很难预测11月3日星期二举行的美国中期选举对俄罗斯与乌克兰之间战争的影响。毕竟，特朗普政府遵循着它自己的逻辑——这还是保守的说法。没有任何先例或理性框架可以作为接下来会发生什么的指南，尽管任命斯蒂芬·米勒担任白宫幕僚长提供了一个最初的线索。
t is difficult to predict the impact of the United States' midterm elections [held on Tuesday, November 3] on the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Trump administration, after all, follows – this is an understatement – its own logic. No precedent or rational framework can serve as a guide for what will happen next, even if the appointment of Stephen Miller [as White House chief of staff] offers an initial clue.
然而，有一件事十分突显。就在投票结束后，白宫发生了一个不同寻常的场景：第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普收到了弗拉基米尔·普京特使基里尔·德米特里耶夫的礼物，理论上此人正处于制裁之下，随后美国总统本人宣布了一项即将与克里姆林宫达成的关于欧洲安全的“重大而美好的协议”。
Yet one thing stood out. Just after the polls closed, a remarkable scene unfolded at the White House: [First Lady] Melania Trump received a gift from Vladimir Putin's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, who is theoretically under sanctions, and then the US president himself announced a "big and beautiful deal" about to be struck with the Kremlin concerning European security.
*不久之后，唐纳德·特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳发布了一条推文，勾勒了就该问题达成可能安排的基础——危机沟通、建立信任措施、透明度等等——理由是“30多年来，欧洲和俄罗斯一直在努力建立一个可持续的安全框架。”并行谈判在欧洲各地，许多人感到愤怒，因为这个安全框架在冷战结束时就已经确定：通过欧洲安全与合作组织、北大西洋公约组织与俄罗斯之间的协议以及《布达佩斯备忘录》（核大国向乌克兰提供的安全保证，以换取基辅放弃核武器）。俄罗斯在2002年2月对乌克兰发动军事进攻时公然违反了这一框架。库什纳客气地解释说，将与欧洲人进行协商，但没有提供进一步的细节。北约与欧盟并列提及，就好像它是一个美国不属于的组织一样。白宫预计，乌克兰、俄罗斯和美国代表将于11月10日和11日在阿布扎比举行的会议上取得重大突破。
Soon after, a tweet from Jared Kushner [Donald Trump's son-in-law] outlined the basis for a possible arrangement on this issue – crisis communication, confidence-building measures, transparency and so on – on the grounds that "for more than 30 years, Europe and Russia have struggled to establish a sustainable security framework." Parallel negotiations Across Europe, many were outraged because this security framework was already defined at the end of the Cold War: through the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, agreements between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia and the Budapest Memorandum (security guarantees offered to Ukraine by nuclear powers in exchange for Kyiv's renunciation of nuclear weapons). Russia openly violated this framework when it launched a military attack on Ukraine [in February 2022]. Graciously, Kushner explained that Europeans would be consulted, without providing further details. NATO was mentioned alongside the European Union, as if it were an organization the United States didn't belong to. The White House anticipates major breakthroughs at the meeting in Abu Dhabi between Ukrainian, Russian and American representatives on November 10 and 11.