
中国正通过央行干预和出口产品结构转型维持出口竞争力,尽管外界担忧人民币升值可能削弱该国的全球贸易领导地位。
China is maintaining its export competitiveness through central bank interventions and a shift in its export portfolio, despite concerns that an appreciating yuan could weaken the country’s global trade leadership.
10月中国出口同比增长35.2%,达到4123亿美元;进口激增41.6%至3070亿美元,主要受中东冲突推高油价驱动。这些结果为政策制定者实施适度刺激以实现全年4.5%-5%的增长目标提供了空间。
Chinese exports rose 35.2% year-on-year in October, reaching $412.3 billion, while imports surged 41.6% to $307 billion, driven by rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. These results gave policymakers room to pursue moderate stimulus aimed at achieving annual growth of 4.5%-5%.
进口增幅扩大使该国月度贸易顺差从9月的1335亿美元收窄至10月的1053亿美元。尽管人民币兑美元汇率从年初的6.98升至11月2日的6.64,前10个月贸易顺差仍超过1.04万亿美元。
The rise in imports narrowed the country’s monthly trade surplus from $133.5 billion in September to $105.3 billion in October. The 10-month surplus surpassed $1.04 trillion despite the yuan strengthening against the dollar from 6.98 at the start of the year to 6.64 by Nov. 2.
亚洲市场分析师萨迪·凯马兹对安纳多卢通讯社表示,人民币兑美元升值约5%,触及四年高位,但因中国人民银行(央行)的干预,尚未显著损害竞争力。
Sadi Kaymaz, an Asian markets analyst, told Anadolu that the Chinese yuan’s roughly 5% appreciation against the US dollar, reaching a four-year high, has yet to significantly damage competitiveness due to the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) interventions.
央行决定上调外汇存款准备金率,引发市场预期其可能遏制人民币升值。
The bank had decided to raise the reserve requirement ratio on foreign exchange deposits, fueling expectations that it could halt the yuan’s appreciation.
凯马兹称,货币升值本应降低竞争力,但当前局势并未构成劣势,因为中国出口受人工智能(AI)硬件驱动。
Kaymaz said the currency’s appreciation should reduce competitiveness, but the current situation does not pose a disadvantage as Chinese exports are being driven by artificial intelligence (AI) hardware.
他说:“中国芯片出口额翻倍,出口对汇率波动的敏感度保持有限。”
“Chinese chip exports doubled in value and the sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations remained limited,” he said.
他指出,人民币升值使能源、原材料和中间品变得更便宜,抵消了货币走强的影响,而中国物价涨幅较贸易伙伴更慢也缓冲了冲击。
He noted that the yuan’s appreciation made energy, raw materials and intermediate goods cheaper, offsetting the impact of the stronger currency, while slower price increases in China compared with its trading partners also eased the impact.
“纺织、玩具、家具等低利润行业对汇率敏感,出现了轻微放缓,但这一次人民币升值对出口竞争力的影响并没有预期那么显著,中国人民银行遏制升值的努力起到了作用,使出口商能够随着时间推移消化汇率收益,”他补充道。
“Low-margin sectors like textiles, toys, and furniture are sensitive to exchange rates and they saw a slight slowdown, but this time the appreciating yuan is not affecting export competitiveness as significantly as expected and the PBoC’s efforts to curb its appreciation played a role in this, allowing exporters to absorb the exchange rate gains over time,” he added.