英国、美国和欧元区的政策制定者齐聚伦敦，为进一步加息奠定基础。与此同时，一家领先智库警告称，英国央行可能不得不将借贷成本提高至5%。
Policymakers from the UK, US and eurozone gathered in London laid the groundwork for further interest-rate hikes, as a leading think tank warned the Bank of England may have to raise borrowing costs to 5%.
交易员加大了对年底前进一步收紧政策的押注，此前央行官员表示，尽管本月能源价格下跌，他们对通胀日益感到不安。美国通胀数据高于预期，加剧了这些担忧。
By Tom Rees and Irina Anghel Traders ramped up bets on more tightening before the end of the year after central bank officials signaled growing unease over inflation despite the fall in energy prices this month. Those fears were stoked by a hotter-than-expected inflation print from the US.
英国央行副行长克莱尔·隆巴德利周二表示，利率可能再次上升，并警告称英国“低招聘、低解雇”的劳动力市场可能使缓解工资压力变得更加困难。在伦敦举行的英国央行观察家会议上发言时，她拒绝排除在12月连续加息的可能性。此前，英国央行上周进行了三年多来的首次加息。
BOE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said on Tuesday that interest rates are likely to go up again, as she warned Britain’s “low-hire, low-fire” labor market may make it harder to ease wage pressures. Speaking at the BOE Watchers Conference in London, she refused to rule out a back-to-back move in December after the BOE raised rates for the first time in over three years last week.
她说：“在没有证据表明通胀压力减弱的情况下，我仍然认为短期内可能需要进一步加息。”
“In the absence of evidence of weaker inflation pressures, I continue to think there is likely to be a case for a further increase in rates in the near term,” she said.
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在同一会议上警告称，下个月可能需要加息半个百分点。尽管油价有所缓解，但沃勒警告称，由于对中东供应的担忧持续存在，柴油成本不太可能获得同样的缓解。随后在伦敦接受彭博电视台采访时，欧洲央行首席经济学家菲利普·莱恩表示，如果数据在12月下次会议之前没有变化，那么欧元区提高借贷成本将是“审慎的”。
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who was appearing at the same conference, warned that a half percentage-point rate increase next month may be needed. While oil prices have eased, Waller warned diesel costs are unlikely to see the same relief as concern over supplies from the Middle East persists. Later in an interview with Bloomberg TV in London, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said it would be “prudent” to increase borrowing costs in the euro area if the data doesn’t shift before the next meeting in December.
能源价格已有所降温，此前共和党在美国中期选举中惨败，增强了人们对伊朗战争早日解决的希望。周二，布伦特原油一度跌破每桶90美元。然而，有人担心，价格压力已经在酝酿之中。在英国，家庭正准备迎接新年能源账单的激增，而美国的数据显示，10月份一项关键的消费者价格指标再次强劲上涨。
Energy prices have cooled since the Republican party’s crushing defeat in the US midterm elections boosted hopes of an earlier resolution to the Iran war. On Tuesday, Brent crude briefly slumped below $90 a barrel. However, there are concerns there’s already too much price pressure building in the pipeline. In the UK, households are braced for a New Year surge in energy bills, while data from the US showed a key gauge of consumer prices posted another firm advance in October.
英国有人担心，在一系列强劲的增长数据和劳动力市场趋于稳定的迹象之后，政策并不像央行认为的那样具有限制性。投资者认为英国央行最早在下个月再次加息的风险越来越大，预计12月17日加息25个基点至4.25%的可能性为70%，明年还会进一步加息。
There are worries in the UK that policy is not as restrictive as the central bank thought after a slew of strong growth data and signs the labor market is stabilizing. Investors see a growing risk of another BOE rate hike as soon as next month, pricing in a 70% chance of a quarter-point hike to 4.25% on Dec. 17 and more increases next year.
英国国家经济与社会研究所周三发布的一份报告称，即使英国央行第二次加息，通胀率仍将在2030年底之前高于2%的目标，远远超出货币政策委员会两到三年的窗口期。相反，该智库呼吁英国央行明年将利率上调至5%，以便提前18个月控制住通胀。该研究所表示，明年大多数薪酬谈判将在通胀率升至4%以上之际进行，这增加了能源价格冲击蔓延至经济其他领域的风险，因为工人试图保护自己的购买力。
In a report published Wednesday, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said a second BOE rate increase would still leave inflation running above the 2% target until the end of 2030, way beyond the Monetary Policy Committee’s two-to-three year window. Instead, the think tank called on the BOE to raise rates to 5% next year to bring inflation under control 18 months sooner. Most pay negotiations next year will take place as inflation climbs above 4%, increasing the risk that the energy price shock spills over to other parts of the economy as workers try to protect their purchasing power, NIESR said.
油价下跌可能会在加油站带来一些缓解，但英国每季度调整一次的能源价格上限意味着，家庭1月份的天然气和电费可能会上涨四分之一。
Falling oil prices may bring some relief at the petrol pump but the UK’s energy price cap, which resets once a quarter, means households could see gas and electricity bills jump by a quarter in January.
英国国家经济社会研究院首席经济学家詹姆斯·史密斯在新闻发布会上表示：“这里存在切实风险：央行已经落后于形势，而且会进一步落后，随后不得不大幅加息，从而导致金融环境出现额外的收紧。”该智库警告称，推迟加息会使通胀更加根深蒂固，增加日后更大幅度加息的可能性。
“There is a real risk here the Bank already sits behind the curve, gets further behind the curve, and then has to raise rates sharply, and you get some extra tightening in financial conditions,” James Smith, chief economist at NIESR, said in a press conference. The think tank warned that delaying hikes would make inflation more embedded, increasing the likelihood of larger rate rises later on.
在许多经济体面对能源冲击表现稳健的情况下，隆巴尔代利和沃勒表示，政策还不够紧，不足以压低通胀。
With many economies holding up well against the energy shock, Lombardelli and Waller suggested that policy has not been tight enough to bear down on inflation.
隆巴尔代利说：“关于限制性程度，换个角度看我对经济更具韧性的观点，其另一面就是货币政策的限制性没有我们以为的那么强。”
“On restrictiveness, another way of looking at my point about the economy has been more resilient, the flip side of that is monetary policy has been less restrictive than we thought it was,” Lombardelli said.
沃勒表示，政策并没有“像我18个月前以为的那样紧”。他说：“我们可能确实需要加息，才能对通胀形成任何下行压力。我认为仅仅维持现状是做不到的。”
Waller said that policy has not been “as tight as I thought we might have been 18 months ago.”“We probably definitely need to raise rates to put any downward pressure on inflation,” he said. “I think just sitting where we’re at is not going to do it.”