接受审判，一旦罪名成立可能面临监禁。
The political turning point could eventually leave Netanyahu, 77, back on the opposition benches in the Knesset, or even outside political life, as he continues to stand trial on corruption charges that could result in imprisonment if convicted.
内塔尼亚胡仍有政治和法律上的选择，可能让他继续掌权或最终重返执政，但这一次他的道路似乎更加复杂，因为66岁的艾森科特有多条组建政府的可能路径。
Netanyahu still has political and legal options that could allow him to remain in power or eventually return to office, but his path appears more complicated this time because Eisenkot, 66, has several possible routes to forming a government.
即便艾森科特成功组建一个不包括内塔尼亚胡的政府，这位利库德集团领导人仍可能像过去那样重返反对党领导人之位，同时寻求另一条重返总理职位的道路。
Even if Eisenkot succeeds in establishing a government without Netanyahu, the Likud leader could return to lead the opposition, as he has done before, while seeking another path back to the premiership.
然而，任何未来的东山再起都将取决于政治和法律事态的发展，包括可能出台一项法律，限制被起诉的议员受命组建政府，以及内塔尼亚胡腐败案的审判结果。
Any future comeback, however, would depend on political and legal developments, including a possible law restricting an indicted lawmaker from being tasked with forming a government and the outcome of Netanyahu’s corruption trial.
内塔尼亚胡加大了阻挠艾森科特组阁努力的力度，向极端正统派犹太政党施压，要求它们不要加入其联盟，并警告不要组建一个涉及或依赖阿拉伯政党的政府。
Netanyahu has intensified efforts to derail Eisenkot’s efforts to form a government by pressuring ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties not to join his coalition and warning against the formation of an administration involving or relying on Arab parties.
根据以色列法律，艾森科特最初有28天时间组建政府，总统伊萨克·赫尔佐格可将期限延长最多14天。
Under Israeli law, Eisenkot initially has 28 days to form a government, with President Isaac Herzog able to grant an extension of up to 14 days.
如果艾森科特失败，这一进程可能为另一位议员获得组阁授权铺平道路，其中可能包括内塔尼亚胡。
If Eisenkot fails, the process could pave the way for another lawmaker to receive the mandate, potentially including Netanyahu.
内塔尼亚胡本人曾争取赫尔佐格的授权，但阿拉伯议员的推荐使天平向艾森科特倾斜。
Netanyahu had sought Herzog’s mandate himself, but recommendations from Arab lawmakers tipped the balance in Eisenkot’s favor.
以色列总统赫尔佐格周日晚正式将组阁授权书交给艾森科特，此举若让“直路党”领袖成功组建联盟并赢得议会信任，将终结内塔尼亚胡的统治。以色列新当选议会将于周二开始任期。
Herzog formally handed Eisenkot the mandate on Sunday evening, in a move that could end Netanyahu’s rule if the Yashar leader succeeds in forming a coalition and winning the Knesset’s confidence. Israel’s newly elected parliament is due to begin its term Tuesday.
在艾森科特获授权前一天，内塔尼亚胡出现在视频中呼吁组建团结政府，此前他一直主张组建广泛的右翼政府。
A day before Eisenkot received the mandate, Netanyahu appeared in a video calling for the formation of a unity government after previously advocating a broad right-wing government.
自2022年底以来，内塔尼亚胡领导一个极右翼政府，被广泛描述为以色列历史上最右翼的政府。
Netanyahu has headed a far-right government since late 2022, widely described as the most right-wing in Israel’s history.
《马阿里夫报》政治分析师安娜·巴尔斯基形容内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团内部气氛是：官员们担心领导人可能“失去一切”，而一些党员正在等待他们所谓的“奇迹”。内塔尼亚胡领导利库德集团，该党在120席的议会中拥有27席，是最大党，正寻求维持与其右翼和极端正统派伙伴的联盟。
Maariv political analyst Anna Barsky described the mood inside Netanyahu’s Likud party as one in which officials fear their leader could “lose everything,” while some party members are waiting for what they described as a “miracle.”Netanyahu leads Likud, the largest party in the 120-seat Knesset with 27 seats, and is seeking to preserve alliances with his right-wing and ultra-Orthodox partners.
“加迪·艾森科特获得组阁授权，与此同时内塔尼亚胡开始努力阻挠变革政府的组建，”巴尔斯基周一撰文写道。
“Gadi Eisenkot received the mandate to form a government, and at the same time Netanyahu began efforts to obstruct the formation of the change government,” Barsky wrote Monday.
她说，内塔尼亚胡的行动集中在阻止极端正统派的“统一托拉犹太教党”加入艾森科特政府、说服反对派议员加入他，以及探讨阿维格多·利伯曼的“以色列我们的家园党”是否能被拉回右翼阵营。
She said Netanyahu’s moves center on preventing the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party from joining an Eisenkot government, persuading opposition lawmakers to join him and exploring whether Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party could be brought back into the right-wing camp.
然而，巴尔斯基表示，即使是资深利库德集团部长和议员中，也有人怀疑内塔尼亚胡能否阻止“统一托拉犹太教党”加入艾森科特，如果指导该党的拉比们收到满足其要求的提议。
Barsky, however, said that doubts exist even among veteran Likud ministers and lawmakers over Netanyahu’s ability to prevent United Torah Judaism from joining Eisenkot if the rabbis who guide the party receive an offer meeting their demands.
“在私下谈话中，利库德集团官员承认，内塔尼亚胡目前缺乏任何真正的政治筹码，无法保证极端正统派政党留在右翼阵营，”她写道。
“In private conversations, Likud officials admit that Netanyahu currently lacks any real political leverage that can guarantee that the ultra-Orthodox parties remain within the right-wing camp,” she wrote.
她援引一些利库德集团官员的话说：“我们剩下的就是等待奇迹。”巴尔斯基表示，如果艾森科特向犹太教统一党提出一个在兵役征召问题上可接受的妥协方案，内塔尼亚胡要阻止双方达成协议可能会变得困难。
She quoted some Likud officials as saying: “All that remains for us is to wait for a miracle.”According to Barsky, if Eisenkot offers United Torah Judaism an acceptable compromise on military conscription, it could become difficult for Netanyahu to prevent an agreement between the two sides.
即使是同情内塔尼亚胡的媒体声音，也承认其政治处境的困难，同时仍认为有可能阻挠艾森科特的努力。
Even media voices sympathetic to Netanyahu acknowledge the difficulty of his political position while still seeing possibilities for obstructing Eisenkot’s efforts.
亲内塔尼亚胡的右翼第14频道政治分析师埃夫拉特·布伦纳表示，尽管艾森科特试图弥合极端正统派犹太人政党与阿拉伯政党之间的分歧，内塔尼亚胡仍掌握着重要的政治筹码。
Efrat Brenner, a political analyst for the pro-Netanyahu right-wing Channel 14, said Netanyahu still holds important political cards despite Eisenkot’s attempts to bridge differences between ultra-Orthodox and Arab parties.
布伦纳说，如果内塔尼亚胡成功阻止犹太教统一党和沙斯党加入艾森科特阵营，亚沙尔党领袖可能无法获得组建稳定政府所需的议会支持。
Brenner said that if Netanyahu succeeds in keeping United Torah Judaism and Shas from joining Eisenkot, the Yashar leader could fail to secure the parliamentary support needed for a stable government.
稳定的议会多数需要至少61名议员，但内塔尼亚胡阵营和反对派阵营单独都不具备这个数字。
A stable parliamentary majority requires at least 61 lawmakers, but neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition holds that number alone.
内塔尼亚胡阵营赢得53个席位，反对派阵营获得48个席位，而阿拉伯政党获得19个席位。
Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats, compared with 48 for the opposition, while Arab parties secured 19.
布伦纳说：“即使犹太教统一党回归支持他，他的阵营也只有53名议会成员，意味着他仍需要额外八票才能达到61席的多数。”
“Even if United Torah Judaism returns to supporting him, his bloc would have only 53 Knesset members, meaning he would still need eight additional votes to reach the 61-seat majority,” Brenner said.
她补充道：“因此，阻挠艾森科特的努力并不一定能保证内塔尼亚胡自己成功组建政府。”
“Therefore, obstructing Eisenkot’s efforts does not necessarily guarantee Netanyahu’s success in forming the government himself,” she added.
内塔尼亚胡可能会试图加深艾森科特潜在合作伙伴之间的分歧，但这仍无法保证他获得下一次组阁授权。
Netanyahu could seek to deepen divisions among Eisenkot’s potential partners, but that would still not guarantee that he receives the next mandate.
即使艾森科特失败，赫尔佐格也不一定要专门指派内塔尼亚胡，因为下一步将取决于宪法程序、议会力量对比以及是否有其他议员表现出组建政府的能力。
Even if Eisenkot fails, Herzog is not required to specifically task Netanyahu, as the next step would depend on constitutional procedures, parliamentary balances and whether another lawmaker appears capable of forming a government.
布伦纳表示，艾森科特面临的挑战不仅限于凑齐足够议员通过信任投票，还包括组建一个能够通过预算、应对安全与政治挑战、并能在合作伙伴间的分歧中存续的政府。
Brenner said Eisenkot’s challenge is not limited to assembling enough lawmakers for a confidence vote, but also includes building a government capable of passing a budget, handling security and political challenges and surviving disagreements among its partners.
尽管67名议员的推荐给了艾森科特重要的政治优势，但并未化解支持他获得组阁授权的各党派之间的矛盾。
Although recommendations from 67 lawmakers gave Eisenkot an important political advantage, they did not resolve the contradictions among the parties that backed him for the mandate.
首批考验将包括：犹太教统一托拉党是否愿意谈判、利伯曼与极端正统派政党能否达成妥协、沙斯党的立场，以及反对派能否凑齐足够票数取代现任议长、利库德集团的阿米尔·奥哈纳。
Among the first tests will be United Torah Judaism’s willingness to negotiate, whether a compromise can be reached between Lieberman and the ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas’ position and whether the opposition can secure enough votes to replace incumbent Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana of Likud.
因此，接下来这段时间将决定艾森科特的授权是能转化为新政府，还是仅停留在无法转化为运作中的联盟的数字多数上。
The coming period could therefore determine whether Eisenkot’s mandate becomes a new government or remains a numerical majority that cannot be translated into a functioning coalition.
《马里夫报》政治分析师马蒂·图赫费尔德表示，艾森科特的授权在“内塔尼亚胡圈子中引发担忧”，但也给其助手们留下了一些乐观的理由。
Maariv political analyst Mati Tuchfeld said that Eisenkot’s mandate has caused “concern among Netanyahu’s circle,” but has also left his associates with some reasons for optimism.
内塔尼亚胡的盟友认为，艾森科特及其合作伙伴将难以满足极端正统派政党的要求，特别是关于给予其追随者免除兵役的立法。
Netanyahu’s allies believe Eisenkot and his partners will struggle to meet the demands of the ultra-Orthodox parties, particularly over legislation granting military-service exemptions to their followers.
图赫费尔德说，即使艾森科特与极端正统派政党达成协议，他能否组建一个稳定的61席联盟仍不清楚。
Even if Eisenkot reaches agreements with the ultra-Orthodox parties, Tuchfeld said, it remains unclear whether he can build a stable 61-seat coalition.
他说，“变革阵营”内的潜在合作伙伴可能会抵制在征兵问题上做出广泛让步，因为他们竞选时曾承诺扩大服役范围、更公平地分担负担。
Potential partners in the “change bloc” could resist broad concessions on conscription after campaigning on pledges to expand military service and distribute the burden more evenly, he said.
图赫费尔德表示，内塔尼亚胡反复呼吁组建团结政府，不仅仅是一个笼统的政治信息，更是试图为艾森科特阵营中反对组建依赖阿拉伯政党政府的党派留一扇门。阿拉伯公民约占以色列1000多万人口的20%。
Tuchfeld said Netanyahu’s repeated calls for a unity government are not merely a general political message but an attempt to keep the door open to parties within Eisenkot’s camp that oppose forming a government dependent on Arab parties. Arab citizens make up roughly 20% of Israel’s population of more than 10 million.
除了政治障碍，内塔尼亚胡还面临潜在的法律挑战，这可能影响他未来任何重返权力中心的尝试。
Beyond the political obstacles, Netanyahu also faces a potential legal challenge that could affect any future attempt to return to power.
10月23日，“以色列时间”新闻网站报道了一项拟议法案，该法案将限制被起诉的议员获授组建政府。根据现行法律，总统在与议会派系磋商并听取其推荐后，可以授权任何议会成员组建政府。
On Oct. 23, the Zman Yisrael news website reported on a proposed bill that would restrict an indicted lawmaker from being tasked with forming a government Under the current law, the president can task any Knesset member with forming a government after consulting parliamentary factions and hearing their recommendations.
以色列最高法院于2020年5月裁定，现有法律框架并不阻止因严重罪行被起诉的议员获授组建政府。
Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in May 2020 that the existing legal framework does not prevent a lawmaker indicted for serious crimes from being tasked with forming a government.
据“以色列时间”报道，反对内塔尼亚胡的政党可能寻求通过这项限制总统权力的拟议立法，使面临严重刑事指控的议员无法获得组建政府的授权。
According to Zman Yisrael, parties opposed to Netanyahu could seek to pass the proposed legislation restricting the president’s authority so that a lawmaker facing serious criminal charges could not receive the mandate to form a government.
然而，该拟议措施不会适用于通过它的那届议会的任期。相反，它将仅在另一次选举后生效。
The proposed measure, however, would not apply during the term of the Knesset that passes it. Instead, it would take effect only after another election.
该法案预期版本将包含一项条款，推迟其实施至通过该法案后的下一次选举之后，让选民有机会就这一法律变更表达立场。
The expected version of the bill would include a provision delaying its implementation until after the election following its passage, giving voters an opportunity to express their position on the legal change.
艾森科特若成功组建政府，因此可能将内塔尼亚胡送入在野阵营，而他重返权力的前景将继续取决于议会事态发展和法律问题。
Eisenkot’s success in forming a government could therefore send Netanyahu into opposition, while his prospects of returning to power would remain tied to parliamentary developments and legal issues.
尽管联合国决议支持在两国方案下建立巴勒斯坦国，但内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特均反对建立巴勒斯坦国。
Netanyahu and Eisenkot both oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state despite UN resolutions supporting its creation under the two-state solution.
除了在以色列面临的腐败审判，内塔尼亚胡还因2024年11月发布的一份逮捕令，被国际刑事法院通缉，罪名是指控其在加沙地带犯有战争罪和反人类罪。
In addition to his corruption trial in Israel, Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court under an arrest warrant issued in November 2024 over accusations of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip.