唐纳德·特朗普总统将“美国优先”作为其外交政策的核心信条，这对以色列来说注定不会有好结果。那些持不同看法的共和党支持者不过是在自欺欺人。
President Donald Trump adopting “America First” as his animating foreign policy maxim was always going to end badly for Israel. Republican supporters of the Jewish state who thought otherwise were deluding themselves.
特朗普最近宣布终止美国对以色列的年度军事援助，叫停了已在流程中的数十亿美元资金。随后，副总统JD·万斯将耶路撒冷列为中期选举惨败的主要罪魁祸首之一，共和党自1974年水门事件后的溃败以来还未遭遇过这样的失败。虽然总统和他的副手都不会受到民主党下一次咖啡聚会的欢迎，但两党如今在这个面积相当于新泽西州、人口约1030万的国家上，可能达成的共识远超此前预期。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡可能下台，或许也不会软化这一前景。
Trump recently declared an end to annual US military aid for Israel, halting billions of dollars already in the pipeline. Then, Vice President JD Vance labeled Jerusalem as one of the chief culprits behind a midterm defenestration the likes of which the GOP hasn’t suffered since the post-Watergate wipeout of 1974. And while neither the president nor his No. 2 would be welcomed at the Democratic Party’s next coffee klatch, both parties may now agree on the New Jersey-sized country of roughly 10.3 million people far more than previously presumed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s potential ouster may not soften that outlook.
根据我多年来与重视美以同盟的共和党人的交谈，其中一些人可能会感到意外。
Based on my conversations over the years with Republicans who value the US-Israel alliance, some of them might be surprised.
但认为这个犹太国家能从一项蔑视国际同盟、厌恶对外援助的地缘政治战略中获得无限期豁免，从来都是一厢情愿。特朗普政府的转向——尤其体现在万斯身上，他是民粹右翼的宠儿，也是2028年的潜在领跑者——是不可避免的。这是特朗普决策的必然结果：他在2016年首次竞选白宫时，让一个几十年前就已被抛弃、声名扫地的口号重新复活；其本土主义和小家子气，与华盛顿在20世纪后期和21世纪初将成为的世界强国地位格格不入。
But it was always folly to assume the Jewish state would receive an indefinite carveout from a geopolitical strategy that scorns international alliances and loathes foreign aid. The Trump administration’s turnabout — especially embodied by Vance, darling of the populist right and a potential 2028 frontrunner — was inevitable. It’s the logical conclusion of Trump’s decision (while mounting his first White House bid in 2016) to rehabilitate a discredited slogan abandoned decades earlier; its nativism and small-mindedness was unfit for the world power that Washington would become in the latter 20th and early 21st centuries.
毫无疑问，特朗普是这个犹太国家1948年建国以来最亲以色列的总统之一。
Without a doubt, Trump has been among the most pro-Israel presidents since the Jewish state’s 1948 founding.
这位三军统帅将美国大使馆从特拉维夫迁至耶路撒冷，并支持内塔尼亚胡采取军事行动，以削弱加沙的哈马斯、斩首黎巴嫩的真主党。当然，总统还派出美军参战，作为消除拥有核武器的伊朗所构成威胁的联合行动的一部分。但在整个特朗普时代，“美国优先”一直是左翼和右翼煽动反对美以联盟的借口，也是他们反对华盛顿历来给予这个犹太国家的外交和军事支持的借口。
The commander-in-chief moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and backed Netanyahu’s military action to neuter Hamas in Gaza and decapitate Hezbollah in Lebanon. And of course, the president sent American forces to war as part of a joint operation to eliminate the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. But throughout the Trump era, “America First” has served as a pretext — on the left and the right — to agitate against the US-Israel alliance as well as the diplomatic and military support Washington has historically provided to the Jewish state.
民主党曾是以色列政治支持的中坚力量，如今却成了这个中东民主国家在国内最大的反对者聚集地。当第120届国会于1月召开时，持这种立场的民主党人将比以往任何时候都更多地准备在众议院和参议院掌握权力，这既得益于现任议员在以色列问题上立场的转变，也得益于新当选议员的崛起。
The Democratic Party, once the bulwark of political support for Israel, is now home to the biggest domestic opponents of this Middle East democracy. More Democrats of that persuasion than ever are poised to hold power in the House of Representatives and the Senate when the 120th Congress convenes in January, through a combination of shifting positions on Israel among incumbents and the ascension of newly elected lawmakers.
其中就包括密歇根州当选参议员阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德。他毫不掩饰地拒绝承认以色列作为犹太国家存在的权利，将阻止耶路撒冷从美国购买哪怕防御性武器，并希望彻底切断以色列与华盛顿的联盟。然而，埃尔-赛义德将其以色列政策描述为不过是对“美国优先”的一贯解读。正如我曾报道的那样，民主党对以色列日益增长的敌意，其种子是十多年前由内塔尼亚胡种下的，当时他与巴拉克·奥巴马就伊朗核协议公开争执，该协议后来被特朗普废弃。
Among them is Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan. He unabashedly refuses to recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, would block Jerusalem from purchasing even defensive weapons from the US and wants to sever its alliance with Washington altogether. El-Sayed, however, has characterized his Israel policy as nothing more than a consistent reading of “America First.”The seeds of the Democrats’ growing hostility toward Israel were planted more than a decade ago, as I’ve reported, by Netanyahu and his public feud with Barack Obama over an Iran nuclear deal later scrapped by Trump.
更近一些时候，民主党人对内塔尼亚胡政府在加沙 aggressive 推进战争提出异议，这场战争在哈马斯于2023年10月7日发动无端恐怖袭击后导致数万名巴勒斯坦平民死亡，那次袭击中有1000多名平民被杀害或被绑架。
More recently, Democrats have taken issue with the Netanyahu government’s aggressive prosecution of the war in Gaza that resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians after Hamas’ unprovoked terrorist attack on Oct. 7, 2023, when more than 1,000 civilians were murdered or kidnapped.
耶路撒冷的权力交替，即便发生，恐怕也难以改变美国左翼的公众舆论。
A changing of the guard in Jerusalem, if it happens, may do little to change public opinion on the American left.
以色列国防军前参谋长加迪·艾森科特，在以色列10月26日选举后获得了首次组建议会多数派的机会，该选举未产生任何拥有授权的政党联盟。但即便艾森科特成功结束内塔尼亚胡的执政，新政府的鹰派国家安全政策也很可能与其前任相似。以色列公众虽然厌战，但大多反对建立巴勒斯坦国，这一立场因10月7日大屠杀而更加坚定。这将维持美国民主党批评耶路撒冷者之间的原有现状。
Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of the Israeli Defense Forces, was given first crack at forming a Knesset majority following Oct. 26 elections in Israel that left no coalition of parties with a mandate. But even if Eisenkot succeeds in ending Netanyahu’s reign, the new government’s hawkish national security policy would likely resemble his predecessor’s. The Israeli public, albeit war weary, is largely opposed to the creation of a Palestinian state, a position hardened by the Oct. 7 massacre. And that would maintain the status quo ante among Democratic critics of Jerusalem in the US.
与此同时，“美国优先”理念开始侵蚀在右翼中形成的、持续近30年、始于20世纪90年代中期的对以色列的支持。
Meanwhile, the “America First” ethos has begun to chip away at the support for Israel that had grown on the right during a nearly 30-year period, beginning in the mid 1990s.
可以肯定的是，今年几乎没有共和党人因支持犹太国家而失去重新提名——这与我们在一系列民主党初选中所见的情况不同。事实上，在11月3日的选民出口民调中，59%的共和党选民表示美国对以色列的支持“不够强劲”，只有19%认为“过于强劲”。但这占共和党选民的五分之一，比例不小。
To be sure, few if any Republicans lost renomination this year because of their support for the Jewish state — unlike what we witnessed in a spate of Democratic primaries. In fact, in Nov. 3 exit polls, 59% of GOP voters said US support for Israel is “not strong enough.”Only 19% said it was “too strong.”But that’s a significant, one-fifth of the GOP electorate.
更令人担忧的是，该党亲以色列的坚定支持者们还要面对：这种反感在年轻保守派中被放大，他们和同龄选民一样，正在形成将伴随他们直到头发花白之后的观点。表达的观点范围很典型：以色列要为美国的问题负责（不知怎么的），美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）主导美国政治，内塔尼亚胡诱使特朗普卷入伊朗战争。而且，这些年轻人和同意他们的误导的老年人，并非仅仅是精英大学群体思维的受害者。
More worrisome, still, for the party’s pro-Israel stalwarts? This antipathy is magnified among young conservatives, who like all voters that age are forming opinions that will stick with them long after their hair starts graying. The range of views expressed is typical: Israel is to blame for the US’ problems (somehow), the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) dictates American politics and Netanyahu hoodwinked Trump into the Iran war. And it’s not as though these kids and the misguided elders who agree with them are simply victims of elite university groupthink.
保守派播客世界的皇帝和女皇，像塔克·卡尔森和梅根·凯利这样的知名人物，反复不断地宣扬这种意识形态。曾经声名显赫的传统基金会等智库的保守派思想领袖，以及美国最大的面向年轻选民的中右翼团体“转折点美国”的社交媒体王公贵族，也是如此。
The emperors and empresses of conservative Podcastland, prominent figures like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, fan this ideology ad nauseam. Ditto the conservative thought leaders at think tanks like the once venerable Heritage Foundation and the social media princelings at Turning Point USA, the largest center-right group for young voters in the country.
这已不仅仅是边缘的残余势力，尤其是这一派系现在在西翼拥有一位有办公室的拥护者。
That constitutes more than a fringe rump, particularly since this faction now has a champion with an office in the West Wing.
据万斯在中期选举次日发布的一篇长篇X帖子中详细阐述，共和党需要拥抱四项主题性政策，以从2026年的惨败中恢复，并重建2024年助特朗普获胜的令人印象深刻的联盟。“改变我们与以色列的关系”以及——你绝对猜不到——“把美国放在第一位”都在其中。那些认为美国对以色列的支持有利于美国国家安全的共和党人，不应嘲笑共和党最终可能对犹太国家掉头的说法。在特朗普出现之前，自由贸易和自由市场在党内是神圣不可侵犯的。
In Vance’s telling, as detailed in an extensive X post the day after the midterm elections, Republicans need to embrace four thematic policies to recover from their 2026 debacle and reconstitute the impressive coalition that carried Trump to victory in 2024. “Change our relationship to Israel” and — you’ll never guess — “Put America First” are among them. Republicans who believe US support for Israel benefits American national security shouldn’t scoff at the proposition that the GOP could eventually do a heel turn on the Jewish state. Free trade and free markets were sacrosanct in the party until Trump came along.
如果那些共和党人认真想保持美国对以色列的支持，他们的首要任务是将“美国优先”从党的词汇中剔除，并拒绝“美国优先不等于美国孤立”的谬论。事实上，它从来就只是那样。
If those Republicans are serious about preserving American support for Israel, their first job is banishing “America First” from the party’s lexicon and rejecting the canard that “America first is not America alone.”In fact, that’s all it ever was.